Weekly Hail Mary: Week 3
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues.
We had a number of “hits” in Week 2, including D.J. Chark (7 catches on 9 targets and a touchdown), Mecole Hardman (4 catches for 61 yards and a touchdown), Hollywood Brown (8 catches on 13 targets for 86 yards), Terry McLaurin (5 catches for 62 yards and a touchdown), John Ross (4 for 112 and a touchdown), and Tyler Eifert (poor yardage but a touchdown and three catches). We still haven’t been able to snag a decent running back, so hopefully we’ll be able to snag a quality runner this week. As always, we are focused on process over results. The Hail Marys for Week 3:
Running Backs
Rex Burkhead, Patriots (14%). Sexy Rexy turned 7 touches into 68 yards on Sunday, a week after turning 13 into 52. He’s the Patriots’ second-best receiving back and second-best runner, so his multi-faceted abilities make him a little matchup-proof, and he always has the capacity to take on more work in the event of an injury.
Frank Gore, Bills (8%). Only if you can stomach it. As always, Gore is a desperation floor play. But he did have 21 touches on Sunday - to Devin Singletary’s 6 - and found the end zone. You could certainly do worse.
Ty Montgomery, Jets (19%). Le’Veon Bell is dealing with an ailing shoulder. TyMont is the next man up. Sometimes, it’s that simple. If Bell doesn’t play, Montgomery is the man you want. Ignore Week 1 stats - this is a speculative add based on the potential that he could be the lead dog. But if Bell is taken off the injury report, do not pick up Montgomery. This add would be entirely based on Bell’s unavailability. Gore or Burkhead would be better plays than Montgomery if Bell is active.
Bonus name: Jaylen Samuels, Steelers (35%). This is a bit of a cheat, because Samuels’ ownership is just above the eligiblity threshold, but throwing him out in case he’s available in your league. If James Conner is forced to miss any extended period of time, Samuels should be the workhorse back for the Steelers.
Wide Receivers
Start of the Week: D.J. Chark, Jaguars (12%). Ah yes, a repeat name from last week. With all due respect to Dede Westbrook, “Baby Chark,” as I like to call him, is quietly emerging as Jacksonville’s top target. After leading the team in yardage in Week 1 (and scoring), he led the team in targets and catches in Week 2 and also posted another score. He had nine targets; no other Jaguar wideout had more than five. He also caught seven passes; no other Jaguar had more than four. This is probably your last chance to get Chark off waivers, so buy now.
A.J. Brown, Titans (24%). Another repeat from last week. If no one in your league picked him up after Week 1, he’s probably still out there after Week 2, but he didn’t have a bad week this week. No Titans wideout exceeded Brown’s 5 targets and 3 catches; although, to be fair, both totals were matched by Corey Davis. The point is, he’s already matching Davis in terms of production, and is seeing a meaningful target share. It is not unreasonable to expect his role to grow as the season progresses.
KeeSean Johnson, Cardinals (2%). The production isn’t there yet, but the snaps are. Johnson is the least-heralded of Arizona’s three rookie receivers, but he seems to be the one who has earned Kliff Kingsbury’s trust the quickest. Johnson is getting some run in the four-wide sets, and has 12 targets through the first two games. He also converted a two-point conversion on Sunday, so clearly there are some plays being drawn up for him.
Demarcus Robinson (5%). Apparently Patrick Mahomes doesn’t need Tyreek Hill. A week after Sammy Watkins exploded for nearly 200 yards and three receiving touchdowns, Robinson put up a heck of an encore, nabbing 6 receptions for 172 yards and two scores. The rest of the league has been put on notice that they need to take Robinson seriously as a threat in the Chiefs’ offense. Temper your expectations, though. He caught all six of his targets on Sunday (not sustainable), whereas Sammy Watkins was targeted 13 times, which was more than double any other Chiefs’ wide receiver.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers (13%). The dude hardly comes off the field, and he is being used in a variety of ways. On Sunday, he posted 5 catches for 87 yards and his first career touchdown, and was also given two carries. He is quickly establishing himself as the 49ers de facto #1 wideout - at least, for as long as Dante Pettis is in the Shanahan doghouse.
Tight Ends
Will Dissly, Seahawks (3%). Any time a player scores two touchdowns in one game, you have to pay attention. Seattle is light on pass-catchers behind Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, and Dissly appears to have Russell Wilson’s trust in the red zone.
Jack Doyle, Colts (22%). A repeat name from last week, Doyle has a history of production with Jacoby Brissett (see his 2017 season). Give him one more week to show you what he can do.
Tyler Eifert, Bengals (9%). Another repeat name from last week. If you were desperate enough to start him, Eifert rewarded you with a touchdown. The early season returns from the Bengals’ offense demonstrate that Zac Taylor knows how to maximize the strengths of his personnel. Despite having a porous offensive line, he’s getting quality production of out Andy Dalton, Tyler Boyd, and John Ross, and on Sunday he added Eifert to the list. Taylor appears to recognize that Eifert’s greatest strengths are in the red zone, and that’s where he’s using him. There’s no better target than an end zone target.
Jason Witten, Cowboys (15%). Speaking of guys getting end zone targets, the old timer has posted two weeks in a row with a short score. There’s not a lot of upside to Witten at this stage in his career, but if Dak Prescott is going to give him end zone looks, then like Eifert, he’s a worthy touchdown-dependent streamer.