The Downside to 2019 First Round Picks
There are many articles written every year about what you should do with your first round pick. These puff pieces predictably tell you how great the top guys are, and how they can propel your team to fantasy glory. Unfortunately, they’re only giving you one side of the coin. They tell you the player’s ceiling: what is likely to happen if everything goes right. But… what if it doesn’t?
No player is perfect. Every NFL player, no matter how skilled, has warts. The purpose of this article is to examine the potential downside of each first round pick, to highlight why these guys might not provide the return on investment that you expect. That way, when it comes time to draft, you have considered the positives and the negatives for your potential early-round picks.
Note: We are not going to consider injury here. That’s a cop-out excuse. Instead, we’ll focus on player skill and situation to assess where there might be risk that you haven’t yet taken into account.
Estimated draft position comes from Fantasy Football Calculator ADP data as of July 30, 2019. Our focus is the top 24 players, which comprise the first two rounds of drafts in 12-team leagues:
1.01 Saquon Barkley. With Sterling Shepard out with an injury, Golden Tate suspended for the first four games, and Corey Coleman on injured reserve with a torn ACL, Barkley is probably going to see a TON of stacked boxes. He’s also going to be playing with an aging QB in Eli Manning who doesn’t throw it vertically anymore, which just increases the odds he’ll be facing base defenses more often than not. I doubt he’ll be playing with a lead often. His team’s defense was bad last year, and is shaping up to be another disaster this year as the Giants transition to a 3-4 defense despite lacking 3-4 personnel. Add it all up and there’s a ton of risk here.
1.02 Ezekiel Elliott. The guy is presently holding out, so that alone presents huge risk. But the biggest risk with Zeke has always come from off-the-field stuff. He has a history of misconduct in his personal life, which has been accompanied by missed games. It’s not difficult to fathom a scenario where he misses time due to suspension. In addition, the Cowboys don’t have a top offense, and there is always risk to hitching your wagon to a running back who isn’t tied to a dynamic offense. With as good as Zeke was last year, his production was noticeably subpar in the touchdown department, which may continue if the offense in general continues to struggle.
1.03 Alvin Kamara. Kamara is the only back in the top four who is in a timeshare, as he’ll be splitting work with Latavius Murray. I know, I know - he split time with Mark Ingram for the first few years of his career and was just fine. I get that. But the fact of the matter is that Murray is the goal-line thumper here, so if Kamara’s going to score, he’s going to have to do it from farther away from the goal line, or score through the air. And his opportunities through the air may be diminished compared to previous seasons, based on the other pass-catchers in the offense. The Saints have their first legitimate receiving threat at tight end since Jimmy Graham was sent packing after the 2014 season. Jared Cook isn’t an elite talent, but he’s certainly competent (he led the Raiders in receptions last year), and he could soak up some of the targets that Kamara is used to getting. Throw in the potential development of sophomore Tre’Quan Smith, and Kamara could get a smaller share of the receiving work than he received in prior seasons.
1.04 Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey has had otherworldly production as a receiver through his first two seasons in the league. Is that sustainable? The Panthers have spent premium picks on wide receivers the last two years (Curtis Samuel in Round 2 in 2017 and D.J. Moore in Round 1 in 2018), so it is safe to assume that they want to get those guys involved. Moore, for his part, led all receivers in average yards after the catch last year, so it would behoove Carolina to send more targets his way. In 2018, McCaffrey led the team with 107 receptions. The next-highest reception total was D.J. Moore’s 55. It is not a sustainable offensive model to have your running back catch nearly twice-as many passes as the next-closest offensive player. It’s a good bet to expect many of McCaffrey’s targets to get redistributed to players like Moore, Samuel, and the returning Greg Olsen, who was injured for much of 2018.
1.05 David Johnson. Let’s not forget that the Cardinals had the most abysmal offense in the National Football League last year, and Johnson failed to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing. I like David Johnson as much as the next guy, but we might be expecting a little much of Kliff Kingsbury’s offense here. Does his Air Raid translate to the NFL?
1.06 Deandre Hopkins. Hard to find objections to Hopkins. He’s probably the safest player in Round 1. If there’s a concern with him, it’s that the offensive line - particularly the tackles - don’t keep Deshaun Watson clean for long enough to deliver the ball to Hopkins. But the o-line has been a problem for years in Houston and it hasn’t affected Hopkins’ bottom line. What’s more likely to hurt Hopkins’ value is Will Fuller and Keke Coutee staying healthy for the entire season and eating into Nuk’s targets and touchdowns.
1.07 Le’Veon Bell. This one is almost too easy. Lev Bell has only played a full season once in his six (five?) year career. After having last year off, we have no idea what kind of shape he’s in. We have no idea how he’ll fit in the Jets offense. Adam Gase wasn’t exactly a mastermind at using his running backs in Miami, ya know? Plus, it’s a huge downgrade going from Pittsburgh’s offensive line to New York’s. Also, in Pittsburgh he had Big Ben and the GOAT Antonio Brown keeping defenses honest, so it’s not like the dude was facing stacked boxes on the reg. The supporting cast in New York … well, they’re not future Hall of Famers like he had before. He will be the focus of the defensive game plan. Can he handle it?
1.08 Davante Adams. Slow your roll on Davante Adams, kids. The number 2 receiver off the board? Really? 2018 was good, sure, but have we forgotten the four years before that? Last year was the first time Davante Adams had more than 75 receptions in a season (111). It was the first time he had more than 1,000 yards. In his first four seasons in the league, Adams averaged 59 catches and 702 yards receiving. That’s more Alshon Jeffery than Deandre Hopkins. Useful numbers, sure, but not elite. I wouldn’t touch this guy in the first round. Too much has to break right for him to repeat his 111/1,386/13 line from a year ago - career highs across the board.
1.09 James Conner. Conner became an RB1 by default last year. It’s not difficult to envision the former third-round pick splitting carries with Jaylen Samuels or Benny Snell moving forward. In addition Conner, like Le’Veon Bell, had the benefit of playing with Antonio Brown, so there was less defensive attention paid to him. Slot receiver Juju Smith-Schuster, while good, doesn’t affect a defensive game plan as much as Antonio Brown does. Conner should be downgraded because of a downgrade in supporting cast. Also - and I concede he missed three games - he DID finish outside the top ten in rushing last year, ending the year with fewer than 1,000 yards.
1.10 Joe Mixon. This is kind of an easy story to tell. The Bengals’ offense stinks. Their offensive line was bad, and got worse with Clint Boling’s retirement due to blood clots in his legs. They tried to plug a hole by drafting Jonah Williams, who never missed a game in college, to man the left tackle spot - but he’s out for the season. And now A.J. Green is hurt. Is Mixon going to carry this offense despite subpar offensive line play, a mediocre quarterback, and no receiving options outside of Tyler Boyd? It’s easy to envision him failing to provide worthwhile returns on a first round investment.
1.11 Michael Thomas. Thomas, like Hopkins, is relatively safe. But he is playing with a quarterback on the decline; Drew Brees is 40 this season. Thomas also could have fewer receptions than seasons past due to the potential emergence of Tre’Quan Smith and the signing of Jared Cook. There is also no telling how well the Saints offense will function after the sudden retirement of Max Unger.
1.12 Julio Jones. Julio’s biggest downside is that he just isn’t a consistent touchdown scorer. These are his touchdown totals since 2013: 2, 6, 8, 6, 3, 8. In 2017, when he scored just three touchdowns, he played in all 16 games and had 88 receptions. So it is certainly within his range of outcomes to have a poor season in the touchdown department despite performing well statistically in other categories. In addition, now that he’s got Calvin Ridley as his running mate, he’s going to have more competition for targets than he’s had since he was running alongside Roddy White. The return of Devonta Freeman could also make the Falcons’ offense more balanced (i.e., more run-heavy), which should also decrease the opportunities for Quintorris Lopez Jones.
2.01 Melvin Gordon. Holdout alert! We saw with Le’Veon Bell last year that holdouts don’t ALWAYS result in the disgruntled player eventually reporting to camp. There is a ton of risk selecting Gordon at this early ADP. If he doesn’t play, your season is likely sunk. But let’s set that aside and assume he does show up for camp. Gordon has averaged more than 4 yards per carry only once in his career (last season), and now he has threats to his workload with Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson both having proven that they belong in the NFL. Ekeler, in particular, is a huge threat to Gordon’s receiving work, and Jackson is useful on running downs. Plus, there is the looming issue with Russell Okung’s health, so he could be playing behind a worse offensive line than 2018.
2.02 Todd Gurley. This one is obvious. Gurley’s knee is a huge concern - not just for injury, which we are trying to avoid in this column, but also for workload. In an effort to keep him healthy throughout the season, there are concerns that the Rams could drastically reduce his workload, giving third-round rookie Darrell Henderson (whom they traded up to get) the passing down work, and spelling Gurley on some of the running downs with Malcolm Brown. The Lions tried to sign away Brown in the offseason, but the Rams matched the offer sheet. The moves the Rams have made this offseason tell us that they are concerned about Gurley’s availability.
2.03 Nick Chubb. Kareem Hunt. That’s the risk. Chubb is an excellent talent, but Hunt was one of the best running backs in the NFL last year before he was cut by the Chiefs after a domestic violence incident came to light. Chubb should be solid for the first half of the season (although the Browns offensive line remains a low-key weak link), but once Hunt returns in the second half, all bets are off.
2.04 Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook has played 15 of a possible 32 career games. That means he’s been on the sideline more than he’s been on the field. He has scored a total of four career rushing touchdowns. He has rushed for over 100 yards… just twice. I understand that he’s a decent pass catcher - but so is Duke Johnson, and I ain’t touching Duke in Round 2.
2.05 Odell Beckham. How will Beckham gel with his new teammates? How will he adjust to a new system? Can all of the personalities in that locker room coexist? Can Freddie Kitchens provide the steady leadership this team needs? We’ve seen how Beckham behaves when things go south. He’s an elite playmaker, but his effort (and, strangely, his health) seem to be suboptimal when his team is losing - and he tends to throw other players under the bus. I can’t imagine Baker Mayfield keeps feeding him the rock if he trashes Baker to the media in a moment of frustration after a tough loss.
2.06 Tyreek Hill. Like Zeke, this guy is a suspension risk. I cannot fathom how, after his history of domestic violence and the recent allegations against him (that he broke his three year-old-son’s arm), he hasn’t been suspended yet. There’s also a good chance that the Kansas City Chiefs offense as a whole will regress this year, given that their production last year was unsustainable from a historical perspective (particularly Mahomes’ passing TDs). That regression is just as likely to strike Hill as it is the rest of the pass-catchers.
2.07 Damien Williams. Career journeyman. Wasn’t even on a roster to start the season last year. Only got the lead dog role because Kareem Hunt got cut and Spencer Ware got hurt. Pick a reason. I don’t think anyone really believes in this guy’s talent; they believe in the situation and opportunity. But there’s just as much reason to believe in Carlos Hyde, Darrel Williams, or Darwin Thompson. It’s a hard pass for me at Williams’ current ADP. He may not be the starter by Week 5. Maybe even Week 1.
2.08 Juju Smith-Schuster. Well... can he be the man? He has thrived in the Steelers’ offense as their slot guy, when the bulk of the defensive attention was on Antonio Brown. Can he continue to excel now that he will be the center of attention? Historically, it is difficult for non-New-England slot receivers to be the primary receiving threats on their teams. Maybe Juju can be the exception. Maybe he can’t.
2.09 Travis Kelce. There is always risk in taking a tight end in Round 1, because of the opportunity cost of forgoing the selection of an elite wide receiver or running back. Plus, you’re buying Travis Kelce here at the peak of his value. Last year, he set career highs in receptions (103), yards (1,326), and touchdowns (10). If you’re drafting him here, you’re banking on a repeat performance of his career year. But that’s why they call it a “career year” - it only happens once in a career. Prior to last year, and excluding his rookie season, his career averages were 77 receptions, 975 yards, and 5.5 touchdowns. That’s a useful stat line, but it’s not a second round pick. It’s closer to Delanie Walker’s yearly production in Tennessee.
2.10 Antonio Brown. Derek Carr, Derek Carr, and Derek Carr. Captain checkdown could torpedo Brown’s production. There is no telling how Brown will function in this new situation, and there is also no telling if his diva personality can handle playing for what is likely to be a bottom-dweller in the standings. Does he quit on his team like he did in Pittsburgh last year?
2.11 Mike Evans. Evans could be poised to explode in the Bucs’ aerial attack under Bruce Arians - or he could wilt being the only proven passing option on the team. Many project an uptick in production for Chris Godwin, but there’s always the chance that he’s best suited for the number 3 role he has occupied in the past. There is no longer a DeSean Jackson on this team to stretch the field and keep safeties from keying on Evans, and there isn’t much of a threat of a running game with Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber atop the depth chart. Defensive coordinators planning to stop the Bucs are going to focus all of their attention on Evans.
2.12 Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry didn’t rush for more than 60 yards in a game until Week 14 last season, despite playing in every game before that. Though his December was dominant, his production that month appears to be the outlier, rather than a sign of things to come. In addition, with Taylor Lewan out for the first four games of the season, Henry might find it tough sledding throughout the season’s first month. The guy can’t move laterally, and he has hands of stone. This is way too hefty of a price for a 2-down plodder who only has straight-line speed.