Early 2024 ADP Values
We’ve reached August. The fantasy football degenerates have been mock drafting since the conclusion of the NFL draft in late April, and the casual fans are just starting to get into drafts, or will do so over the next month or so. The last couple months of drafts have shown several early values based on average draft position (ADP), which we will highlight for you in this article. (Elsewhere in this draft kit, you can find our Do Not Draft List.) We provided similar analysis last season, directing your attention to the following players who were ADP values:
D’Andre Swift, RB, Eagles (drafted in Round 8, finished as RB20 in PPR leagues and as a top-15 RB in half of his games.
David Montgomery, RB, Lions (drafted in Round 8, finished as RB13 in half-PPR leagues despite missing 3 games).
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins (drafted in Round 10, but led the league in passing yards and was top 5 in passing TDs, finishing as QB9).
We are striving to identify similar values in 2023. At this point, the following players should be considered values at their current ADP) All draft position data is taken from Yahoo! as of July 30:
Nico Collins, WR, Texans (Round 4, ADP 37.1). The cost is still relatively high, but I’m all over Collins as a fourth round pick this year. He really broke out last year, finishing as WR9 in half-PPR despite missing two games. He also was the only WR in the league not named Tyreek Hill to have more than 3.0 yards per route run. I’m not scared off by the addition of Stefon Diggs. Collins is an alpha on an up-and-coming offense.
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (Round 5, ADP 58.5). This is really pretty simple. In every season where Kyler Murray has played at least 14 games, he has finished as a QB1. In every season where he has played at least 16 games, he has finished top 6 among QBs. With the addition of Marvin Harrison and the continued development of Trey McBride, plus being more than a full year removed from his torn ACL, there’s no reason to think this dude won’t finish as one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy. Buy the dip!
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals (Round 6, ADP 62.1). How soon we forget. Last season, he was going at the end of the second/beginning of the third round. We’re going to let his ADP drop like a rock just because he AND his quarterback battled injury last year? Higgins is still the same dude, and so is Joe Burrow. Plus, Higgins is playing for a contract this year, and will be facing opposing teams’ #2 corner. Expect a career year. A top-15 WR finish is within reach.
Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers (Round 8, ADP 93.4). Why does everyone hate Chris Godwin? He’s still young (28), and he’s moving back to the slot this year, where he’s had the most productive seasons of his career. The guy has finished as a WR3 or better every year other than his rookie year (including a finish as the #2 overall WR in his second season). He’s got 3 straight seasons of 80+ receptions and 1,000+ yards. He’s about as steady as there is. He’s the ideal fit as your #3 wideout, with the upside for more.
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs (Round 9, ADP 103.4). What in the wide world of sports? People are (1) way too concerned about the length of a suspension and (b) too confident that the suspension will be this season, rather than 2025. But even if the suspension is this season… what’s the worst it could be? Six games? I’ll take 11 games of a guy who would be going as a 2nd/3rd round pick but for the suspension. You can get this guy as your WR4 or WR5 and then reap the benefits for the games he is eligible to play… which may well be the whole season. In the final six games of the regular season, Rice was a WR1 (checks notes) in half of them. He finished as a WR3 or better in all but one of them. When he’s on the field, Rice is reliable as they come.
Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos (Round 9, ADP 105.6). I’ve been critical of Javonte in the past, but the hate has gone too far. Barring something unforeseen, he’ll be the primary ball-carrier for Sean Payton’s Broncos, and Payton’s offenses have historically been friendly to running backs. People forget that he was coming back from a severe knee injury last year (multiple torn ligaments). Those types of injuries usually take more than a full year to heal. This season, that injury is well in the rearview. Williams should be a workhorse running back at a rock bottom price, for an offense that doesn’t have much talent in the passing game. It would not be at all surprising to see this as primarily a run-based offense.
Gus Edwards, RB, Chargers (Round 10, ADP 113.3). Speaking of run-based offenses, Jim Harbaugh has not been shy about his desire to establish the run. Our column on offensive coordinators tells you all you need to know about how much new offensive coordinator Greg Roman loves to pound the rock. Assuming health, it would be surprising if Edwards was not among the league leaders in rushing touchdowns.
Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders (Round 10, ADP 113.8). I don’t usually like rookie tight ends, but Bowers is a special case. This is a guy who, as a freshman at Georgia, made guys like George Pickens, Ladd McConkey, Adonai Mitchell, and Jermaine Burton completely irrelevant. He’s not a tight end so much as he is a pass catching weapon. And he goes to a team that was starving for pass catchers outside of Davante Adams. It’s a good situation, and Bowers is likely to make the most if it if he’s fully recovered from his tightrope ankle surgery.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders (Round 10, ADP 114). Don’t out-think the room here. Rushing QBs are valuable. Daniels rushed for 1100 yards and 10 TDs at LSU last year, and nearly 900 yards and 11 TDs the year before. He’s got a safe floor, with upside for more. For what it’s worth, I also really like Drake Maye, who is even cheaper than Daniels and has similar rushing upside (16 rushing scores over his final 2 seasons at UNC).
Christian Watson, WR, Packers (Round 10, ADP 118.0). When healthy, Watson can flat-out ball. He just needs to get his hamstrings healthy. In 2023, he finished as WR10 and WR8 in his last two games. In 2022, he had a 4-game stretch where he finished WR2, WR5, WR8, and WR6. The talent is clearly there. If he can stay on the field, he can ascend to the upper echelon of NFL wide receivers.
Bonus name: Blake Corum, RB, Rams (Round 11, ADP 126.1). Corum needs things to break right, but if he is able to wrest the lead job from Kyren Williams (or assume the role due to an injury to Williams), the sky is the limit. Sean McVay has a history of committing to one back, and giving that back the majority of the carries. Corum graded well according to PFF for 3 straight years. He never graded worse than 84.0, and led the entire NCAA in 2022 with a 96.2 rushing grade. He’s very talented, even if his pass catching is a bit of a work in progress. The team used a Day 2 pick on him, and he may well end up being the surprise of 2024 in the same way that Kyren Williams was the surprise of 2023.