Don't Overlook Age When Drafting
If you scour the interwebs, surely you will find articles about how running backs decline at a certain age, and wide receivers as well. You should rely on your analyst of choice to determine when that “age cliff” occurs, but for me, I tend to avoid running backs over 27 and wide receivers over 30. Below you will find some big-name running backs and wideouts who are above those thresholds this season. Ages are listed as of the start of the season.
Running Backs
James Conner, Cardinals. Believe it or not, Conner will be 28 years old this year. He has never played a full season in the NFL, and never rushed for 1,000 yards. His failure to reach the 1,000-yard threshold, combined with his age, makes him a risky, touchdown-dependent selection for your fantasy squad. That’s not great news, since the Cardinals offense is projected to be one of the worst in the league this season.
Dalvin Cook, Free Agent. Like Conner, Cook will also be 28 this season. His first time ever playing a full season was last year. He’s not quite as touchdown-dependent as Conner because he contributes more in the receiving game, and he has four straight seasons of 1100+ yards rushing. He’s probably still a worthwhile pick once he lands with a team, but he carries some age and injury risk.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers. Another 28-year-old, Ekeler is coming off his best NFL campaign and is routinely selected as a Top 5 draft pick in redraft leagues. His age is mild cause for concern, though, as is his production history. Through 6 seasons, he has never rushed for 1,000 yards. He makes his mark as a PPR maven, having racked up 70 or more catches in 3 of the past 4 seasons.
Ezekiel Elliott, Free Agent. You probably didn’t need this article to tell you that Elliott is on the decline. The Cowboys realized as much when they released him this off-season. He’s also 28, but has a lot more tread on his tires than most others on this list. His carries have declined for four straight seasons, but he’s still been a reliable source of touchdowns. He’s never had fewer than 8 combined touchdowns over his 7-season career. He’s a steady, reliable RB2, though his days of rushing for 1600 yards and 16 scores are long in the rearview. Elliott has never matched the stellar production of his rookie season in 2016, and he’s 4 seasons removed from his last 1100-yard campaign.
Leonard Fournette, Free Agent. Lombardi Lenny is also entering his age-28 campaign, but he has considerably less wear on his tires than some of the others on this list, as he has only 2 seasons with at least 200 carries. However, he also only has 2 seasons with 1,000 yards rushing. In recent years, though, he has developed some ability in the passing game, having caught 69 or more balls in 3 of the past 4 seasons. He is a free agent, so it’s unclear what his role will be this season.
Melvin Gordon, Ravens. Buyer beware! Gordon is entering his age-30 season, which is the beginning of the end for most running backs. He’s been remarkably productive over the course of his career, but it seems he’s reached the end of the line. He may only be a camp body until JK Dobbins gets healthy.
Derrick Henry, Titans. Hard to believe that this dude is already 29, but that’s what happens when an inept coaching staff wastes years of your prime by having you sit behind a washed-up Demarco Murray and the diminutive Dion Lewis. Is he going to hit the age cliff, or is the light usage from his first few years in the league and his superhuman build going to allow him to continue to thrive as he approaches 30?
Kareem Hunt, Free Agent. Hunt is another big-name player turning 28 this season, and it looked like he was already out of gas last year. He may not even wind up on a roster this year.
Aaron Jones, Packers. I don’t know why Packers head coach Matt LaFleur seems to hate the 28-year-old Jones. It’s like the guy tries to find reasons to take him off the field. Jones has that ideal rushing/receiving skill set, and still does not have a ton of wear and tear, having only three seasons with 200+ carries. He’s probably even more dangerous in the receiving game, having scored at least 5 receiving touchdowns each of the past 2 years. It would not be at all surprising to see him do even more damage through the air this year, given the Packers’ dearth of veteran pass-catchers behind Christian Watson.
Alvin Kamara, Saints. As if his looming suspension wasn’t enough to scare you away, his increasing age should be. Statistically, he’s coming off the worst seasons of his career, the first time he hasn’t finished as an RB1. Things just aren’t the same for him in New Orleans without Sean Payton and Drew Brees. We cannot take for granted that Kamara will return to his previous heights.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons. Patterson turns 32 this year, an age at which most running backs have retired. But he’s not a traditional running back; he didn’t start playing the position until he turned 30, as he came into the league as a wide receiver and kick returner. He’s going to have a role this year, but the carries are going to go primarily to Tyler Allgeier and rookie phenom Bijan Robinson.
Verdict: I’m avoiding Conner, Dalvin Cook, Zeke, and Fournette at cost, as the risk is too high. I’m willing to pay face value for the other guys, but Ekeler and Henry are the only ones I’d trust as my RB1, and Jones is the only one I’d trust as an RB2.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams, Raiders - Adams turns 30 this year. He may have one more good season left in him, but the end is near. When it goes, it goes quickly. I’m probably ok with him for 2023, but watch out in 2024.
Keenan Allen, Chargers - Speaking of 30-year-olds, Allen hit that magic number last year. This is historically the age when wideouts start to seriously decline. Allen was never “fast” in the first place, so any loss of speed or quickness could seriously affect his overall abilities. His calling card has always been his route-running, though, and that’s a skill that often can carry players into their 30s. But he’s a guy that has struggled throughout his career with injuries. I’m probably avoiding him this year at his third round price tag.
Odell Beckham, Browns. Beckham turns 30 this season, but age isn’t the only thing he has going against him. There’s also the fact that (a) now he’s playing in a run-first Ravens offense, (b) he hasn’t reached 1,100 yards since 2016, and (c) he hasn’t scored 7 touchdowns since 2016, either. That was a long, long time ago. This guy just hasn’t been the same dude since his first three seasons in the league. You can safely ignore him. Let someone else pay for the name.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers. Evans turns 30 this year, but I’m not as concerned about him as I am with some other folks his age. He’s never finished as worse than a WR2, and he’s going outside the Top 30 WRs right now. People are overreacting to Tom Brady’s retirement. I’m not as afraid of Baker Mayfield as most managers seem to be. He’s had some productive moments in the NFL. He can feed Evans in the red zone. I’m buying at cost.
DeAndre Hopkins, Titans. Hopkins turns 31 this year, and hasn’t been productive in a couple years. I’m totally out on this guy. The last time he finished as a WR3 or better was 2020, and he’s been battling injuries and suspensions since then. Often times for players at his age, injuries are the beginning of the end (see A.J. Green and Julio Jones for recent examples). Hopkins could still be a decent source of touchdowns, but his age and injury risk means I’m probably not going to end up having him on any of my rosters. He’s still being drafted as a WR2, but he just hasn’t returned that type of value in a long time.
Marvin Jones, Jaguars. Jones is 33 years old. He’s a role player at this point in his career, and probably isn’t seeing many snaps once Jameson Williams returns from suspension.
Cooper Kupp, Rams. Ok, so you’re going to draft Kupp regardless of his age. I get it. But it’s worth noting that he turns 30 this year, as he entered the league at age 24. It’s unlikely he repeats his performance from a couple seasons ago, but he’s still a safe bet to finish as a top-12 fantasy receiver. The Rams have nothing else. He’s going to see a hefty target share and is still well worth his first round price tag.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks. Lockett turns 30 this year, but he’s got the sort of finesse game that ages well. He has at least 8 touchdowns in five straight seasons. He’s never a popular draft pick, but he always finishes somewhere between WR8 and WR15. He’s as consistent as a cup of coffee. Jaxon Smith-Njigba may be Seattle’s future, but Lockett is still Seattle’s present.
DeVante Parker, Patriots. Talk about failure to launch. This dude just never really delivered on the promise he showed as a first round pick coming out of Louisville. In eight seasons in the league, Parker has exactly ONE 1,000-yard season. He has exactly ONE season with more than 4 touchdowns. He also has durability problems, as he’s never started all 16 games. It’s mind-boggling that the Pats gave him a 3-year, $33 million extension this year. He doesn’t justify that contract. It’s safe to ignore him in all but the deepest of leagues.
Adam Thielen, Panthers. The 33-year-old (yikes!) Thielen hasn’t had 1,000 yards receiving since 2018. He also hasn’t played a full season since then, and his body has shown signs of breaking down. (Surprise, surprise - a guy starts breaking down as he approaches age 30… it’s almost like that’s the theory behind this article.) His fantasy production has been buoyed by touchdowns, with 30 combined scores over the past 3 seasons. Can he do it again? His age says no, but he’s also now playing as the primary option for Frank Reich’s new Bryce Young-led offense. There really aren’t any viable wideouts on this team other than him. The depth chart contains guys like the perennially disappointing DJ Chark, rookie Jonathan Mingo, 2nd round bust Laviska Shenault, and Shi Smith. So maybe, just maybe, through sheer volume, he can be useful again. I probably won’t be drafting him as a starter, but he’s falling past Round 9, which makes him a decent buy.
Michael Thomas, Saints. It’s been a minute since we’ve seen a good season out of the 30-year-old Thomas. He started his career with a bang, with 4 straight seasons of 1,100 yards or more, capping the hot start to his career with a 149-catch, 1,725 yard season in 2019. A lot has changed in the Big Easy since then. He hasn’t finished better than WR93 since before COVID-19 existed. Ignore him.
Robert Woods, Texans. Woods is 31 and is on his third team in the past two years. He looked like a shell of his former self with the Titans last year. The Texans depth chart at wide receiver is pretty bare aside from Nico Collins, as he’s really the only established pass-catcher of note. Still, Collins and John Metchie seem to be better upside picks than Woods.
Verdict: I’m avoiding several former “league winners” at their current cost, such as Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins. I’m OK with Cooper Kupp and Devante Adams at their current ADP. I’m bullish on Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, and Adam Thielen. And I have zero interest in Odell Beckham, Marvin Jones, DeVante Parker, Michael Thomas, and Robert Woods, regardless of price.