Weekly Hail Mary: Week 7
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate for the season. Last week we crushed it, hitting on 6 of 11 (54%). Here are last week’s recommended plays:
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins - HIT - 343 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT. Well, it wasn’t pretty, but he came through in the end. You’ll never complain when you get over 300 yards and three scores.
Andy Dalton - MISS - 266 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. This one is on me. As a lifelong Bengals fan, and decade-long Andy Dalton critic, I should have known better. This dude always wilts in prime time. He was never able to handle the bright lights during his tenure with the Bengals, and in 2020 with Dallas, it’s a new song but the same old chorus. Dalton was absolutely dreadful against the Cardinals despite getting 54 pass attempts. Hopefully now people will realize that the Bengals weren’t holding Andy Dalton back; Andy Dalton was holding the Bengals back. And he’s going to hold the Cowboys back, too.
Running Backs
J.D. McKissic - HIT - 8 rushes for 41 yards; 6 catches for 43 yards. Is it a sexy stat line? No. But if you were in a pinch this week due to byes from Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, and Chris Carson, and you picked up McKissic and got his 84 yards from scrimmage and 6 receptions, you’re probably pretty happy. He did enough to keep you competitive in your matchup.
Matt Breida - MISS - 6 for 15; 2 catches for 7 yards. Breida didn’t do much with 8 touches against a pitiful Jets defense.
Jamaal Williams - MISS - 4 for 34. It was surprising to see Williams held without a catch in a game where the Packers were playing from behind for most of the afternoon.
Wide Receivers
Chase Claypool - HIT - 4 for 74; 2 rushes for 7 yards, TD. Claypool was second on the team in targets, which is encouraging after his breakout game last week, and he continues to see some rushing attempts. He has a rushing score in back to back weeks.
Preston Williams - HIT - 2 for 18; TD. The touchdown saved you, but hey, the points count. Fitzpatrick doesn’t seem to look for Williams unless the Dolphins are in the red zone, but those are the money targets. I’ll take it.
Tim Patrick - HIT - 4 for 101. You’d like to see more catches, but any time you get 100 yards out of a waiver wire pickup, you’re thrilled.
John Hightower - MISS - 1 for 50. Hightower is serving as a deep threat for this offense and not much else.
Tight Ends
Irv Smith, Jr. - HIT - 4 for 55. It’s not a stellar stat line by any means, but this is the sort of line that passes for a low-end TE1 these days. (Also, I did note last week that since I talked up Smith, Kyle Rudolph would be the one to perform, and that also happened, as Rudolph was the one who came away with a score.)
Cameron Brate - MISS - 1 for 3. Just wasn’t involved in this gameplan, and Rob Gronkowski got the tight end score.
Jordan Akins - REMOVED - Akins was ruled out again with a concussion.
And now the Hail Marys for Week 7:
Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton, Cowboys (33% owned). Yeah, yeah, I know I trashed him in the intro. But I’ve also watched enough Andy Dalton games to know that he’s perfectly capable of delivering a useful fantasy performance in a 1 o’clock regional game that no one else is watching except the fans of the teams involved. Dalton is on the road against the Washington Football Team in Week 7, and no one is watching that game outside of those in the Dallas or DC metro areas, or those with NFL Sunday Ticket. Although the Footballers have a better defense than people think, it’s a pretty rough week for streaming quarterbacks, and you have to like the Cowboys’ weapons at the skill positions regardless of opponent. Dalton has tantalizing bounce-back potential here.
Kyle Allen, Washington (3%). I feel pretty icky recommending this Checkdown Charlie, but as I said, it’s a rough week for streaming quarterbacks. Allen gets to face off against Dallas’ farce of a defense, so there’s opportunity for him to deliver a decent stat line. And by reasonable, I mean something like 250 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Derek Carr, Raiders (23%). This recommendation makes me the most uneasy (even more uneasy than promoting Blandy Dalton, bleh). The Raiders face off against the Buccaneers, who have a Top-3 defense against opposing fantasy quarterbacks. On its face, this is a matchup you’d want to stay away from - especially after the fits they just gave Aaron Rodgers in a nationally televised game. But I’m willing to consider Carr this week because it’s a home game for the Raiders, and Jon Gruden gets to square off in prime time against the the only team that’s ever fired him. You know he’d love to embarrass Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football. I expect the Raiders to be aggressive in this one and take plenty of deep shots.
Running Back
Boston Scott, Eagles (14%). Miles Sanders went down with a serious knee injury, which means this should be the Boston Scott show. It’s not easy to find running backs who are guaranteed touches at this point in the season, so pounce on Scott if you get the opportunity. He has a home date against the Giants on Thursday Night Football this week.
J.D. McKissic, Washington (11%). He’s going to continue being a recommendation just due to the volume he’s seeing in the passing game. Believe it or not, he offers a relatively safe weekly floor due to his involvement as a pass-catcher. Plus, this past week, he led the team in rushing yards (and had only one fewer carry than Antonio Gibson).
Frank Gore, Jets (31%). Yuck. He’s a HMF mainstay, but he has no upside and he’s completely uninspiring. If you start Gore, you’re expecting 60 yards from scrimmage and probably no scores. He a true desperation floor play. The only thing he has going for him is that he’s probably a lock to see more touches than any other back on that putrid team. I genuinely wonder if there are any fantasy managers with ten or more years of experience who have never owned Gore.
JaMycal Hasty, 49ers (1%). This is the recommendation most likely to bite me, but the UDFA received more carries than every other 49ers running back other than Raheem Mostert (who got hurt). If Mostert is unavailable in Week 7, it could be Hasty who is asked to carry the load, with Jet McKinnon sprinkling in on passing downs.
Giovani Bernard, Bengals (49%). [Editor’s Note: This recommendation was added Saturday 10/24.] He doesn’t technically qualify for the list due to how much he’s been added over the last couple days, but with Joe Mixon being ruled out for Week 7, Bernard should see the bulk of the touches for the Bengals. If he’s available in your league, he’s a worthy pickup. The Browns have a solid run defense, but Bernard can do damage in the passing game. He offers a solid floor as an RB2 with the upside for more.
Wide Receiver
TIm Patrick, Broncos (18%). I don’t particularly love his matchup against KC this week, but I’m assuming that Jerry Jeudy gets the WR1 treatment, leaving Patrick matched up with lesser corners. Plus, Denver is going to have to throw a ton to keep up with Patrick Mahomes & Co.
Darnell Mooney, Bears (2%). Allen Robinson is going to be covered by Jalen Ramsey, which means that the Bears are going to have to move the ball through the air by relying on Mooney, Anthony Miller, and their tight ends. I like Mooney’s deep speed in this one, and the prime time matchup gives you a reason to tune in for Monday Night Football.
Travis Fulgham, Eagles (31%). Temper expectations on Fulgham this week, as he’s likely to be covered by James Bradberry and is playing on a short week. But he’s had back-to-back solid outings and has reached every-week-starter territory until he strings together a few clunkers.
Tight End
Ian Thomas, Panthers (8%). Warning: Every time I recommend Ian Thomas, he posts a goose egg. This is a very lukewarm endorsement. I don’t like the player, at all. I think he’s a backup-level talent. But he does start for the Panthers, and they face off against New Orleans on Sunday, which is worst in the league at giving up fantasy points to the tight end.
Drew Sample, Bengals (3%). Drew Sample is also a backup-level talent, but Cleveland is just outside the top-5 in most fantasy-friendly matchups for tight ends. Plus, the last time Cincinnati faced Cleveland, Sample was targeted 9 times and caught 7 balls for 45 yards. And he only became the primary tight end midway through that game after starter CJ Uzomah went down with an Achilles’ injury.
Greg Olsen, Seahawks (21%). It’s not a particularly great matchup against the Cardinals. It’s not that Olsen has looked tremendous this year. It’s just that… well… he catches passes from Russell Wilson. He’s an easy way to get exposure to this high-flying offense, and Wilson has a penchant for targeting tight ends in the end zone. You’re banking on a touchdown here, but he’s as good of a bet as anyone.