Weekly Hail Mary: Week 1

It’s back! Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least one-third of Yahoo! leagues.

In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer. The Hail Marys for Week 1:

Running Backs

Start of the Week: Frank Gore, Bills (18% owned). Well hello, old friend! Gore was practically a weekly staple during this column last year, and it looks like 2019 will be no different. With the Bills jettisoning LeSean McCoy on the eve of the season, Gore suddenly finds himself atop the depth chart with very little proven competition behind him. The Devin Singletary truthers are salivating at the opportunity for the 5’7 rookie to overtake The Immortal Frank Gore, but Devin Singletary is a below-average NFL athlete. Besides, this isn’t the first time fantasy players have expected a young back to supplant Gore. How did it go for supporters of Kenyan Drake, Marlon Mack, and Carlos Hyde? Somehow, Gore always ends up as the lead dog. He may not post an elite stat line, but he’s probably a lock for double digit touches and could luck into a score. Among he, T.J. Yeldon, and Devin Singletary, you’d have to assume Gore is the goal-line back.

Giovani Bernard, Bengals (12%). Bernard’s ownership percentage is shockingly low. The Bengals will be without AJ Green for the first few weeks of the season, leaving the primary pass-catching threats as Tyler Boyd and …. who? CJ Uzomah? John Ross? Tyler Eifert? Child, please. Bernard should be involved plenty out of the backfield,, which makes this a worthwhile investment in PPR leagues.

Mike Davis, Bears (18%). This one is going out on a limb a little bit. If you read the Bears’ initial depth chart, Tarik Cohen is listed as the starter, and hyped rookie David Montgomery is listed as #3. That could mean that all of the workload that the fantasy community has projected for Montgomery could actually be going to Davis, at least early in the season. Davis rushed for over 500 yards and had 5 total touchdowns last season, so it’s not like he’s a completely useless player. He just needs opportunity. Based on the way the depth chart shakes out right now, it sounds like he might get it.

Dare Ogunbowale, Buccaneers (7%). The pass-catching back for what is supposed to be a pass-heavy team under Bruce Arians. Arians made David Johnson a star. This guy isn’t David Johnson, but it’s not like the depth chart in front of him is filled with studs. At worst, he’s got a good match-up against the 49ers, and should be a nice floor play.

Wide Receivers

Start of the Week: Albert Wilson, Dolphins (6% owned). The opening week match-up with the Ravens isn’t ideal, but this guy might be the best pass-catcher the Dolphins have (unless former five-star recruit Preston Williams pans out). He scored four receiving touchdowns in seven games with the Dolphins last year, and is presently atop the depth chart at wide receiver. He was garnering a healthy target share up until his injury . He had 21 targets over his final 3 healthy weeks, which projects to 96 targets over the course of an entire season. He’s a starting wide receiver on a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offense; there is value to be had here.

Devin Funchess, Colts (32%). Admittedly, Funchess lost some of his luster when Andrew Luck retired. But this guy should still be a big red-zone weapon for the Colts this year, as his only real competition in that department is the overachieving Eric Ebron. He’s as good of a bet as anybody to score a touchdown in Week 1 against the Chargers.

Marquise Goodwin, 49ers (28%). All the preseason chatter about the demise of Dante Pettis and the rise of Deebo Samuel seem to have been premature. Pettis didn’t lose a starting spot, and Samuel didn’t take one from Marquise Goodwin. With what looks to be a shootout on tap with the Bucs’ leaky secondary, Goodwin is a nice upside play.

DaeSean Hamilton, Broncos (16%). If Goodwin is the upside play, Hamilton is the floor play. Last December, when he started seeing regular snaps, Hamilton saw an average of 9.5 targets per game. Over the course of a season, that would be over 150 targets. That, kids, is what we call useful. In the final four December games, he caught 25 passes. The simple math is that he was on pace for a 100-catch season. Joe Flacco has made a career out of targeting the middle of the field, which could bode well for Denver’s slot man Hamilton.

Zay Jones, Bills (8%). I hate Zay Jones. I believed in him as a rookie and he burned me. And, for the most part, he wasn’t very good last year… until December. In five December games, he scored five touchdowns. He clearly has Josh Allen’s trust in the red zone, and is the only returning pass-catcher among the starting offense (John Brown, Cole Beasley, and whatever tight end they throw out there are all new to the team this year). Jones isn’t a big yardage guy, but, like Funchess, he’s a decent bet to score a touchdown.

Tight Ends

Start of the Week: Jack Doyle, Colts (33% owned). Doyle is the best tight end on the Colts. Yes, better than Eric Ebron. And the last time we saw him relevant, in 2017, was when he was catching passes from…. Jacoby Brissett! That year, he snagged 80 passes. That’s pretty darn useful for a guy you can grab off the waiver wire. And believe it or not, it is Doyle, not Ebron, who is #1 on the Colts’ depth chart.

Will Dissly, Seahawks (3% owned). DK Metcalf is still injured. David Moore is injured. Suspected WR2 Jaron Brown was cut before the season and then re-signed. Aside from Tyler Lockett, there are no sure things in the Seahawks offense, and they are going up against the horrendous Bengals defense. And in particular, the horrendous Bengals linebacking corps, which currently sits at four players total.

Darren Waller, Oakland (23%). Why not? He’s tremendously athletic and speedy, and he’s on a team with a crazy Antonio Brown who has no rapport with his quarterback, a one-trick-pony deep threat in Tyrell Williams, and a balding rookie slot receiver in Hunter Renfrow. Why can’t Waller get some action in this misfit offense? (Plus, have you looked around? The pickings at tight end are pretty slim.)