Early 2023 "Do Not Draft" List
Elsewhere in our draft kit, you can find our Early 2023 ADP values - the guys you definitely want at their current cost - and here we flip the script to the guys who are way overpriced, and whom you should avoid at their current ADP. We did a similar version of this article last season, and the results were pretty good. For example, we were down on Alvin Kamara at his second round price tag (17th overall), and Kamara didn’t even finish among the top 17 running backs in standard scoring, let alone top 17 players. He had his worst year in the league. Similarly, we were avoiding Rams RB Cam Akers, who was being drafted inside the Top 30 picks, but finished outside the top 100 players - behind fantasy luminaries such as Cole Kmet, Parris Campbell, and Mack Hollins.
So, we’ve got receipts to back up our tAeKs. This season, I will not be drafting any of the following players unless their price drops significantly. Average Draft Position is taken from ESPN drafts as of July 24:
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs, and Davante Adams, WR, Raiders (1st Round). These dudes are amazing. I’m just wary of spending a first round pick on them given their age. Father Time eventually catches up to every great athlete. I’m particularly concerned about spending a first round pick on Kelce entering his age-34 season. Adams is entering his age-30 season, so slightly less of a concern, but still enough that I’m likely to pass on him in favor of other options in Round 1. If these dudes slip to Round 2, then by all means snap them up, as the risk is lessened there and the upside merits the selection.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs; Josh Allen, QB, Bills; Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (2nd Round). This is an overreaction to last season. Yes, each of these dudes are great. But they play onesie positions, and the opportunity cost to get them means you’re passing on studs at wideout and running back, where you have to start more guys who are in lesser supply and greater demand. I’m not against these players in a vacuum. I’m just solidly against the opportunity cost. Even if you want to go quarterback “early” you can get similar production out of Justin Herbert in Round 5 or Trevor Lawrence in Round 6.
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (3rd round). This one makes me genuinely sad. Because Joey Brr is my dude. But right now he’s going 28 overall, and that’s just crazy talk. You can’t waste premium picks on QBs, but especially not on QBs who are essentially dropback passers. You’re telling me you’d rather have Burrow than Breece Hall or Aaron Jones or Deebo Samuel or Chris Olave? Get outta here with that.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars (3rd Round). Etienne is going as the 25th player off the board, essentially the first pick in the third round. I used to be an Etienne truther, but based on what we’ve seen over the past 12 months, that’s just insane to take him that early. First, he lost the starting job in last year’s training camp to James Robinson, who wasn’t even completely back from an Achilles injury (remember, dudes who suffer Achilles injuries have no explosiveness.) Then, when he wrested the starting gig away from Robinson, he got hurt. The guy is seemingly always nicked up with something (like when he missed his rookie year with injury). And he plays for head coach Doug Pederson, who has always preferred a backfield committee approach. Let’s not forget that this team drafted Tank Bigsby in Round 3 earlier this year, further solidifying the idea that they’re looking to have Etienne share more of the touches this year. I’m having a really tough time believing that Etienne is going to outperform his draft day cost, given all of these issues. I doubt I own any shares of his stock this year.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers (4th Round). I’m not drafting a 31-year-old WR whose previous season was marred by injury. Often times, injuries are the beginning of the end for over-30 wideouts. I direct your attention to Adriel Jeremiah “AJ” Green and Quintorris “Julio” Jones. I’m interested in Allen, but only if he drops to a WR4 price tag. Otherwise, the age and injury risk is too great for me.
James Conner, RB, Cardinals (5th Round). Are you kidding me? James Conner, in the 5th? With guys like JK Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, Alex Mattison, Cam Akers, and Alvin Kamara still on the board? Hard, hard pass. Conner has never been particularly durable, having never played a full season. And he’s a dude who has only been good when the situation around him is optimal. The 2023 Cardinals project to be a dumpster fire offensively, to put it charitably. They may have Colt McCoy under center and no reliable pass catchers aside from Hollywood Brown. He’s a high-volume back that doesn’t project for a high volume of touches. Look elsewhere unless you’re desperate. This reeks of a “dead zone running back” that you want to avoid.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (6th Round). Pacheco is going as one of the first few picks of the sixth round, and I just don’t get it. I think he’s getting a Chiefs bump. I’m more dismayed by the pick given the RBs who are going after him, such as JK Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, Alvin Kamara, Javonte Williams, and David Montgomery. I’d rather have all of those dudes (and Dalvin Cook, assuming he lands a starting gig somewhere). Pacheco is just a two-down thumper, nothing more. He could easily lose that starting job in Kansas City.
49ers D/ST (7th round). Folks, we don’t draft defenses in Round 7. Ever. Grab some more wide receivers here. You’ll be happier with Drake London, Mike Williams, or Marquise Brown. Or if you want a onesie position, grab Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson, or Kyle Pitts. Just don’t draft a defense. Please.
Justin Tucker, K, Ravens (8th round). Folks, we don’t draft kickers in Round 8. Ever. Good grief. Just wait a few rounds and get Daniel Carlson or Evan McPherson, who will likely outscore Tucker anyway. In this frame you can get quality producers like David Montgomery, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, or Michael Pittman.
Odell Beckham, WR, Ravens (9th round). Don’t draft Odell Beckham. Dude hasn’t been good since the Obama administration. Seriously. Look it up. That’s the last time he had double digit touchdowns. Even if you want to just look for 1,000 yard seasons, he hasn’t done that since before COVID existed. He’s 30, he’s washed up, and he’s playing for a Ravens franchise that has NEVER been known for its wide receivers. For me, he’s an easy guy to avoid in favor of dudes with more upside like this year’s rookies, Kadarius Toney, or the Broncos running backs.