Potential Salary Cap Cuts: Cincinnati Bengals
Every year, there are “surprise” cuts from NFL rosters. I respectfully submit that most of those cuts are not all that surprising for those paying attention. NFL teams are guided by the salary cap. Teams that are at or near the cap need to shed the contracts of overpriced veterans whose production does not match their cap number. This article series focuses on the salary cap situation of each team, and analyzes those players who are likely to be cut prior to the 2021 season.
There are several important numbers we will be examining to analyze the data. First, we will consider a team’s total cap liabilities. Next we will look at the team’s total cap space. Teams that are under the cap are able to “roll over” a certain amount of unused cap space to following seasons, so the total salary cap for each team actually differs a little bit. Teams that are under the cap have far fewer cuts to make (if any) than teams that are over the cap. Also, for purposes of the exercise, assume that each team will need $10-$12 million to sign its rookie class.
Once we begin looking at individual contracts, there are four components we consider: (1) Cap number, (2) guaranteed money, (3) dead money, and (4) cap savings if cut. The cap number is self-explanatory. This number is not necessarily the player’s salary, but is the value that the player’s salary counts toward the salary cap. Guaranteed money is real money. This is the money that the player will definitely earn from the team, regardless of whether he is on the roster. Many people are surprised to learn that most NFL contracts don’t have guaranteed money beyond the second year. A player with guaranteed money remaining on his contract is much less likely to be cut.
Dead money is the “cap hit” a team takes if a player is cut. In other words, players who are cut can still have a portion of their cap number count towards the salary cap. And the final number we’ll look at, cap savings, is the amount of money that will be freed up under the salary cap if the player is cut. All data is taken from www.overthecap.com (“OTC”). I have compiled this information over the past several weeks, so it may not be up to date if OTC has updated or changed its data since the end of the NFL regular season. For purposes of this exercise, assume that any cuts would be post-June 1 cuts, as designating a player as a post-June 1 cut typically results in greater cap savings.
This version of Potential Salary Cap Cuts focuses on my hometown team, the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cap Liabilities: $145,064,472
Cap Space: $42,082,347
Compared to most teams, the Bengals are actually in really great shape. They have ample money to sign their rookie class, bring in a few free agents, and/or extend their own players (Jessie Bates please!). Nevertheless, they do have several veterans who could be on the chopping block in 2021.
Potential Cut Candidates
Geno Atkins, DT, 32 (all ages given as of the end of the 2020 season)
Cap #: $14.7M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $2.6M
Cap Savings: $12.1M
Likely to be cut? Yes. Atkins was an afterthought in 2020, compiling only one tackle over the course of the entire season.
CJ Uzomah, TE, 27
Cap #: $6,158,334
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1,083,334
Cap Savings: $5.075M
Likely to be cut? Yes. $6M is a huge salary for a guy who is not even a replacement-level player, and who is now coming off injury. The 2019 second-round selection of Drew Sample likely sealed Uzomah’s fate long before he was injured.
B.J. Finney, LG, 29
Cap #: $3.5M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $3.5M
Likely to be cut? Yes. It’s either him or fellow guard Xavier Su’a-Filo, as they make essentially the same salary. You would assume that the Bengals are going to spend big money on a guard in free agency - or at least, they should - which means there isn’t going to be room for a high priced backup.
Xavier Su’a-Filo, LG, 29
Cap #: $3,233,333
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $333,333
Cap Savings: $2.9M
Likely to be cut? No. As noted above, it’s likely either him or Finney, and cutting Finney results in more cap savings. Plus, XSF has a higher draft pedigree, which likely saves him unless Finney drastically outplays him.
Bobby Hart, RT, 26
Cap #: $6.9M
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $1M
Cap Savings: $5.9M
Likely to be cut? No… for now. It really depends on what the Bengals do in the draft. If they bring in an offensive tackle with a high draft pick, Hart’s spot would be in danger. As much as Hart has been a whipping boy for Bengals nation for the past several years, he really wasn’t as bad as his reputation suggests during the second half of 2020. At minimum, he cleaned up his penalties considerably (this dude is still known in Cincinnati as “False Start Bobby Hart”). No matter what, the Bengals should look to upgrade on him sooner rather than later. Cutting him would free up nearly $6M that the Bengals could spend on other areas of need. Former offensive line coach Jim Turner was Hart’s biggest supporter, so with him out of the picture, there may be no one left in the organization to defend him.
Giovani Bernard, RB, 29
Cap #: $4,766,667
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $666,667
Cap Savings: $4.1M
Likely to be cut? No . . . for now. This is another one that depends on what the Bengals do in the draft. They just signed Joe Mixon to a big-money deal, they have Trayveon Williams under contract as the pass-catching specialist, and they have Samaje Perine as the RB4/special teamer. Bernard’s job security likely comes down to whether a replacement is drafted in April. What may save his job is his longevity with the team, and team captain status. This is a team that is sorely lacking veteran leaders, so keeping Bernard around for one more season could make sense. It’s really the only way to justify paying more than $4 million to a part-time running back who is getting long in the tooth.
7. Josh Tupou, DT, 26
Cap #: $2,133,000
Guaranteed: $0
Dead Money: $0
Cap Savings: $2,133,000
LIkely to be cut? No. Tupou opted-out of the 2020 season, which may have rubbed some in the organization the wrong way after they gave him a hefty salary bump at the end of 2019. But if Geno is cut, they’ll need Tupou next to D.J. Reader for 2021, because Christian Covington just doesn’t cut it.
Cap Space if Likely Cuts Made
Cutting Atkins, Uzomah, and Finney would free up an additional $20.675M, which would give the Bengals a total of $62,757,347 in cap space. That is ample money to give safety Jessie Bates a contract extension at the top of the market, re-sign or franchise DE Carl Lawson, sign the rookie draft class, and bring in a couple of impact free agents (hopefully one at guard). If they also cut Su’a-Filo, Bernard, Hart, and Tupou, it would free up an additional $15M. One thing to note, though, is that the Bengals rarely get close to the cap. I suspect they’ll likely hover around $20-$30M under the cap by the time it’s all said and done.