Alternate Running Back Theory

One of the most-read pieces from HMF’s inaugural season was the article on alternate running back theory. Due to the popularity of the article and the success of the strategy, it will become a staple of the site each year as drafts roll around. Edits, tweaks, and updates will be made for entertainment purposes - and to keep the article fresh and current - but the substance remains the same.

There are many popular draft theories out there - most of them more well-known than the Alternate Running Back Theory (or “AltRB” for short).  You've likely heard about or tried most of those theories such as First Round Running Backs (mandating that you always grab a running back in the first round); Zero RB (requiring you to wait until Rounds 5 and later to stock up on a plethora of running backs in the hopes that a few bust out and are usable); and Late Round Quarterback, which is a theory popularized by Numberfire’s J.J. Zachariason (eschewing quarterbacks in the early rounds in favor of wide receivers and running backs).

This article proposes a strategy that I have found to be quite effective over the last two years of playing fantasy. The central premise of the AltRB strategy is that in the first ten to twelve rounds, you should be drafting a running back in every other round.  In other words, you need to come out of Rounds 1 and 2 with one running back, rounds 3 and 4 with one running back, Rounds 5 and 6 with one running back, etc. 

The theory behind this strategy is simple: in most drafts, running backs fly off the board quickly; therefore, you need to stock up on them early and often to get usable guys. If you’re a “Zero RB” truther, this strategy is going to rub you the wrong way. But I’m not here to convince you. I’m here to give you an alternate way of thinking. You can decide for yourself whether you like the AltRB strategy or not. But in my experience, AltRB tends to work out better than Zero RB, because the Zero RB strategy of waiting until Round 5 to draft running backs minimizes your chances of hitting on a true stud RB1.  That’s not the case with AltRB. In fact, with AltRB, you’re positioning yourself quite well to have a true stud workhorse leading your running back corps. (However, I do agree with the corollary idea behind Zero RB, which is that running back is a position that sees a ton of injuries, so you should load up on guys who can pop if opportunity strikes - which is why AltRB mandates drafting running backs at least once every two rounds for the first 10-12 rounds.) 

Generally, average fantasy output goes down in each successive round of a draft.  So the earlier you draft running backs - a position that is top heavy, thin, and suffers a ton of injuries - the more likely you are to have a stable of guys to rotate in when injuries or bye weeks strike. 

Obviously, you could just draft running backs with your first four picks to try to ensure that you have a solid RB corps regardless of byes and injuries.  But there is opportunity cost associated with doing that; you're missing out on elite wide receivers. In most leagues, you have to start two or three wideouts.  Alternate RB theory allows you to ensure that you get enough quality running backs to weather (inevitable) injuries while also giving you ample room to select the pass-catchers necessary to round out a solid team.   

In practice, AltRB is the sort of philosophy that many drafters adopt anyway without thinking about it.  If you grab James Conner at the end of Round 1, you're probably looking to add someone like Michael Thomas or Odell Beckham at the top of round 2, and then Marlon Mack or Kerryon Johnson in Round 3.  My point, though, is that you should be intentional about doing that, understand why you are doing what you are doing, and carry that type of thinking into subsequent rounds. It seems that folks put a lot of thought into what they are going to do in the first two or three rounds of their draft, but they don’t have much of a plan after that. If you want to win, you need a plan. And that’s where AltRB theory can win you your league.   

In many cases, you are going to be alternating between drafting running backs and wide receivers each round.  But the reason I don't call this the "Alternate Wide Receiver" theory is because I don't necessarily advocate taking a wide receiver in every other round.  For example, I'm perfectly fine with you selecting Travis Kelce or George Kittle in Round 2 of a 12-team draft to pair with David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell (though I would advise then taking a WR in Round 3 to ensure you get a WR1, and RB in Round 4 to follow the intent of the strategy).  I'm fine with you grabbing Zach Ertz in Round 3 once you've locked down Saquon Barkley and Mike Evans.  But those specific tight end exceptions aside, you're most likely going to be selecting wide receivers in the rounds you don't select running backs.  (Also, I suggest if you don’t get one of the top three tight ends, that you try to be the last person in your league to select one.)

And while I'm certainly a Late Round QB guy - generally never before Round 10 in a 12-team draft - there are always exceptions.  If I see Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes there in Round 6, I'm taking them.  But at that point, I've already got three running backs and two wide receivers.  (I would never take Rodgers in Round 6 if I had fewer than two WR - for example, if I took Kelce in Round 2.)  But generally, I am using Late Round QB theory in conjunction with Alternate RB. 

So how does a typical Alternate RB draft look? Well, unless you get a tight end like Kittle/Kelce in Round 2 or Ertz in Round 3, or an elite QB option like Rodgers in Round 6, your team will probably look something like this:

Rounds 1/2 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 3/4 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 5/6 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 7/8 - One RB and One WR
Rounds 9/10 - One RB and One WR or TE (unless you took a TE earlier). 
Round 11 - QB or TE (unless you already took a TE)
Rounds 12 and later - Best player available at RB, WR, or TE
Final two rounds:  K and DEF (if required)

Generally, I do not advocate drafting multiple QBs unless your league requires it or the rest of your league generally selects 3 QBs or more.  When your bye week hits, you'll likely be able to pick up a QB off the waiver wire for one week.  It's not a big deal.  Don't waste a valuable roster space on a player who you really don't need all that much, and likely won't play for more than one week.  Running backs and wide receivers are harder to find, and you’re required to start more of them. Use your final roster spot on one of those positions, not a backup quarterback!

Similarly, I advocate drafting only one tight end. There are typically guys on the waiver wire than you can pick up for a useful spot start.

Test out the AltRB theory in your mock drafts or leagues.  I bet you'll like your team.  You will be deep at the most premium positions, and will have set yourself up well for when injuries and bye weeks inevitably hit.