Numbers, Not Names
Too often in fantasy football, people draft or trade for their favorite players. That is a colossal mistake. Fantasy isn’t about players; it’s about numbers. At its core, what we play is a numbers game. Wow, that was profound.
Ok, not really. But I’ll say it again: at its core, what we play is a numbers game.
Numbers don’t care if Larry Fitzgerald is a household name and used to be good. This year, he stinks. And having him on your team instead of, say, Tyler Boyd - who went undrafted in most leagues - is a mistake. Sure, your lineup may look better on paper with Fitzgerald better than with Boyd. But Boyd is the one producing. Fitzgerald doesn’t have more than 3 catches in any week, other than in Week 1. Boyd, on the other hand, is averaging six catches a game. Which player would you rather have?
The point here is that you can have a tremendous advantage in fantasy football if you focus on numbers, and not names. Who are the players receiving the most carries? The most targets? Carries and targets are opportunities, and opportunities lead to production. Who plays the greatest number of snaps, runs the greatest number of routes, or has the highest target share on a given team? Those types of opportunities lead to production, and production leads to fantasy points.
These principles guide the Weekly Hail Mary column, but they can also guide you in your trade decisions. You might be able to get something valuable in exchange for guys on your roster whose names are bigger than their games. Think Amari Cooper, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy - guys who at one time had value who just aren’t up to snuff anymore. And then try to trade them for guys whose production exceeds their name recognition - the Tyler Locketts, Nyheim Hineses, and Kenny Golladays of the world. Look, I’m not giving you specific names to trade for, per se; I’m just trying to give you a sense of the type of transaction you’re looking to make.
Because every week, whether you win or lose isn’t based upon the names in your lineup; it’s based upon whether your team put up better numbers than the other team. Focus on the numbers.