Bold Predictions for the 2023 Fantasy Season
Fantasy football, like many industries, is plagued by “conventional wisdom.” But conventional wisdom is often wrong. Going against the grain, at the right time, is how you win championships. Below are ten “bold predictions” which, if they pan out, could steer your fantasy team toward a title this season. And if they don’t work out, well, there’s a reason these predictions were bold.
We had several laudable calls last year:
We predicted Chris Olave would be the top rookie wideout (he ended up #2), even though he was getting drafted behind Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Treylon Burks.
We helped you avoid Cam Akers. He was going as a Top 15 RB, early in Round 3, and we cautioned that he would finish outside the top-20 at his position. He wound up as the RB35, and he didn’t have a single game at the top 30 at his position until Week 13 - when those who took him were likely already eliminated from playoff contention.
We predicted DJ Moore would score 8 touchdowns, doubling his previous career high. He had 7 touchdowns. Close enough!
We steered you away from Dak Prescott, cautioning that he would fall outside the top-10 QBs due to a year-over-year decline in rushing. Prescott finished as the QB18.
For the late-round TE crowd, we recommended David Njoku, predicting that he would finish as a TE1. He finished as a top-10 tight end, squarely within that TE1 realm.
In other words, we led you to difference-makers who helped you compete, while steering you clear of those “big names” who could have torpedoed your season. Here are our bold predictions for 2023:
Justin Herbert finishes as the top QB in fantasy. Why it will happen: As a rookie, he was QB9. As a sophomore, he was QB2. And in year three, the wheels fell off, with Herbert suffering injuries to his primary pass catchers while battling through a rib injury of his own. And he still finished among the top 12 at his position. This year, he gets Kellen Moore as his new offensive coordinator, whom Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy let go in Dallas because he called too many pass plays. Wait, what? Too many pass plays sounds like a great thing for a fantasy QB! And the team added Quentin Johnston to Herbert’s weaponry. It’s gonna be a big year. Herbie is a screaming value at the end of Round 5.
This year’s top rookie wide receiver will be . . . Quentin Johnston. See above. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is going to open up this offense and have Herbert sling it like he never has before. And the front office felt that the key to making that happen was to spend their first round draft choice on Johnston. It’s not hard to predict how they want this offense to function: Keenan Allen is your move-the-sticks guy; Austin Ekeler is your catch-it-out-of-the-backfield guy; Mike Williams is your deep threat; and Johnston is your YAC guy. Given all the weapons in this offense, Johnston should regularly see single coverage. He should not have any difficulty abusing backup corners in the AFC West. I like his combination of talent, situation, and opportunity more than any of the other rookies in this class.
Travis Kelce has fewer fantasy points than … Mark Andrews. Why it’s bold: because he’s Travis freaking Kelce. Why it will happen: Father Time will catch up to him sooner rather than later. Why not in his age-34 season? High level production at that age is fairly unprecedented. Plus, Andrews is in his prime, and the Ravens seem committed to being more pass-oriented under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
Mike Evans finishes as a Top-20 wideout. Through mid-July, Evans wasn’t even being drafted among the top 30 WRs. This is a gross overreaction to Tom Brady’s retirement. Mike Evans has finished as a WR2 or better every single season of his career. He’s got 9 straight 1,000-yard seasons. In two-thirds of his pro seasons he’s scored at least 8 touchdowns. Even in a “down” year last year, he still had 1,100 and 6. Don’t sweat the QB change. Evans is going to give you WR2 production at a WR3 price tag.
Cam Akers finishes as an RB1. Why it’s bold: Akers is currently going outside the top 20 running backs and isn’t coming off the board until Round 5. I was vehemently against drafting him at all last year (see last year’s article linked above), given his recent Achilles’ injury. Achilles injuries, by and large, have historically been career enders for running backs. But D’Onta Foreman has shown us in recent seasons that maybe that’s not always the case. It looks like the player needs at least 18-24 months to recover. Akers has now passed that time frame, so I’m optimistic. To close out last year, while the rest of the Rams offense was cratering, Akers had 6 straight top-24 fantasy finishes. That included a finish as RB1 in Week 16 where he scored 33.7 fantasy points. There’s a reasonable chance he finds even more room to run this season with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp back healthy. He’s a worthwhile investment at his fifth round price tag.
DeAndre Hopkins finishes outside the top-36 WRs. Hopkins is presently being drafted as the 19th WR off the board, early in round 5. That’s insane to me for a guy who (a) turns 31 this year, (b) plays in a run-first offense, and (c) hasn’t been a starting-caliber fantasy wideout since 2020. Seriously. Look it up. He finished as the PPR WR45 in 2021 and the WR47 in 2022. Why invest premium draft capital in old dudes who haven’t been productive for a long time? You’re buying the name, not the game, at this price tag.
Russell Wilson finishes as a QB1. Currently going as QB18, he hasn’t finished as a QB1 since 2020. But before that, he posted 9 straight years as a QB1 (Top 12), including FIVE finishes in the Top 3. And now he gets Sean Payton, the QB whisperer. Russ is still young enough (34) to rebound to his peak form, and I’m betting on the future Hall of Fame coach to get him there. I’m all in on DangeRuss this year.
Bijan Robinson has fewer fantasy points than … Nick Chubb. This is more an endorsement of Chubb than a disdain for Bijan, but I can argue it from both angles. As the argument against Bijan, the hype has gotten out of control. Yes, I agree he’s good. Yes, I also agree he’s the best RB prospect since Saquon. But right now, he’s going as the 7th player off the board. I just can’t get behind that price tag. Not when he’s still splitting a backfield with Tyler Allgeier (who had 1,000 yards rushing last year as a rookie) and Cordarrelle Patterson (who should still get the passing-down work). Bijan is talented, but people seem to be ignoring the other dudes on that team who will get touches out of the backfield. As for Nick Chubb… he’s just rock-solid. His fantasy finishes at RB over the past 4 years are: 8, 11, 13, 6. And that’s when he was splitting work with Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson, neither of whom are still on the team. Nick Chubb is about as reliable as they come. I’d much prefer him in Round 2 than Bijan in Round 1, assuming both players stay healthy.
This year’s sleeper tight end is … Trey McBride. McBride is currently being drafted outside the Top 30. But he has all of the ingredients for a breakout. He is athletic. He has good draft capital. And he plays on a team with a dearth of pass-catchers. His only real competition for targets is Marquise Brown, who will certainly get his, and Zach Ertz, who is old and coming off a torn ACL. Even if Brown gets a 25% target share, that still leaves plenty of targets for McBride. Regardless of who is under center, McBride should be emphasized in the passing game. It is not difficult to envision him getting to a 20% target share in this offense.
Jahmyr Gibbs is outscored by David Montgomery. This is noteworthy only because Gibbs is being drafted in Round 4 (and creeping up into Round 3), and Montgomery is being drafted as the last pick of Round 6. People are drafting Gibbs at his ceiling, but aren’t considering his floor. What if he only inherits D’Andre Swift’s role and repeats that type of stat line? Swift barely finished as a RB2 in PPR. And conversely, what if Montgomery finishes with Jamaal Williams’ stat line? Williams just missed being a RB1, finishing as RB13. Respectfully, David Montgomery is better than Jamaal Williams. A lot better. But I’m not entirely certain that Jahmyr Gibbs is better than D’Andre Swift, nor am I convinced that he’s more durable than Swift. Swift is 5’9, 215; Gibbs is 5’9, 199. Why are so many people convinced Gibbs is a better bet to stay healthy? I’m going to play the odds and opt for Monty over Gibbs where I can. Montgomery is getting the goal line carries either way, but he’s likely to inherit the pass-catching role if Gibbs gets nicked up. Conversely, I don’t think Gibbs becomes the goal-line and early down banger if something happens to Montgomery. Montgomery is the better value in this backfield.