Using OC Historical Trends to Predict Performance

“Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” Any financial advisor worth her salt is going to tell you that. And while it’s admittedly true that past performance is no guarantee of future results, it’s nevertheless a pretty darn good indicator of likely future outcomes.

We use that logic all the time when we are evaluating players. Look at the back of the dude’s football card. It’s a pretty good indicator of who he is as a talent. Here at HailMaryFootball, we take that analysis one step further. We look not only at the back of the player’s football card; we look at the back of his coach’s card, as well. There are insightful nuggets to be gleaned by analyzing each team’s offensive coordinator, to see how they have measured up in seasons past. That gives us some reasonable insights as to how the fantasy players in their offenses might be expected to perform in 2023. We’ll examine the historical performance of each team’s offensive coordinator, going division-by-division and starting with the AFC.

Baltimore Ravens (Todd Monken) - Monken was the architect of the Jameis WInston/Ryan Fitzpatrick YOLO-ball Bucs from 2016-2018. In 2 of those 3 seasons, the Bucs finished Top 5 in passing yards, and in every one of those seasons they were Top 10 in passing scores. This guy is going to try to force Lamar Jackson to throw more. Probably not “top 10 passing yardage season” more, but more than he did in the past. He’s also shown that he can call a run-heavy offense, as his 2019 Browns were top 12 in the league in rushing yards. The bottom line is that he’s likely to call a Ravens offense that finishes in the top half of the league.

Cincinnati Bengals (Brian Callahan) - Callahan continues to improve (or perhaps, more realistically, Joe Burrow continues to improve). He went from 7th in passing yards and 7th in scores in 2021 to 5th and 2nd in 2022. However, despite having Joe Mixon, the team’s rushing production has been fairly pedestrian. In four seasons under Callahan, the team has never finished better than 23rd in rushing yards, and never better than 14th in rushing touchdowns. Mixon’s hype has long exceeded his fantasy output. Although the Bengals now boast the best offensive line he’s ever had, you shouldn’t be surprised if Mixon continues to disappoint.

Cleveland Browns (Alex Van Pelt) - Van Pelt has 4 years of experience calling plays at the NFL level. He got his first opportunity as offensive coordinator for the 2009 Buffalo Bills, but that didn’t go so well. But he’s been calling plays for the Browns since 2020, and the results have been encouraging. He’s never had an offense finish worse than 6th in rushing yards, and never worse than 7th in rushing touchdowns. He’s usually in the middle third of the league in passing scores, and there’s reason to believe that will improve now that he’ll have a full season of Deshaun Watson. Browns pass-catchers may provide better-than-expected ROI.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Matt Canada) - Man, this guy is inept. In two seasons at the helm, he has failed to finish in the top 20 in the league in yards or scoring. He seems committed to the run game, though, as in 2022 the Steelers were 11th in rushing scores and 16th in rushing yards. Thus, Najee Harris could be a decent target in Round 3. The Steelers were last in the league in passing touchdowns, though, and I’m not a believer in Kenny Pickett, so there’s little reason to believe they’ll be much better in that department in 2023.

Buffalo Bills (Ken Dorsey) - Dorsey has had only one year at the helm for the Bills, but he picked up right where his predecessor Brian Daboll left off. His team was second in yardage, second in scoring, and second in passing touchdowns. Expect more of the same this season: the Bills added to his weaponry by selecting Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the draft, James Cook is entering year 2 in the system, and Josh Allen’s elbow should finally be healthy.

Miami Dolphins (Frank Smith) - Smith’s first year in South Beach was characterized by an aerial onslaught. The team finished Top 5 in both passing yardage and passing scores, and that’s even with star QB Tua Tagovailoa missing time with a concussion. The team was in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards and scores, but that probably has more to do with the personnel than Smith. Head coach Mike McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, so you know he wants to run the ball.

New England Patriots (Bill O’Brien) - Bill O’Brien has tons of experience calling plays at the NFL level, so he should be a significant upgrade over last year’s coordinator, Matt Patricia. BOB last called plays for the Patriots in 2011 (which he parlayed into the head coaching gig at Penn State), and he was the head man for the Texans from 2014 to 2020. When he was in New England he had a top 3 offense in yards and scoring, but his finishes tended more toward league-average with the Texans. His Houston offenses tended to fall in the middle third of the league, which would certainly represent improvement over last year’s Patriot unit. Historically, his rushing offenses have been better than his passing offenses (all but one of his seasons in Houston saw a team in the top half of the league in rushing yards), so that certainly bodes well for RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Zeke Elliott.

New York Jets (Nathaniel Hackett) - Hackett has called plays for four different NFL franchises (Bills, Jaguars, Packers, and Broncos), but he’s never been particularly impressive. He’s only had one season (out of 9) where his team finished in the top 5 in yards, and that was with the 2020 Packers. Conversely, he’s twice finished bottom-3 in the league in passing touchdowns, and had 3 bottom-5 finishes in rushing touchdowns. If you’re looking for a silver lining, his best seasons have come while calling plays for Aaron Rodgers. In 2020 and 2021, he had back-to-back finishes of being Top 5 in passing touchdowns and Top 5 in passing scores.

Houston Texans (Bobby Slowik) - Slowik has never before called plays at the NFL level. They are breaking in a rookie quarterback and have a rookie head coach (Demeco Ryans) whose history is on the defensive side of the ball. The market has the Texans priced accordingly. While many managers are fading the Texans, this could be a buying opportunity. There isn’t much opportunity cost to acquire these guys, and I always like buying into unknowns in fantasy, as they have the potential to be lotto tickets.

Indianapolis Colts (Jim Bob Cooter) - Cooter rose to fame as the offensive coordinator for the Lions from 2015-2018. His finishes were pretty good considering how bad his offensive line was, but the guy wasn’t able to call an effective running game to save his life. In 3 of 4 seasons, he finished with a bottom-3 offense in rushing yards. Conversely, in 3 of 4 seasons he was in the top third in the league in passing yards. Given that his strength is in the passing game, he seems to be a really odd fit for a Colts team whose best players are run-first quarterback Anthony Richardson and running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor owners should pray for a trade.

Jacksonville Jaguars (Press Taylor) - Not a bad first year at the helm for Zac Taylor’s little bro. The Jaguars finished top 10 in yards and scoring, which is fairly impressive given the limited talent they had at Trevor Lawrence’s disposal. Expect continued offensive growth with the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tank Bigsby.

Tennessee Titans (Tim Kelly) - Kelly did a fairly impressive but unheralded job as offensive coordinator of the Texans from 2019-2021. In 2021 the wheels fell off (after they traded DeAndre Hopkins prior to the season), but before that his offenses were really solid. The Texans were 13th in yardage in both 2019 and 2020, and were top 12 in passing touchdowns in both of those seasons. Plus, in 2019, he was top 10 in rushing yards and rushing scores. The willingness to rely on the run game obviously pairs well with Tennessee’s longstanding desire to pound the rock with Derrick Henry. But the demonstrated ability to throw the ball could bode well for sophomore WR Treylon Burks and old friend Hopkins, who was the centerpiece of Kelly’s offense five years ago.

Denver Broncos (Joe Lombardi) - Lombardi was the offensive coordinator for the 2014-2015 Detroit Lions and the 2021-2022 Los Angeles Chargers. Every single one of his teams has finished Top 12 in passing yardage, and each of his Chargers teams finished in the top 3. This is a team that is gonna Let Russ Cook. Don’t underestimate the presence of head coach Sean Payton, though, who regularly had top 5 offenses in rushing scores while he was calling the shots in New Orleans.

Kansas City Chiefs (Matt Nagy) - Nagy was the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs in 2017 and then called the plays for the Bears from 2018-2021. His Chiefs offense was stellar but his Bears offenses were all mediocre to crummy. He’s back with the Chiefs, and Andy Reid is still going to be calling the plays. Don’t overthink this. You want Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. They’re going to continue to put on an aerial show.

Las Vegas Raiders (Mick Lombardi) - Lombardi’s first year as an offensive coordinator was this past season. Despite limited talent, he posted a top 12 passing offense in both yardage and scoring, as well as a top 12 offense overall. Given the return of Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, and the lateral move at quarterback from Derek Cart to Jimmy Garoppolo, there is little reason to believe he won’t rack up similar totals this season.

Los Angeles Chargers (Kellen Moore) - It’s hard not to love Kellen Moore, who was the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator the past four years. During that time, he finished first in yardage twice; top 6 in scoring 3 times; top 10 in rushing 3 times; and top 10 in passing touchdowns 3 times. This guy isn’t limited in what he can do. He calls an efficient running game and an efficient passing game, and he puts up points. He is now working with a better QB (Justin Herbert) than he ever had in Dallas. I’m fully expecting an offensive explosion, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this team led the league in points scored.

Chicago Bears (Luke Getsy) - in his first year at the helm, he finished with the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL. But the passing game left much to be desired. The Bears were dead last in the league in passing yards. There is reason for optimism, though, as they imported star WR DJ Moore this offseason. If Justin Fields can take the next step, they may go from 19th in the league in passing scores to somewhere in the top half.

Detroit Lions (Ben Johnson) - Johnson’s first year on the job was last season. The Lions are a low-key potential top 5 offense. Because they already were, last year. In 2023, they were 3rd in rushing scores, 8th in passing scores, and 5th in scoring overall. Invest in the Lions. Aside from Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, none of them have hefty price tags. This is a top 5 offense that you can get at a bottom 5 price. Ok, maybe that’s a bit of hyperbole on the price, but you get the point.

Green Bay Packers (Adam Stenavich) - The Packers were generally average in Stenavich’s first year at the helm, and now they go from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. Rodgers isn’t what he once was, but an educated guess is that he’s better than Love. I’m fading the pass catchers in this offense aside from Christian Watson.

Minnesota Vikings (Wes Phillips) - In Phillips’ first season last year, the Vikings were Top 10 in all offensive categories except rushing yards. And that’s when they had Dalvin Cook. Alex Mattison ain’t the talent Dalvin Cook is. Don’t expect a big rushing season from Mattison. He’s an easy fade for me.

Dallas Cowboys (Brian Schottenheimer) - It’s amazing how many chances this guy has gotten in the NFL. He’s had 12 seasons as an offensive coordinator with the Jets, Rams, and Seahawks. On the whole, he’s been very average. However, he does have some highlights. From 2018 to 2020 (his last year as an OC), he had a top-5 offense in passing touchdowns every year. Over the course of his career, he’s had 4 top-5 finishes in rushing yards. Most of that is not offset by his mediocrity, though. More often than not he’s in the bottom third of the league in passing yards, rushing yards, and passing scores. Given his overall body of work, I’m probably fading the Cowboys this year, especially given the price tag on guys like CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard.

New York Giants (Mike Kafka) - Kafka orchestrated a great rushing offense in his first year at the helm. Saquon Barkley presents a great value if you can get him in Round 2. The jury is still out on the rest of the offense. The Giants were bottom-10 in passing yardage and scores, and didn’t add much in the offseason aside from the oft-injured, over-30 Darren Waller, who hasn’t posted a top-10 tight end season since 2020.

Philadelphia Eagles (Brian Johnson) - This is Johnson’s first year as an offensive coordinator for Philly. Everyone assumes that the Eagles won’t skip a beat given they’re returning their QB and all of their pass catchers, but I think that understates the importance of former OC Shane Steichen to this offense. It would not be at all surprising to see them take a slight step back.

Washington Commanders (Eric Bieniemy) - Bieniemy was the offensive coordinator in Kansas City for the past five seasons, but this was his first year calling plays. In KC, his average finish was as a top 3 offense in yards and a top 4 offense in scoring. But how much of that was him, and how much of that was Andy Reid or Patrick Mahomes? I’m treating Bieniemy as though we didn’t have any data on him because I’m just not sure what was him and what was his future Hall of Fame head coach and quarterback. But the Commanders aren’t expensive in drafts, so most of them are probably worth late dart throws. I am particularly bullish on Jahan Dotson, Antonio Gibson, and Sam Howell as backups.

Atlanta Falcons (Dave Ragone) - Two years so far with Dave Ragone. Last year, the Falcons improved to a top 3 rushing team, and now they get Bijan Robinson. Bijan, Tyler Allgeier, and Cordarrelle Patterson all should be valuable pieces this year. I’m also holding out hope that head coach Arthur Smith can make Drake London his next AJ Brown. Smith was the OC in Tennessee when Brown was there.

Carolina Panthers (Thomas Brown) - We have no data on Thomas Brown, who has never been an offensive coordinator before. We do have information on Frank Reich, however, who typically called competent offenses before last year’s meltdown with Indianapolis. Reich, a QB guru (you get called a guru if you win a Super Bowl with Nick Foles) is likely the perfect coach to nurture first overall pick Bryce Young. You never want to bank on teams with rookie quarterbacks under center, but I do believe Reich’s offense will surprise. Adam Thielen and Miles Sanders, in particular, present good values at their respective ADPs.

New Orleans Saints (Pete Carmichael, Jr.) There are two Pete Carmichaels. There is the Pete Carmichael who finished in the top 10 in yardage in every season under Sean Payton, and there is the Pete Carmichael who hasn’t called a Top 10 offense in yardage since Payton left. If you want to take the optimistic view, he’s had a top half team in passing touchdowns every year, even including those after Payton’s departure. Chris Olave is a good target early and Derek Carr is a reasonable backup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Dave Canales) - Canales has no experience as an offensive coordinator. He spent 13 years as a Seahawks assistant, so you would expect an offense that emphasizes the run. That’s probably what the Bucs need, as they don’t have adequate passing talent under center. Rachaad White looks like he could be a screaming value here given his talent, his coach, and his lack of competition.

Arizona Cardinals (Drew Petzing) - Petzing has never called plays before. He spent 10 years as an assistant with Cleveland and Minnesota before landing the OC gig in the desert. It’s hard to know what the Cardinals offense will look like this year, but it’s also hard to be terribly optimistic. Kyler Murray is hurt, and they don’t have any veteran, healthy pass catchers other than Hollywood Brown. It would be very surprising if this offensive finished above the bottom third of the league.

Los Angeles Rams (Mike LaFleur) - It’s hard to understand what owners see in Mike LaFleur. He had bottom-5 scoring offenses in both of his seasons as offensive coordinator for the Jets. LaFleur’s defenders might argue that’s due to Zach Wilson. But his critics would argue that he was given the #2 pick in the draft, and it was his job to develop Zach Wilson. By any measure, he failed. Now he’s in LA, and it’s doubtful Sean McVay cedes play-calling duties to him. The Rams offense is going to run through Cooper Kupp and Cam Akers, but it’s doubtful they have much hope of returning to their dominant offensive ways of 2021 given the state of their offensive line. Strange as it is to say, this might be a season to fade Cooper Kupp.

San Francisco 49ers (Kyle Shanahan) - Shanahan has tons of experience calling plays in the NFL: 2008-2009 with Houston, 2010-2013 with Washington; 2014 with Cleveland, 2015-2016 with Atlanta, and from 2017-present with San Francisco. He averages a top-10 finish in yardage and a top-12 finish in rushing touchdowns. In 3 of the past 4 seasons, he’s had a top-5 team in rushing scores. It’s easy to invest in Christian McCaffrey, no doubt, but don’t sleep on backup rushers on this team like Eli Mitchell and Jordan Mason. Like his father before him, the younger Shanahan can turn any ol’ running back into a 1,000-yard rusher.

Seattle Seahawks (Shane Waldron) - Waldron has called Seattle’s offense each of the past two seasons and just continues to improve. He took castoff Geno Smith and made him a starter, and rode him to a Top 5 finish in passing touchdowns. He’s also shown an ability in the ground game, as his 2021 squad was top 10 in rushing scores. The offense is likely to improve with the additions of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zach Charbonnet, and Kenny McIntosh. This is an easy offense to invest in because no one goes before the third round (DK Metcalf and Kenny Walker), so you can get a piece of this top 5 scoring offense in Round 6 and beyond by drafting players like Tyler Lockett, Geno, JSN, Charbonnet, and Noah Fant. For what it’s worth, I much prefer Lockett to Metcalf at cost, and the same goes for Charbonnet over Walker.