Early 2023 ADP Values
We’ve reached July. The fantasy football degenerates have been mock drafting since the conclusion of the NFL draft in late April, and the casual fans are just starting to get into drafts, or will do so over the next month or so. The last couple months of drafts have shown several early values based on average draft position (ADP), which we will highlight for you in this article. (Elsewhere in this draft kit, you can find our Do Not Draft list.) We provided similar analysis last season, directing your attention to the following players who were ADP values:
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (drafted as a 13th round pick, finished as QB8).
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (drafted as a 6th round pick, finished as RB10 in standard scoring and RB15 in PPR)
Cole Kmet, TE, Bears (drafted as a 13th round pick, finished as TE7 in PPR).
Drake London, WR, Falcons (drafted as an 8th round pick, finished as WR31 in PPR, so a low end WR2/high end WR3)
Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars (drafted as a late 5th round pick, finished as RB17 in PPR).
We are striving to identify similar values in 2023. At this point, the following players should be considered values at their current ADP) All draft position data is taken from ESPN as of July 28:
Chris Olave, WR, Saints (Round 4, ADP 42.1). I’m in the tank for Olave this year. He was arguably better than Garrett Wilson last year, but Wilson is going nearly two rounds higher. Olave finished as WR25 in PPR as a rookie, and the Saints have improved his QB situation by bringing in Derek Carr. They haven’t really added any pass catchers of note, so for this offense to succeed, it’s probably going to have to be the Olave show in 2023. I fully expect him to finish the season as a WR1. He’s going to continue to ascend.
Justin Fields, QB, Bears (Round 5, ADP 53.1). Konami code extraordinaire. You’re getting a safe floor with Fields due to his rushing alone. If he develops even mildly as a passer, watch out. He could put up numbers similar to Lamar Jackson’s MVP year. The fact that he’s not even one of the top 5 quarterbacks off the board is mind-boggling. You can have Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen in Round 2. I’ll be perfectly satisfied with the better value that Fields presents in Round 5.
Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals (Round 7, ADP 81.9). I didn’t like Hollywood Brown as a prospect. Too small. I didn’t like Hollywood Brown as a Raven. Not enough passing volume. But suddenly I’m in on Brown now that he’s a Cardinal playing with Colt McCoy, with Kyler Murray rehabbing a torn ACL? You betcha! Fantasy football is a volume-driven game. Brown projects to get that volume now that Nuk Hopkins was released. There are no other established pass catchers on that roster (other than Zach Ertz, who is also rehabbing a torn ACL). Brown has shown us in the past he can be a high-volume receiver, as he racked up 91 catches in 2021 en route to his first 1,000-yard season. It would not be at all surprising to see the Cardinals rely on him similarly this season. Brown is going to be the focal point of the passing attack because Arizona doesn’t have any other options. You should gladly scoop him up as your WR3 or WR4.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Eagles (Round 8, ADP 87.2). Swift has a lot of haters, but that probably has more to do with how much time he spends on the trainers’ table than him actually burning them with his play on the field. He has finished as an RB2 in each of his three NFL seasons. Do we really expect him to be worse now that he’s running behind the Eagles’ dominant offensive line and playing in their high-octane offense? He’s got RB2 as his floor, but top 5 RB as his ceiling.
David Montgomery, RB, Lions (Round 8, ADP 94.6). Over the course of his career, David Montgomery has never finished worse than a RB2. Isn’t that wild? The dude is as reliable as a cup of coffee. When things break right, he has RB1 upside (like in his sophomore year when he finished as RB4 in PPR). But generally, he’s just a reliable, back-end RB2. And that’s useful in fantasy. By switching teams from the Bears to Lions this off-season, he improved his supporting cast. And he’s stepping into the role that just propelled Jamaal Williams - JAMAAL WILLIAMS! - to a top-10 RB finish in standard scoring. With all due respect to Williams, Montgomery is the better player. He projects as the between-the-tackles and goal-line rusher for the Lions, and that’s a valuable role. He’ll finish the year as a RB2, like he always does, but you’re going to be able to draft him as a backup. And if Jahmyr Gibbs is too small to hold up, Monty might see some of the passing work, too.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins (Round 10, ADP 115.0). Tyreek Hill is going in Round 1. Jaylen Waddle is going in Round 2. For those guys to justify their ADP, their quarterback is gonna have to produce. And their quarterback, barring injury, is Tua Tagovailoa. This isn’t rocket science.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Patriots (Round 10, ADP 118.7). Here are Juju’s fantasy finishes in every season where he has played more than 12 games: WR20, WR8, WR17, WR27. That’s production you can use in Round 10! The hate on Juju has simply gone too far. If he’s healthy, he’s a lock as a top-30 wideout. He’s not going to win you your league, but he sure ain’t gonna lose it for you, either. Not at this price.
Gabe Davis, WR, Bills (Round 11, ADP 124.6). Like Juju, the hate on Gabe Davis has gone too far. People were overly excited about him heading into 2022 because of his offensive explosion in the Bills’ classic 2021 playoff game with the Chiefs. He was getting drafted all the way up in Round 4, and he certainly didn’t live up to that draft day cost. But it’s not like he had a bad season. He still finished as WR24 in standard scoring and WR36 in PPR. Is there any reason to think he won’t at least match those finishes this year? Remember, Josh Allen was dealing with an elbow injury in the second half of last season, and that may well have affected his ability to get the deep ball to Davis. This is a WR2/3 type who is being drafted as a WR5. Pounce.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks (Round 12, ADP 139.3). I always love me some rookie running backs. Charbonnet is really good at two things: short yardage running, and catching the ball out of the backfield. Those happen to be the same two things that Kenny Walker III isn’t good at. They also happen to be the same two things that lead to high-value fantasy touches: goal line carries and receptions. I prefer Charbs to Walker straight up this year, but especially at a 7 round price difference.
Gerald Everett, TE, Chargers (Round 13, ADP 154.1). This is more about the scheme and less about the player. Kellen Moore has been brought in as the new offensive coordinator, and his scheme turned plodder Dalton Schultz into a perennial top-12 tight end. I have every confidence he can work the same magic for Everett. I expect Everett to top his previous career high of 4 touchdowns, and to easily finish as a TE1 in fantasy.