2022 Weekly Hail Mary Recap: What Did We Learn?
Every week of the season, we give you at least one streamer at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Our recommendations are chosen from those players who are available in at least 1/3 of Yahoo! leagues, so we’re picking from the dregs. In 2022, our target for the season was a 50% hit rate overall. We fell slightly below that goal, hitting on 44% (51 of 116) of our recommended plays. However, we did hit the 50% target at two different positions: quarterback and running back! Below, you will find more in-depth analysis on each position, as well as our goals for 2022.
Quarterback
At quarterback, we hit on 14 of our 28 recommended plays, an even 50% hit rate. We did considerably better than our outlier 2021 season, where we hit on only 37% of the recommended plays. 2021 was a weird year. I still am of the belief that QB is an easy position to stream. I remain a late-round QB truther, and streaming advocate, even in an era where more and more fantasy analysts are showing a willingness to go with QBs in the first five rounds. In 2023, our goal is to hit on quarterbacks at a rate of 51%.
Running Back
At running back, we hit on 13 of 24 recommended plays, for an outstanding 54% hit rate. This marks a year-over-year trend of hitting on RBs at better than 50%, and it reinforces my belief that it is running back - not quarterback - that is the easiest position to stream. For 2023, the goal will be to hit on running backs at a rate of 55%.
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver, as usual, was one of the most difficult positions to stream, and reinforces my belief that you must load up on wide receivers in the early rounds of your draft. You typically start more WRs than any other position, they are in the lowest supply, and they are extremely hard to replace off the wire. I repeat: LOAD UP ON WIDE RECEIVERS. In 2022, we hit on recommended WRs at a 39% clip (16 of 41), which follows up on 2021’s 41% success rate (14 of 34). So basically, we’re hitting on 2 out of every 5 recommendations. We’ll continue to tweak our model, but to a certain extent we may be chasing an unattainable goal. Still, if you’re in dire straits, hitting on 2 out of 5 ain’t bad. Any MLB slugger would take that batting average. For 2023, we’re trying to get back to average, at a 40% hit rate.
Tight End
Tight end was another tough position this year, because it’s just so touchdown dependent. We hit at only a 35% rate this year (8 of 23), though we did start strong (7 of 11) over the first five weeks. We did a lot worse down the stretch. Over several years of data, we’ve learned that tight end is particularly difficult to stream over the final third of the season. At that point, most guys with a pulse are rostered. So while streaming tight ends can be viable in the first quarter of the season, it’s often best to hold onto some of those reliable guys that we identify early, and just ride them out through the rest of the season. I’m becoming more and more amenable to drafting tight ends early. My ideal build is probably 4 WRs, 1 RB, and 1 TE through the first six rounds. In 2023, we’ll be seeking to again hit at a 45% rate on tight ends, which is where we finished in 2021.
Year in Review: Overall Weekly Hit Rate for 2022
Week 1: 2/2 QB, 0/2 RB, 1/2 WR, 2/2 TE
Week 2: 1/2 QB, 2/3 RB, 1/3 WR, 2/3 TE
Week 3: 1/3 QB, 1/2 RB, 3/3 WR, 0/2 TE
Week 4: 2/2 QB, 2/2 RB, 0/3 WR, 1/2 TE
Week 5: 0/2 QB, 1/2 RB, 1/4 WR, 2/2 TE
Week 6: 1/1 QB, 2/3 RB, 2/3 WR, 0/2 TE
Week 7: 1/2 QB, 1/3 RB, 2/3 WR, 0/2 TE
Week 8: 2/2 QB, 1/1 RB, 0/4 WR, 0/1 TE
Week 9: 0/3 QB, 0/0 RB, 2/3 WR, 0/2 TE
Week 10: 0/2 QB, 0/1 RB, 0/2 WR, 0/1 TE
Week 11: 2/2 QB, 1/1 RB, 2/3 WR, 0/1 TE
Week 12: 0/1 QB, 1/2 RB, 1/4 WR, 0/1 TE
Week 13: 1/2 QB, 1/2 RB, 0/3 WR, 0/1 TE
Week 14: 1/2 QB, 0/0 RB, 1/1 WR, 1/1 TE
Note that some weeks have a zero denominator because the recommended plays were declared inactive prior to game day.
Our best calls from 2022
We had several great calls in 2022 that, if you picked them up, should have turned into every-week starters for you. Our highlights from this past year include:
Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets (recommended in Week 3) - Wilson ended up taking off en route to a rookie-of-the-year season. He’s routinely drafted in Round 2 of 2023 fantasy drafts.
Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks (recommended in Week 4) - Smith went undrafted in most leagues, but finished just outside the top 5 in total fantasy points among QBs.
Taysom Hill, TE, Saints (recommended in Week 5) - This was one of our best calls EVER. Hill had 4 total scores and over 100 yards rushing in Week 5.
Kenny Walker III, RB, Seahawks (recommended in Week 6). After a slow start, Walker was available in enough leagues to be recommended in Week 6. He rushed for over 1,000 yards and had 9 rushing scores on the season.
Christian Watson, WR, Packers (recommended in Week 11). In the middle of the season, Watson ripped off four straight weeks as a WR1 and propelled many teams into the fantasy playoffs.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (recommended in Week 11). Starting in Week 11, Pacheco was a RB2 or better for the remainder of the season in every week other than Weeks 15 and 16.
We hope to build on these successes to help you identify the players who can lead you to a title in 2023. Thanks for being a loyal follower of Hail Mary Football!