Early 2024 "Do Not Draft" List
Elsewhere in our draft kit, you can find our Early 2024 ADP values - the guys you definitely want at their current cost - and here we flip the script to the guys who are way overpriced, and whom you should avoid at their current ADP. We did a similar version of this article last season, and the results were pretty good. For example, we were down on Davante Adams at his second round price tag (17th overall), and he finished outside the top 10 wide receivers in half-point PPR leagues for the first time since before COVID was a thing. We were down on Patrick Mahomes at his second round cost; he finished as QB8, one spot ahead of Tua Tagovailoa (who went in Round 10, and was on our preseason values list). We also faded Joe Burrow at his 3rd round cost, and Burrow ended up having his worst season in the NFL.
So, we’ve got receipts to back up our tAeKs. This season, I will not be drafting any of the following players unless their price drops significantly. Average Draft Position is taken from ESPN drafts as of July 30:
1. Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (Round 2, ADP 15.7). This one is tough. Henry is perhaps the best pure runner of his era, and may be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. This call could bite me in the rear end, because Henry may well lead the league in rushing touchdowns. But I am a process-oriented person. And my process is to fade RBs who are age 30 or older. Derrick Henry is 30 years old, and showed signs of decline last year. While he could be a good asset this year, the early second round price tag is just too high for me. I won’t be owning him unless his price drops significantly.
2. Marvin Harrison, WR, Arizona Cardinals (Round 2, ADP 18.4). Let me start this by saying that there might not be a bigger Marvin Harrison fan than me. I’m one of the few advocating him as the 1.01 in Dynasty Super flex drafts over Caleb Williams. But in a redraft league… this price is insane. A rookie WR as a top-20 WR? This is drafting Harrison at his ceiling, without any consideration for his floor. Could Harrison return WR1 value? Sure. But it’s too much risk for me. I much prefer guys I’ve seen actually do it before. Less risk there. I’ll probably roster Harrison in Dynasty, but it’s unlikely I have him in a single redraft league.
3. Davante Adams, WR, Raiders (Round 2, ADP 21.1). Going back to the well on this one. Down on him last year in Round 2, and was proven right, and he’s going in generally the same range of the draft this year. I don’t get it. As a general rule, I don’t use premium picks on assets over the age of 30. Adams is 31, has no legit quarterbacks to throw him the ball, and declined across the board last year. Plus, the team added target competition in Brock Bowers. All this adds up to passing in Round 2.
4. Isiah Pacheco (Round 2, ADP 21.9). The Round 2 hate continues! I just don’t think Pacheco is special. He’s a former 7th round pick who is valued because of the offense he is in and because he seemingly doesn’t have any competition. But it’s bad process to draft a player high simply because of a perceived lack of competition. Pacheco is not a pass catcher, and he’s not a special talent. I’d much prefer a wide receiver in this frame.
5. Joe Mixon, RB, Texans (Round 3, ADP 35.7). Mixon stayed healthy last season so he had a lofty overall finish, but he wasn’t truly a difference-maker. I’d rather have all of the following RBs going later than Mixon this year: Kenneth Walker, David Montgomery, James Conner, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Rhamondre Stevenson. In the same range, I’d also rather have wide receivers like Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, DK Metcalf, and Amari Cooper.
6. Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams (Round 4, ADP 40.8). As noted above, I don’t use premium picks on WRs over 30. Kupp is 31, and his body finally started to break down last year. Plus, would you believe it if I told you that in his entire career, Kupp has only TWO seasons where he finished as a top-20 WR? One was in 2019, and one was in 2021. His best days are likely behind him. He’s played in only 21 of 34 possible games (62%) over the past two years.
7. CJ Stroud, QB, Texans (Round 4, ADP 41.0). Stroud had a great rookie year, but the fact of the matter is that he remains primarily a pocket passer at QB. For him to return on this investment, he’s going to need to throw nearly 40 TDs. It’s possible, given all the weaponry he has, but if we’re betting on what’s likely, I think this ADP focuses too heavily on his ceiling and not enough on his floor. And the opportunity cost is outrageous. This is an area of the draft where you need to focus on wide receivers and tight ends.
8. Zamir White, RB, Raiders (Round 6, ADP 66.6). White is this year’s Mike Davis, Alex Collins, etc. - the latest guy who is getting hyped up because he’s projected to get a ton of volume and is perceived to have no competition on the depth chart. This sort of story rarely ends well. White was a fourth round pick in the NFL draft for a reason. He’s not tremendously talented. Avoid him at his sixth round cost.
9. San Francisco 49ers Defense (Round 6, ADP 71.1). Don’t use premium picks on defenses. I preach this every year. The opportunity cost is too great. Just stream your defenses each week instead.
10. Justin Tucker, K, Ravens (Round 7, ADP 78.8). Repeat after me: I will not draft a kicker before the final rounds of my draft. I will not draft a kicker before the final rounds of my draft. I will not draft a kicker before the final rounds of my draft…. Use these premium picks on players that will make a difference for you. This is a much better frame to take your quarterback, your second running back, or your fourth wide receiver.