Overrated Players in 2019 Drafts

A column like this used to be called “busts.”  But what is a bust, really? When we say “bust,” we’re just talking about players who do not return value that aligns with the investment we made in them.  In other words, they were overdrafted. Here are a few players who are unlikely to deliver the return on investment you might expect, given their current lofty draft status.  All ADP data is taken from Yahoo! Fantasy drafts as of August 15, 2019: 

Davante Adams (Average pick 9.3, first round pick in 12-team leagues).  Is Davante Adams the true stud he’s billed to be, or is he a one year wonder? This will be Adams’ sixth year in the league.  He has exactly ONE season in his career with more than 1,000 yards. He has exactly ONE season with more than 75 catches. What is more likely to repeat: his 111 catches and 1,386 yards from last year, or his previous four-year average of 59 and 702?  Even with his propensity to score touchdowns (10 or more in each of the past three seasons), the low catch and yardage totals make him more comparable to Alshon Jeffery than Deandre Hopkins. For point of reference, Jeffery is going around the 75th pick, well into Round 7.  Do you want a 7th round value in Round 1? Because that’s certainly within the range of outcomes for Adams.  

Patrick Mahomes (16.6, mid-second round).  Good grief, people - stop taking quarterbacks early! There is ample supply at the position, and Mahomes is bound to regress.  There are only three times in NFL history where a QB has thrown 50 or more touchdown passes: Peyton Manning in 2013, Tom Brady in 2007, and Mahomes last year.  Clearly, the feat has never been repeated. If you expand the pool to include players who have thrown 40 or more touchdown passes, the list expands to include Aaron Rodgers (2011 and 2016), Dan Marino (1984 and 1986), Matthew Stafford (2011), Kurt Warner (1999), Andrew Luck (2014) and Drew Brees (2011 and 2012).  That’s nine quarterbacks in the history of the NFL who have thrown 40 or more touchdowns, and the only one to do it in back-to-back seasons is Drew Brees. So the odds are not only that Patrick Mahomes will throw fewer than 50 touchdown passes, but also that he’ll throw fewer than 40. Don’t buy Mahomes at peak value, dear readers.  Let someone else spend the early round pick, and take Philip Rivers or Kirk Cousins ten rounds later. You’ll be just fine with them. 

Juju Smith-Schuster (17.8, mid-second round).  This is just a case of not believing in the player.  Juju is a slot guy who has benefitted from playing alongside the best wide receiver in the NFL the past few years.  He thrived when the defensive attention was on Antonio Brown - but can he be “the man” with Brown now in Silver and Black?  When Brown went AWOL in Week 17 last year, Juju had only 5 catches for 37 yards. Against the Bengals. The worst defense in the league.  In the first few rounds, it’s all about high upside players who carry very little risk. I’m not banking my season on a slot WR who has wilted in the past when made the focal point of the offense. 

Damien Williams (24.7, early third round).  Damien Williams is not Kareem Hunt. Damien Williams is not Kareem Hunt.  Damien Williams. Is Not. Kareem Hunt. Damien Williams is a guy who was kicked off his team in college. He went completely undrafted in 2014 before signing with the Miami Dolphins as a free agent.  He was buried on Miami’s depth chart for four seasons (behind fantasy “superstars” like Frank Gore, Jay Ajayi, and Kenyan Drake), and had a grand total of three career touchdowns headed into the 2018 season.  When he took over as the lead back after Kareem Hunt was cut (and Spencer Ware got hurt - let’s not forget he was behind Ware on the depth chart) he rushed for 100 yards in the regular season . . . once. Just once.  Sure, he was a touchdown-maker, but are we certain he’s the goal line back for the Chiefs this year? Or is that a Carlos Hyde role? Are we certain Williams is going to emerge as the lead back in Kansas City? Or is it someone else on the roster (Hello, Darwin Thompson!). An early third round pick for Damien Williams is incredibly risky.  He could certainly do well due to situation… but I hate drafting based on situation. I like drafting based on talent. And the fact of the matter is that Williams isn’t all that talented. If he was, he wouldn’t have gone undrafted, and spent four years buried on the depth chart on a bad team. Williams is just as likely to lose his job by midseason as he is to finish the year as a RB1.  Kareem Hunt, he is not. 

Zach Ertz (26.6, early third round).  From 2015-2017, Ertz had 75, 78, and 74 catches.  In 2018, he had 116 catches. What is more likely to happen?  Last year’s second round pick, Dallas Goedert, is demanding a bigger share of the pie, this year’s second round pick, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, has been the talk of camp, and this year’s other second-round pick, has pass-catching chops.  Oh, and Desean Jackson is back in town. What is more likely to happen? From 2015-2017, Ertz had 853, 816, and 824 receiving yards. In 2018, he had 1163 yards. What is more likely to happen? As a dear friend has said many times, you are what it says on the back of your football card.  Ertz’s football card says that in most seasons, he’s a 75 catch guy with 800-850 yards receiving. Those are nice stats, sure, but not early-third-round-pick stats.  

Amari Cooper (31.5, mid-third round).  Ugh. For someone who gets open so much, Cooper is really hard to own.  The guy completely lacks consistency. In 2018, he had just as many games with 20 or fewer yards as he did with more than 100 (four).  In fact, he had seven games last year with under 40 yards. That’s nearly half the season where he was virtually unusable. And this isn’t just a 2018 phenomenon; it’s the story of this guy’s career.  In 2017, he had two games with over 100 yards receiving, and four games with FEWER THAN TEN. That volatility and lack of production can lose matchups for you. It’s hard for me to be enthusiastic about a guy in Round 3 who is so volatile that he can practically give you a goose egg.  There are plenty of guys going after him who I would much rather have in this range - guys like Stefon Diggs, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Robert Woods, and the injured A.J. Green. 

So buyer beware! If you pay market value for guys like Davante Adams, Patrick Mahomes, Juju Smith-Schuster, Damien Williams, Zach Ertz, and Amari Cooper, don’t come crying to me when you have buyer’s remorse.