Sneaky Picks for Wide Receiver Volume
Fantasy football is a game that’s all about volume. The number of opportunities that a player receives has a strong correlation with fantasy production. Wide receivers can’t catch the ball if they aren’t being targeted, and they can’t score touchdowns unless they’re touching the ball. So, we should all want the guys who are touching the ball the most and scoring the most. (Insightful, right?)
In the early rounds, it’s not hard to identify these types of players. We know who the fantasy superstars are, the dudes like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Cooper Kupp who rack up tons of catches and yards and touchdowns. But in the later rounds, we often lose sight of who the top targets are for each team. Maybe we write guys off because they didn’t have lofty touchdown totals the year before. Maybe we try to shy away from perceived “bad” offenses. Whatever the reason, we don’t always embrace the opportunity to snag target hogs on various offenses.
At the end of the day, you want teams’ WR1s on your fantasy squads, even the ones on perceived “bad” offenses. (Even “bad” offenses throw at least 400 times.) Number one wideouts are the guys with the easiest paths to targets and, consequently, production. Here at Hail Mary Football, we have put together a list of all of the WR1s who are going in the ninth round or later. We wrote a similar version of this article last year, and identified the following “volume” WRs who vastly outperformed their ADP:
Garrett Wilson, Jets - 9th round ADP, finished as WR21 in PPR scoring and won rookie of the year.
Christian Kirk, Jaguars - 9th round ADP, finished as the WR11 in PPR scoring.
Jakobi Meyers, Patriots - 12th round ADP , finished as WR28 in total points. Meyers may be the most underappreciated receiver in fantasy. He has finished as a WR3 in back-to-back years. He is a guy that no one in your league will want, but he is a useful starter that you can get at bye-week-filler price.
Christian Watson, Packers - 12th round ADP, finished as the WR25 in standard scoring. The early part of his season was derailed by injuries, but once he got healthy, he was a monster. From Weeks 10-13, he finished as a top-10 WR every single week. He single-handedly propelled a lot of fantasy teams into the playoffs.
We had other calls whose seasons were derailed due to injury (Treylon Burks and Kadarius Toney), but overall, the process here was sound. If you spend a couple of your late picks on wide receivers who should see volume, you’ve got a decent chance of one of those guys hitting, and giving you a WR2/WR3 option at the position. We’ve used this process for several years, and the results are steady.
Players are not eligible for this list unless their ADP falls in the 9th round or beyond. Remember, we are only looking at guys who, based on Yahoo! ADP (as of July 22), are the first wideouts drafted from their teams (i.e., the team’s perceived WR1). You should pounce on these players at their current price, as they should have ample opportunity to outproduce their draft day cost this season:
Diontae Johnson, Steelers (Round 9). Johnson is going as the first pick of Round 9, so he barely qualifies. But he qualifies! I’m clicking the DRAFT button next to Johnson’s name every single time. His PPR finishes the past three seasons: 21, 8, 30. Last year was the WR30 finish, and that was considered a “down” year. And that was a year where he just had bad touchdown luck, as he didn’t find the end zone at all last season despite playing in every game. He’s a prime regression candidate. You’re looking at a guy whose floor is as a WR3, and whose ceiling is as a WR1. Snap him up.
Hollywood Brown, Cardinals (Round 9). I’ve never been a Hollywood Brown fan. Never. But now, after DeAndre Hopkins’ release, he’s the clear lead dog on an offense starved for pass-catchers. In 2020, he finished as a WR3 and in 2021, he finished as a WR2. Last year he fell to WR44, but that’s primarily due to the fact that he missed 5 games. He’s viewed primarily as a deep threat, but he’s got the ability to be a PPR maven as well. In 2021, he caught 91 balls. The Cardinals offense is an unknown this year with a new coaching staff, and who knows who will be under center due to Kyler Murray’s ACL injury, but sometimes uncertainty leads to the best buys in fantasy. WIthout unknown pass catching options surrounding him, Brown is the only safe bet in the Cardinals’ WR room. It would be shocking if the coaching staff didn’t feature him.
Kadarius Toney, Chiefs (Round 10). I know, I know. Many of us have been burned by Toney in the past. As President George W. Bush once said, “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice… won’t get fooled again.” But think about what’s going on here. Take away the player’s name. What if I told you that the Chiefs were using their first round pick on a wide receiver, and you could get that wide receiver in Round 10. Wouldn’t you be interested? Because that’s essentially what happened here. Toney was a first round pick in 2021. His career has been derailed mostly by soft tissue injuries. And yes, while those do tend to recur, we’re talking about a guy that could be Patrick Mahomes’ WR1 at a TENTH ROUND COST. Don’t out-think the room. Picking Toney in the double-digit rounds is all reward, no risk.
Odell Beckham/Rashod Bateman, Ravens (Round 10). Ordinarily I avoid Ravens wideouts like the plague, but I’m hoping that the shift from Greg Roman to Todd Monken will lead to a respectable increase in pass volume. Odell Beckham is currently going as the first Ravens wideout off the board, at pick 116, but I’m probably not investing in him. It’s been a really long time since Beckham was a top-flight fantasy producer. He hasn’t had 1,000 yards since 2019, and he hasn’t had double-digit TDs since 2016 (his third year in the league). He’s now had 2 ACL tears, is 30 years old, and hasn’t played a regular-season football game since the end of the 2021 season. There are a lot of reasons to avoid Beckham. I’m including him on here only because he fits the rubric. But if I’m investing in a Ravens wideout, I’m probably taking Rashod Bateman, who is going about 7 picks later, instead. We used this same logic when analyzing Allen Lazard and Christian Watson last year (preferring Watson even though Lazard was rated higher), so if you’re going to target the top wideout from the Ravens, I’m fine with it if you want to take Bateman instead of Beckham. I’d probably prioritize all of the other players on this list (except maybe, MAYBE, the Texans) over Beckham.
Adam Thielen, Panthers (Round 11). This dude has fallen from grace pretty fast. And I get it. His production has declined fairly steadily over the past few years, and it’s never a great bet to invest in WRs heading into their age-33 season. But the opportunity is there. He’s competing with DJ Chark, who has only had one good season in his first 5 in the league, and second round pick Jonathan Mingo, whose season-high for receiving touchdowns in college was 5. I get it if people want to invest in the shiny new toy in Mingo instead of Thielen, but Thielen at least has a decent track record to fall back on. Even “in decline” over the past two years, he’s finished as WR28 and 29, respectively, in PPR. In the 11th round, you don’t need him to be a stud. If he’s a WR3, like he has been the last two years, you’re still getting great value.
Juju Smith-Schuster, Patriots (Round 11). He’s the dude that no one gets excited about. Several years ago, when he played second fiddle to Antonio Brown, people thought he had the chops to be a WR1. That was expecting too much. As it turns out, he’s just a really good slot, and not anything more than that. But it’s hard to see why people have soured on him this much. Last season he finished as WR27. How does that sort of production fall to the 11th round? At worst, he slots into the spot vacated by Jakobi Meyers - which, as noted above, consistently yields WR3 seasons. I’d love to snap up Juju as my first option off the bench. He’s going to give you consistent production during your bye weeks and is a reliable weekly option should you suffer an injury to one of your starters.
Nico Collins, Texans (Round 11). I don’t love Nico Collins, but it’s hard to get jazzed about anyone in the Texans’ pass catching corps. I wouldn’t be surprised it all if TE Dalton Schultz leads this team in receiving. Among receivers, Collins is being drafted as the first Texan off the board. I’d probably be more likely to take a flier on free agent signee Robert Woods or rookie John Metchie III, even though Woods is 30 years old and Metchie didn’t have a great prospect profile even before his health issues. But one of these Texans’ wideouts is likely to return significant ROI, and it could well be Collins. Still, given how unsettled that situation is, I’m probably more likely to take all of the other players on this list, except maybe Beckham.
These aren’t the sexiest names, but all of these guys are likely to see serious volume, and volume is the name of the game in fantasy. Keep them in mind when you’re filling out the back end of your roster in drafts.