Weekly Hail Mary: Week 12

Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate,Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!

Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:

51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends

For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.

Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:

Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.

Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.

Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

We hit on 1 of 4 recommended plays last week, for a 25% hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:

Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)

Matthew Stafford - MISS - 10.7 points - He had 190 yards passing, a touchdown, and a pick. A fairly “meh” game.

Running Back (7.56 points minimum)

Darrell Henderson - HIT - 10.9 points - Stafford’s teammate, on the other hand, had a highly useful performance. Henderson had only 6 rushes, but he punched one in for a score, and he also caught the ball 4 times for an additional 28 yards. He finished the week as a solid RB2.
Ty Chandler - PUSH - We told you not to start Chandler if Alexander Mattison was active. Mattison was active, so Chandler was removed from streamer consideration.

Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)

Curtis Samuel - MISS - 1.0 points - The entire Commanders offense stunk in this one, but Samuel was the poster boy. He had one catch for a measly five yards.
Noah Brown - PUSH - Brown was inactive and thus removed from streamer consideration.
Michael Wilson - PUSH - Like Brown, Wilson was inactive and was removed from streamer consideration.

Tight End (6.69 points minimum)

Luke Musgrave - MISS - 4.8 points - 4 catches for 28 yards. With tight ends, you’re usually just hoping for a tight end, and it didn’t happen here.

Moving onto Week 12, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:

Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)

Gardner Minshew, Colts (13% rostered). There’s always a bit of trepidation starting Minshew because he’s got it in him to give you a complete dud, but you have to trust the matchup here. He’s got a home date against the Bucs, who are one of the three most favorable matchups for opposing fantasy passers.
Jameis Winston, Saints (1%). ONLY IF DEREK CARR DOESN’T PLAY. But as of this writing Carr is in the concussion protocol, and Winston has a tasty matchup against the division-rival Falcons, who are bottom-10 against opposing passers. Winston has led the league in TD passes before and the dude loves to chuck it deep, so there’s always the potential for fantasy goodness when he’s under center. If only he could keep the picks under control…

Running back (7.56 points minimum)

Royce Freeman, Rams (16%). Against the Seahawks, it was Freeman, not Darrell Henderson, who dominated the backfield touches. He had 17 carries to Henderson’s 6. Rough math, that’s nearly 75% of the carries for Freeman. If he gets that kind of workload again, he could be useful this week. But be wary of the potential return of Kyren Williams. If Williams returns from IR, all bets are off, and you should not start Freeman.
If we’re allowed to cheat a little, I’d recommend Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks (45%). Kenny Walker got hurt, so Charbonnet should get the lion’s share of the work. On Sunday he had 21 touches, which is outstanding volume. His matchup against the 49ers this weekend is daunting on paper, but he should at least have bankable volume. Also keep in mind fellow Seahawk Kenny McIntosh (0%) as a stash, as he should be activated this week to account for Walker’s absence and he’d be the next man up in the event of an injury to Charbonnet.

Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)

Demario Douglas, Patriots (33%). It’s hard to get excited about anyone in the Patriots offense, but the rookie sixth rounder is probably their best option in the passing game. He has 7+ targets in three straight. A matchup against the Giants, who are bottom five against opposing wide receivers, also adds to the appeal.
Tutu Atwell, Rams (26%). With Cooper Kupp out for the first few games of the season, Atwell opened the season with point totals of 14.9, 11.7, and 15.2. Cooper Kupp is out again. You’ll never feel good about starting Tutu Atwell, but he’s legitimately viable. Throughout the first quarter of the season, he saw at least 8 targets in every game.

Tight end (6.69 points minimum)

Isaiah Likely, Ravens (5%). He steps into the role vacated by Mark Andrews, and should be one of the points of emphasis in the Ravens’ passing attack. They face off this week against the Chargers, who are bottom-3 in the NFL against opposing tight ends. Fire up Likely with confidence.