Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Cleveland Browns
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Cleveland Browns.
Cap Liabilities: $184,899,822
Cap Space: $21,466,782
Potential Cut Candidates
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, 28 (all ages given as of the end of the 2020 season)
Cap #: $15.75M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings:$15.75M
Likely to be cut? Yes. Beckham has never been the game-changing wide receiver the Browns thought they were getting when they traded for him prior to the 2019 season, and has often been a headache. Given that he is undersized, underperforming, and coming off of an ACL tear, this is a pretty easy breakup. The Browns could use the cap space freed up by his release to go after one of the other wide receivers that should be available on the market this off-season.
David Njoku, TE, 24
Cap #: $6.013M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $6.013M
Likely to be cut? Yes. When you combine bad attitude with subpar performance, you typically don’t keep your job. Njoku has never lived up to his first-round pedigree. The Browns have a reliable starter in Austin Hooper, who was signed before the 2020 season, and drafted Njoku’s replacement in Harrison Bryant, who provided competent play when pressed into service this season.
Sheldon Richardson, DT, 30
Cap #: $13,666,668
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1,666,668
Cap Savings: $12M
Likely to be cut? Yes. I was on the fence about this one, but I just don’t think his salary justifies his play, and they presumably drafted his replacement, Jordan Elliott, in the third round of last year’s draft. They’re under the cap, so I could see a scenario where Richardson stays, but it also wouldn’t be at all surprising to see them cut bait and take a dead money cap hit of less than $2M.
Jarvis Landry, WR, 28
Cap #: $14.8M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1.5M
Cap Savings: $13.3M
Likely to be cut? No. Landry makes a reasonable salary given his production - remember, he played through a hip injury throughout most of 2020 - and he has not been a malcontent like Beckham. He is a reliable target for Baker Mayfield and is probably the most consistent piece of the passing game. Even though they could move on with little penalty, Landry seems safe. There is an outside chance that they keep Beckham over Landry, but that does not seem like a probable outcome at this point.
J.C. Tretter, C, 29
Cap #: $11.075M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1.625M
Cap Savings: $9.45M
Likely to be cut: No. Tretter is head of the NFLPA (the players’ labor union), which could always leave him exposed as a potential target. But Cleveland’s success in 2020 was largely on the basis of the ground game, so it makes sense to try to return as many of the starting offensive linemen as possible. He does have a high cap number for a center (6th-highest in the NFL), but the Browns can afford it given their cap situation.
Adrian Clayborn, DE, 32
Cap #: $3.5M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $500K
Cap Savings: $3M
Likely to be cut? No. Olivier Vernon is a free agent and got hurt in the regular season finale, and Clayborn is a reasonably priced veteran who can provide starter’s snaps if needed. It’s always hard to find pass rushers on the open market, and Clayborn’s combination of skill, experience, and reasonable salary probably keep him in Cleveland for one more season.
Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
Cutting Beckham, Njoku, and Richardson would free up an additional $33.763M, which would give the Browns a total of $55,229,762 in cap space. That is ample space, but the question is, what will they do with it? The elephant in the room is the contract of 4th-year player Baker Mayfield. Are they willing to extend him, based on what he has shown the past two seasons? Have him play under his 5th year option in 2022? You would think that they might be able to get him at a discount given that he hasn’t performed as an above average quarterback in the NFL, but then again, this is Baker Mayfield and his huge ego we’re talking about. He’s probably going to want to break the bank. Even an extension comparable to the one signed by Rams QB Jared Goff a couple seasons ago would give Mayfield a cap hit in the range of $35M. Is he worth that kind of coin? The Browns will likely be looking to extend running back Nick Chubb before his contract expires at the end of 2021. Using Bengals’ RB Joe Mixon’s recent deal as a benchmark, the Browns can expect that an extension would average a cap hit of around $12M per season. If both Chubb and Baker are extended, with cap hits for the extensions rolled into the 2021 season, it only leaves around $8M to play with for the rookie class. Alternatively, if they don’t extend Baker, and opt to let him play out 2021 while exercising his team option for the following season, they would have considerably more cash to spend on free agents.
Also, they have the option of cutting Landry, Tretter, and/or Clayborn. Taken together, those cuts would free up an additional $25.75M. However, none of those three cuts appear likely. The Browns are in really good shape, cap-wise, and really don’t have to make any cuts at all if they don’t want to. Opting to wait another year to make a decision on Mayfield may be the saving grace for Sheldon Richardson, who could stay on the roster just because there might not be a pressing need to shed his salary, and he hasn’t shown the same attitude problem that he has in prior stops.