Weekly Hail Mary: Week 5
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues.
Week 4 was a mixed bag. We absolutely nailed it at running back, as each recommended play (Wayne Gallman, Ronald Jones, and Darrel Williams) found the end zone. In fact, Gallman and Williams both found the end zone twice! So, like … you’re welcome, kids. The recommended wide receiver plays didn’t quite pan out, but at least it’s clear that top recommended play Preston Williams was Josh Rosen’s favorite target. It’s process over results here, and I think if we stick with Williams (bear in mind that the Dolphins are on a bye in Week 5), better days are ahead. I suspect it’s not the last time we’ll see him in this column. And as far as tight ends, we hit at a 50% rate, as the Broncos’ Noah Fant found his way into the end zone. Let’s see if we can fare as well or better this upcoming week. Your Hail Marys for Week 5:
Running Backs
Giovani Bernard, Bengals (14% owned). With as much as the Bengals have been throwing this season, this recommendation is based on Bernard’s potential as a pass-catcher. He doesn’t have much value as a runner as long as Joe Mixon is healthy, but he does have potential to grab 3 or 4 passes in a game and turn it into 40-50 yards.
Nyheim Hines, Colts (19%). Marlon Mack just went down with an injury, Hines is the Colts’ pass-catching back, and Indy has a Sunday night date with the high-scoring Chiefs on Sunday night. He has at least 3 catches in three of four games this year, and he has the potential for his role to grow due to Mack’s injury. This is probably your best bet for production in Week 5 among the HMF running backs.
Jordan Wilkins, Colts (2%). If Marlon Mack is missing time, Wilkins will be the early-down banger. But be warned! This pickup is wholly contingent upon Mack’s injury. If Mack suits up, ignore Wilkins.
Dexter Williams, Packers (0%). This is a lukewarm recommendation, as this is a DEEP Hail Mary. But here’s the logic: Jamaal Williams got stretchered off the field in the Packers’ Week 4 game, and before that coach Matt LaFleur had said he wanted to divvy up carries evenly between Williams and starter Aaron Jones. If he insists on reducing Jones’ workload, Notre Dame alum Dexter Williams is the likely beneficiary for as long as Williams is out.
It’s really slim pickings at running back right now, to be honest.
Wide Receivers
*Start of the Week* Dante Pettis, 49ers (21%). You either believe in Dante Pettis or you do not. I believe. Watching this guy play in his rookie season of 2018, he had all the skills you would want to see in someone who projects as a number 1 wide receiver, both in the NFL and in fantasy. He earned his way into Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse for some reason and is not playing the full complement of snaps, but this dude can flat out ball, and talent eventually wins out. He grabbed his first touchdown of the season in Week 3 before the 49ers headed into their bye. I suggest buying now before he explodes, as a huge game is coming. It may not be this week, but it’s coming soon. It’s not possible for this type of talent to stay dormant for long. San Francisco plays the Browns on Monday Night Football in Week 5, so if he goes off in that game, your whole league will be watching, and you’ll have missed your chance to buy. Pettis was tremendously productive in college, the 49ers traded up to get him in the second round of last year’s draft, and he ended 2018 by scoring four touchdowns in his final five games. Read the tea leaves, and get him while you can.
A.J. Brown, Titans (10%). It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell you to pick up a guy who just scored two touchdowns. But don’t overlook the fact that this guy was more productive in college at Ole Miss than his more highly regarded, freak-of-nature teammate, D.K. Metcalf. He also was a higher draft pick. He has three touchdowns in four games, as well, but this is a bit of a buyer beware situation. Although he had 94 yards receiving and two touchdowns on Sunday, he did it on only three targets. In fact, he hasn’t seen more than 5 targets in a game yet in his career. With such low volume, in a generally bad passing attack, he’s far less likely to boom than to bust. So be really cautious before inserting him into your starting lineup. I’m less confident in him than the other HMF wide receiver plays this week.
James Washington, Steelers (18%). Full disclaimer: This article was written/published before the Steelers’ Week 4 Monday Night game with the Bengals, so I have no idea if he stunk, went off, or got injured. But as this is written on Sunday Night of Week 4, he seems to be one of the primary beneficiaries of Donte Moncrief’s deactivation. Washington was a second round pick with a great production profile coming out of college, and, as luck would have it, he’s catching balls from his college quarterback again. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him return WR3 value the rest of the way.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers (26%). Samuel is actually leading the 49ers wide receivers in snaps, and he’s being used as both a rusher and as a receiver. It’s always risky to rely on a rookie wide receiver, but this guy appears to have the trust of the coaching staff and of QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Part of fantasy is volume, and Samuel is poised to get just that.
Tight Ends
Jack Doyle, Colts (20%). Of course, once I stopped recommending Doyle, he delivered. On Sunday against the Raiders, he had a season-high 8 targets and found the end zone for the first time this season. Given next week’s potential shootout with the Chiefs looming, I’d gobble up whatever pieces I could in the Colts’ offense.
Noah Fant, Broncos (11%). Nothing wrong with going back to the well when it works, right? Fant was a recommended play last week, and he responded with a midrange touchdown. I think his role continues to grow as the season wears on, and with Joe Flacco’s historical penchant for targeting the tight end over the course of his career, it’s not a horrible gamble. He was a first round pick for a reason, after all.
Chris Herndon, Jets (16%). Herndon was slapped with a four-game suspension to start the year and the Jets had their bye in Week 4. I’m not sure whether that means he’s eligible to return in Week 5 (as he hasn’t played for four weeks) or Week 6 (by which point he would have sat out four games). In either event, scoop him up if you’re in dire straits at tight end. He has a decent connection with Sam Darnold and averaged nearly 13 yards per catch as a rookie.
Bye week teams: Lions, Dolphins