Weekly Hail Mary: Week 3
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate. Last week we hit on 6 of 16 (38%). Here are last week’s recommendations:
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins - MISS - Cousins struggled mightily in this one, mustering only 113 yards and 3 picks. The Vikings offense looks broken right now.
Dwayne Haskins - MISS - 223 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. Haskins had a cushy matchup and Washington was playing from behind the entire game, but he just couldn’t get anything going. It’s looking more and more like he just isn’t a very good football player.
Mitch Trubisky - MISS - Mr. Biscuits whiffed big here despite what appeared to be a soft matchup on paper. He had 2 passing scores, but he also threw two picks and had under 190 yards passing.
Running Backs
Jerick McKinnon - HIT - Only 3 carries for 77 yards, but he scored a touchdown. (Hey, I’d rather be lucky than good.) He earned more looks, considering he had 65 more yards than Tevin Coleman on 11 fewer carries. Coleman posted a pathetic 12 yards on 14 totes, and was placed on IR after the game.
Nyheim HInes - MISS - Only one reception for four yards, and no carries. With his breakout Week 1 and Marlon Mack done for the season, we expected more. But it’s clearly Jonathan Taylor SZN in Indianapolis. It was Jordan Wilkins, not Hines, who saw 9 carries in relief of Taylor.
Benny Snell - MISS - 3 carries for 5 yards and a fumble; 1 reception for -4 yards. In all fairness, Snell was only a recommended play on the assumption that James Conner was out, and Conner healed quickly enough to return for Week 2. If he saw Conner’s workload (18 touches), this is likely a very different result.
Malcolm Brown - MISS - Brown was still plenty involved in this one, toting the rock 1 1 times for 47 yards, but the Rams built a lead early and turned it over to Darrell Henderson in garbage time. In closer game scripts, he’s sure to be more involved.
Peyton Barber - MISS - 1 carry for 1 yard. After somehow falling into the endzone twice in Week 1, Barber was a complete afterthought in Week 2. He can be safely dropped in all leagues.
Joshua Kelley - HIT - 23 carries for 64 yards; 2 receptions for 49 yards. Any time your waiver wire pickup gets over 100 yards from scrimmage, you should be happy.
Frank Gore - HIT - 21 carries for 63 yards; 2 targets in the passing game. He was recommended as a floor play, and that’s exactly what he delivered: a safe floor as a flex play.
Wide Receivers
Robby Anderson - HIT - 9 catches for 109 yards. Anderson continues to show a rapport with Teddy Bridgewater. Curtis Samuel is being phased out of this passing game.
Parris Campbell - MISS - Campbell suffered a knee injury in this one and had only one rush for 7 yards before exiting.
Laviska Shenault - HIT - 5 carries for 37 yards; 3 receptions for 35 yards. This one is a close call, but I’m taking the W here, as he had more than 70 scrimmage yards to go along with his 3 receptions. Shenault has a safe floor because the team gets him the ball in a variety of ways.
Russell Gage - HIT - 6 for 46 and a TD. People don’t like to roster a team’s #3 receiver, but Gage is one of those rare guys who is worth it given the potency of this offense.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas - MISS - 4 for 26. Better days are ahead, as he was still second on the team with 9 targets.
Greg Olsen - MISS - 0 for 0. Missing from Russell Wilson’s offensive explosion against the Patriots was any reliance whatsoever on the tight ends. They combined for two targets and a measly nine yards. Yuck. Big miss here.
Jimmy Graham - MISS - 1 for 18. Chicago’s offense severely under-performed with a cake matchup against the Giants.
And now for the Hail Marys for Week 3:
Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew, Jaguars (32% owned). It’s going to end at some point, but ride Gardner Minshew while you can. Three touchdowns apiece in each of his first two games, and in Week 3 he gets Miami at home on a short week.
Philip Rivers, Colts (27%). This week the Colts are at home against the Jets, who just might have the worst defense in the NFL. They’ve given up at least 27 points in each of the first two games. Fire up all your Colts with confidence this week.
Mitch Trubisky (7%). Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Blah, blah, blah. I don’t care. I’m doubling down on Mitch this week. The Bears are on the road against Atlanta, and Atlanta hasn’t been able to stop anybody from scoring. I like Mitch for at least two scores this week, and he’s got the potential for a 300-yard day since he’s going to have to throw a ton to keep up with Matt Ryan & Co.
Running Backs
Dion Lewis (4%). Lewis is sure to be a hot pickup this week, as Saquon Barkley tore his ACL and is out for the season. The Giants get a tough defensive matchup against San Francisco in Week 3, but the Niners have injury woes of their own, having lost defensive linemen Joey Bosa and Solomon Thomas in Week 2’s tilt against the Jets. [Editor’s Note: The Giants signed RB Devonta Freeman after the initial publication of this article, so as of September 23, Dion Lewis is being REMOVED as an HMF-recommended play for Week 3.]
Mike Davis (6%). With Christian McCaffrey out for the next several weeks with an ankle injury, Davis is poised to carry the load for the Panthers. Up next is a date against the Chargers stout defense, though.
Jerick McKinnon (21%). As noted above, Tevin Coleman was bad in this game — 14 carries for 12 yards bad. McKinnon, on the other hand, had over 75 yards rushing on 3 totes. The Niners have a soft matchup next week against the Giants, and it looks like both Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert are going to miss the game with injuries. The Niners are also have a bevy of hurt pass-catchers, including Deebo Samuel (foot, IR) and George Kittle (knee), so McKinnon could be plenty involved through the air, as well. Add in the fact that Nick Mullens is going to be under center for Jimmy Garoppolo, and there could be checkdowns galore for McKinnon to pad his stats.
Frank Gore (14%). It’s the whole floor play thing. The Jets are headed to Indianapolis in Week 3 and they’re likely to lose, but at least we know from Week 2 that Gore is likely to carry the load even in losing efforts. He may get you a short touchdown, but you’re more likely looking at a guy who can be relied on for 60-75 yards.
Wide Receivers
Russell Gage (21%). I’m gonna keep recommending him until people buy in. Atlanta’s aerial attack is prolific enough to support three receivers. He’s had touchdown in back-to-back games, is receiving a high target total (21 through 2 games), and has a reasonable matchup against the Bears in Week 3. You could certainly do worse.
Michael Pittman (15%). This recommendation is based on three things: (1) Parris Campbell hurt his knee on Sunday and is out for the foreseeable future; (2) the Colts play the Jets in Week 3; and (3) the Jets are bad. I suspect we’ll also see some Nyheim Hines in the passing game in this one, but if I’m picking a Colts WR to step up, it’s Pittman.
Chase Claypool (5%). The lack of targets are concerning, but the dude just keeps making big plays. He is justifying a larger role in the offense. This week the Steelers get Houston’s leaky secondary. Warning: THIS IS A RISKY PLAY. He’s not getting the target volume to suggest he’s a safe option. But the dude is a big play waiting to happen. If that big play doesn’t come, you could be looking at a goose egg.
KJ Hamler (1%). Courtland Sutton is done for the season, which should thrust Hamler into a starring role. Disclaimer: Drew Lock is out for 2-6 weeks, so you’re relying on Jeff Driskel. But Hamler looked decent with Driskel in his debut, and the Broncos are trying to find ways to get the ball in his hands. They play the Bucs this week, though, who have a better defense than you’d think. If I’m Todd Bowles, I’m probably scheming to stop Noah Fant and the running game, which may leave Hamler free to get open deep against loaded fronts.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas (32%). The guy saw nine targets on Sunday. He’s Dwayne Haskins’ favorite target behind Terry McLaurin, so he’s likely to have a number of good days this season, either through red zone scores or sheer volume. This week they head to Cleveland, and the Bengals and Ravens have demonstrated that you can score on the Browns.
Jimmy Graham (10%). Everyone scores on Atlanta.
Jordan Akins (2%). He posted a touchdown in Week 1 and had 7 receptions in Week 2. He’s a cheap source of fantasy points and is tied to a good quarterback. They play Pittsburgh in Week 3, which is concerning, but you’re probably better off throwing at their linebackers than their secondary.
Jordan Reed (6%). DISCLAIMER: DO NOT PLAY JORDAN REED IF GEORGE KITTLE IS ACTIVE. This recommendation is made only if Kittle is out, so watch the injury report. But the Niners have a road tilt against the Giants this week, and New York is terrible against the tight end. He’s a decent bet to score if Kittle is inactive, especially San Francisco’s offensive weapons are dropping like flies (Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, even Jimmy G).