Weekly Hail Mary: Week 13
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate,Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 2 of 5 recommended plays last week, for a 40% hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Gardner Minshew - MISS - 15.64 points - It’s a miss, but barely. He would have been a viable streamer but for his INT. He didn’t kill you if you started him this week.
Jameis Winston - PUSH - He was recommended as a streamer only if Derek Carr didn’t play, but Carr suited up.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Royce Freeman - HIT - 13.7 points - 13 carries for 77 yards and a touchdown.
Zach Charbonnet - HIT - 7.8 points - 14 carries for 47 yards and 4 receptions for 11 yards. It was ugly, but he got you what you needed.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Demario Douglas - MISS - 7.9 points - This is a tough miss. Douglas was SO close to being a viable streamer, and then was knocked from the game with injury in the 4th quarter. He had 6 grabs for 49 yards, so one more catch would have gotten him there. If you had to pick him up off the wire and start him, you’re probably satisfied with the result, but frustrated by the injury. What might have been.
Tutu Atwell - PUSH - Atwell was recommended only if Cooper Kupp didn’t play. Kupp played.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Isaiah Likely - MISS - 6.0 points - This is another one that was close, but no cigar. Likely was 4 for 40. It was a useful enough stat line, but you were left wanting more, especially given the opponent.
Moving onto Week 13, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Gardner Minshew, Colts (16% rostered). Doubling down on Minshew! He’s not great, but there are 6 teams on a bye this week and Tennessee is a middle-of-the-road matchup.
Running back (7.56 points minimum)
D’Ernest Johnson, Jaguars (1%). He’s seeing almost 10 touches per game and Cincinnati is terrible against the run. If the Jags blow out the Bengals, he could get some added run in the 4th quarter. Garbage time points count!
Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Zay Jones, Jaguars (21%). I guess we’re just going Jags-heavy this week. Jones has been reasonably involved since his return, and he faces off against the Bengals 30th-ranked defense on Monday night.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders (28%). Fresh off a 100-yard game, Samuel is sure to be a popular pickup this week against Miami.
Tight end (6.69 points minimum)
Hunter Henry, Patriots (29%). The Pats square off against the Chargers on Sunday, and LAC is bottom 3 against the tight end. Plus, the Pats are down pass-catchers. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Henry with a meaningful role in this one.