Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Baltimore Ravens
INTRODUCTION (For analysis, skip down to the bold font). Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on the Baltimore Ravens.
Cap Liabilities: $150,401,049
Cap Space: $28,468,951
Potential Cut Candidates
Mark Ingram, RB, 31
Cap #: $6,333,334
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1,333,334
Cap Savings: $5M
Likely to be cut? Absolutely. There have been rumors that Ingram is likely to be cut, perhaps as soon as today (as this article is written on January 19). Ingram was phased out of the Baltimore running game as 2020 progressed, becoming a health scratch in the final quarter of the season as the team began to feature 2nd round pick J.K. Dobbins. Without question, Dobbins is the future in Baltimore. Note, however, that fellow running back Gus Edwards is a restricted free agent this year, so the cupboard could be pretty bare for the Ravens behind Dobbins and Justice Hill. Expect the Ravens to try to retain Edwards and to bring in another runner with a Day 3 draft pick or as a priority undrafted free agent.
Brandon Williams, DT, 31
Cap #: $14.42M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $6.92M
Cap Savings: $7.5M
Likely to be cut? Probably not. Although his cap number is high and he is an aging veteran, the savings aren’t really enough to justify the dead money hit. He’s probably going to be back in Baltimore for one more year, unless they feel that they need the cap space to extend one of their other players.
Marcus Peters, CB, 27
Cap #: $13,468,118
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2M
Cap Savings: $11,468,118
Likely to be cut? No. This one is tough, given that they could free up over $11M in salary, but it’s not like that’s cap space that they need right now. The Ravens were very tough against the pass in 2020, and bringing Peters back helps ensure that the secondary remains a strength moving forward. He’s still plenty young enough. Perhaps it makes sense to try to rework his deal to lower his cap number, though.
Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
First, let’s talk about one big-salaried player we did not consider. DL Calais Campbell has a $15M cap number, and he’s getting long in the tooth. But he has $5M guaranteed, is a great locker room presence and leader, and his release would only free up $5M. He’s not going anywhere. If the Ravens cut Mark Ingram, as expected, that would free up an additional $5M, bringing their total cap space to $33,468,951. Setting aside about $12M for the rookie class would still leave the team with about $21M to extend their own players or spend on free agents. Priorities for the team are expected to include 2020’s franchise player Matt Judon and DE Yannick Ngakoue, whom they traded a third round pick to acquire at the deadline. It would be vintage Ravens to let Ngakoue walk, as they would likely receive a third-round compensatory pick if he signs elsewhere. In other words, they would have been able to rent him for half a season just to drop down a few spots in the third round. That’s smart business. Still, if the choice is between Ngakoue and Judon, it’s hard to get a read on which player Baltimore would prefer. Judon’s play dropped considerably in 2020 after a 9.5-sack season in 2019… but that also may suppress his market value. Ngakoue plays a premium position, but there is also the concern that he’s a bit of a diva, having already worn out his welcome in two organizations prior to the completion of his rookie deal. It’s probably telling that Minnesota bailed on him so quickly after trading a second round pick for him prior to the start of this season. Plus, Ngakoue is a player who is likely looking to break the bank in free agency. My gut call is that Ngakoue walks, and Judon is resigned on a team friendly deal, with the remaining cap space going toward lesser free agents to fill any remaining holes on the roster. However, if the team parts ways with Williams and/or Peters, that may give them sufficient cap space to re-sign both Ngakoue and Judon.