Overvalued Players in 2020 Fantasy Drafts
It has become an annual tradition for Hail Mary Football to look at ADP data from ESPN and provide an overview of the overvalued players in fantasy drafts. This year is no different. Here are five overvalued players for 2020, based on ESPN ADP data from August 25:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs (ADP 12.9). CEH’s fantasy stock has been soaring since Damien Williams opted out, but the hype train is starting to go off the rails. Look, I love CEH as much as the next guy, but the dude profiles similarly to Giovani Bernard. Would you be drafting Gio Bernard in the first round if he played for the Chiefs? I wouldn’t. Although CEH is a productive player, we should not overlook the fact that he is undersized (5’7”) and slow (4.61 forty time, 36th percentile speed score). Could he be good? Sure. But his size and speed suggests he’s not a workhorse at the NFL level. Plus, even if he is, it’s not like the Chiefs rushing offense has been all that and a bag of potato chips with Eric Bieniemy at the helm, finishing 16th and 23rd over the past two seasons. It seems like people are drafting CEH right now at his ceiling, but are not baking in his floor.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers (ADP 21.6). My feelings on Ekeler are well-documented. He’s not a great runner (career high of 557 yards rushing), and his receiving numbers are likely to take a dip with Tyrod Taylor under center. Last season’s receiving total (92 catches) is likely to be reduced by about a third given the quarterback. Is he really all that attractive with 60 catches and 625 yards receiving rather than 92 and 993? And do you really think he’ll repeat his feat of 8 receiving touchdowns? Ekeler, like Edwards-Helaire, is being drafted at his ceiling. I maintain that fantasy owners are much better off in drafting his clone, James White (ADP 111.4), in Round 9 than Ekeler in Round 2.
Amari Cooper, WR, Cowboys (ADP 32.6). Cooper’s struggles with consistency are well-documented. This year, he’s also got to fend off promising rookie CeeDee Lamb (in addition to third-year WR Michael Gallup). Are we really expecting Cooper to be better than he was last season? Selecting him in the third round, potentially as your WR1, is flirting with disaster. He’s going ahead of several high upside receivers that are much more reliable options, such as Juju Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore, Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, Odell Beckham, and Cooper Kupp. Cooper is easy to pass on in Round 3.
David Johnson, RB, Texans (ADP 47.7). Johnson is more name than game at this point in his career. He has played five seasons in the league, but has only one season with more than 1,000 yards rushing - and that was all the way back in 2016. In three of his five seasons, he has rushed for fewer than 600 yards - and he’s rushed for fewer than 400 yards in two of the past three. Buying Johnson at his fourth round price tag - ahead of guys like Melvin Gordon, James Conner, and Jonathan Taylor - is insane to me. If you’re just in love with the idea of a guy getting the backfield all to himself, draft Bears running back David Montgomery (ADP 79.1) three rounds later.
Justin Tucker, K, Ravens (ADP 95.7). Tucker may very well end up being the best kicker in fantasy this year. But drafting your kicker in Round 7, where he’s being selected, is folly. You are passing up on valuable wide receivers and quarterbacks in that range.
Who are your overvalued players in 2020? Let us know in the comments!