Overvalued Players Entering 2018 Drafts
One of the quickest ways to wreck your fantasy squads is by overpaying during the draft. While it's okay to pay full value for a player, you never want to pay more than full value -- unless the player is not being accurately priced by the market. Below are five players whose in-season production likely will not match their draft day price tag. Avoid them unless you can get them at a discount. All results are taken from Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP data for 12-team non-PPR leagues as of August 25, 2018.
Dalvin Cook (1.12) - He's a good player, but I would have a really tough time making my first round pick a guy coming off a serious knee injury who has only played four games in the NFL. Do we even know what he is yet?
Derrick Henry (2.12) - Way too high for a back in a timeshare. A second round pick? Hard pass. He's going ahead of guys like LeSean McCoy, TY Hilton, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill.
Alex Collins (3.03) - Alex Collins had a solid stat line last year. And he was a former 5 star recruit coming out of high school, which I generally like. But when I watch him, I don't see someone who is all that different than Terrance West... the guy who had an eerily similar stat line in 2016 (774 yards and 5 TDs) to Collins' 2017 (973-6). The guy who has been cut twice since that time. I like Alex Collins as a potential RB2, but not at the cost of an early third round pick. Look elsewhere.
Deshaun Watson (4.05) - It's called regression, folks. No way Watson can keep up the TD rate he got away with last year. And he threw a number of balls that should have been picked. Those types of things tend to balance out in the end. Plus, he's coming off a serious knee injury. The fourth round is way too early for any QB, but especially one with all those question marks.
Josh Gordon (4.11) - You're going to make a fourth round pick out of a guy who is one puff of marijuana away from never playing in the NFL again? A guy who hasn't played a full season since his rookie year, and hasn't played more than 5 games in four years? The man is an addict, and many addicts relapse - as I have seen countless times in my criminal defense practice. There is serious, serious risk with Gordon, and I think many fantasy players are overlooking it because (a) they don't understand the nature of his substance use disorder and (b) they can't forget his 2014. Don't take the bait. Go with more certainty when filling out your starting lineup. While Gordon is likely a league-winner if he stays healthy, he'll quickly torpedo your team if he's not. The risk is not worth the reward.