Weekly Hail Mary: Week 1
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Onto our recommended plays for Week 1:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Sam Howell, Commanders (22% rostered). The Commanders open the season at home against the Cardinals, who may have the worst roster in the league (and appear to be embracing the “soft tank” for the rights to draft Caleb Williams). Seriously, can you name the starting corners for the Cardinals? I’ll wait.
If you came up with Antonio Hamilton and Marco Wilson, you’re either a Cardinals fan or a true football degenerate. I’ve never heard of either of those guys. Neither of them grades above 70 on PFF. I think Howell should have a pretty easy time. Even if Terry McLaurin misses the game, he’s still got decent weapons in last year’s first rounder Jahan Dotson and longtime fantasy tease Curtis Samuel. Plus, Howell is able to generate some yardage with his legs, and new OC Eric Bieniemy is eager to show that his prior success in Kansas City wasn’t entirely due to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. I expect the Commanders to light up the Cardinals.Bryce Young, Panthers (19%). So, let’s get the obvious out of the way. Young is (a) undersized (b) a rookie and (c) on the road. There are lots of reasons to be nervous. And I’m probably more comfortable starting Howell. But if I went into a draft intent on streaming QB and Howell isn’t available, Young is my next choice.
Let’s address each concern. First, yeah, he’s undersized. He’s been small his whole life. It didn’t stop him from winning the Heisman Trophy. Second, yes, he’s a rookie. A rookie who was the top pick in the draft. Folks weren’t apprehensive about starting Joe Burrow or Cam Newton or Andrew Luck when they were rookies. Just embrace that he’s a talented player. And third, yes, he’s on the road, but it’s on the road against Atlanta. Atlanta hasn’t had a good defense since the Clinton administration. Sure, they signed Jessie Bates in free agency, and A.J. Terrell is good, but most of the rest of their starters are has-beens, guys like Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree. Given their limited pass rush, Young should have all day to throw, which bodes well for his chances of success.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Deon Jackson, Colts (31%). Don’t out-think the room here. Volume is the name of the game. Jonathan Taylor is on PUP for at least the first four weeks, and with Zack Moss nursing a broken arm, Jackson is the only veteran tailback on the roster. My gut tells me he’s going to see more of the workload this week than 5th round pick Evan Hull. The matchup against Jacksonville isn’t all that intimidating.
Kyren Williams, Rams (3%). A cheap source of points that we always try to exploit at HMF is the pass-catching running back. Camp reports are that Williams will serve as the pass-catching back for the Rams. In Week 1, they’re likely to be without Cooper Kupp, and the rest of the wideouts aren’t all that and a bag of chips. So they’re likely to rely more on the backs and tight ends. Also, the offensive line was poor last year and didn’t really get any reinforcements this off-season. Matt Stafford may be looking for quick dump-offs all day. Would it really be all that surprising to see Kyren Williams exceed 7.5 points in that kind of environment?
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Curtis Samuel, Commanders (11%). If I’m in on Howell, I need to be in on one of his wideouts. He’s going up against that subpar Arizona defense previously referenced. Samuel is an easy play in week 1 if Terry McLaurin misses the game, as expected. Don’t forget, Samuel started off hot last year. Expect more of the same at the outset of 2023.
Marvin Mims, Broncos (34%). He qualifies. Barely, but he qualifies. The Broncos’ WR room is a game of “last man standing.” KJ Hamler was cut. Tim Patrick tore his Achilles. Jerry Jeudy is hurt. That leaves Courtland Sutton and the rookie Mims as the top 2 wideouts for the Week 1 showdown with the Raiders. Mims made his bones as a deep threat in college, and Russ’ cooking is best when he dials it up deep. Expect the Broncos to take some shots to Mims in this one. Remember, head coach Sean Payton has a clear plan for Mims; the Broncos traded up to make him the first selection of the Payton era.
Zay Jones, Jaguars (31%). Jones is last year’s productive wideout that nobody wants, going undrafted in most leagues. The dude had 82 catches last year and over 800 yards, and now gets to feast on #2 corners with Calvin Ridley in town. Plus, remember what I said about Arizona’s defense? The Colts’ might be worse. And that’s who Jones is matched up against this week.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Taysom Hill, Saints (15%). When streaming tight ends, you’re basically just betting on a guy to score a touchdown. And at tight end, no one has more touchdown upside than Taysom Hill. It’s that simple.
Irv Smith, Jr., Bengals (12%). When plucking a tight end off the waiver wire, it’s never a bad idea to grab a guy who is tied to a top quarterback. If you’re a defensive coordinator planning for Joe Burrow and the Bengals, your top priorities are stopping Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon. Irv Smith is an afterthought - an afterthought who should see favorable matchups against linebackers who are less athletic than he is. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Smith get loose for a score.