2025 NFL Draft: The Overrated Prospects
Elsewhere on this site, I have posted my YA BOY list - those players who I believe are undervalued, and I am planting my flag on. But in this column, I’m doing the opposite. I’m calling out the players that I am lower on than consensus, and that I would shy away from at their current cost. You’ll see primarily guys projected to go in Rounds 1 and 2 on this list, as it’s difficult for a player to be overvalued if he’s not highly valued in the first place. (Is it really possible for a Day 3 pick to be overvalued?) So you will see a lot of popular names on this list. And yes, I understand that three years from now, some of these takes will look foolish. But I’ll at least give my rationale for why I would be avoiding these guys in the draft (at their expected cost) based on what we know now. Here are the prospects I think are overrated in 2025:
Tyler Booker, G, Alabama
According to the mock draft experts on social media, Booker should have his name called in Round 1. And that’s way too high for a guy who posted just a 3.68 relative athletic score (RAS), 1088th among guards since 1987. The folks who like him will say that he’s young (just 21, a true junior) and was a captain and first-team All-American for the Crimson Tide. Haters like me will note his poor athleticism and his pitiful 65.4 best-season run blocking grade per PFF, which is among the worst numbers for all guards who are likely to get drafted this year. Given those concerns, Round 1 is way too rich for me.
Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Sanders has seen his draft stock fluctuate quite a bit during this draft cycle, and it’s tough to figure out whether he’s going to go in the top 3 or tumble all the way into Round 2. My concerns with Deion’s kid are threefold: First, many of the reports (which may just be smoke) are that he really rubbed teams the wrong way in interviews - including teams who are in need of a starting quarterback. Second, based on the scouting reports I am reading, he doesn’t have a single elite trait. What is this guy’s superpower? He doesn’t seem to have one. Third, he doesn’t hit the measurables I like to see. My primary quarterback metrics (which I have adopted from FanDuel’s Jim Sannes - check him out) are age, starts, and QBR. Quarterbacks need to hit 2 of the 3: younger than 22, more than 30 starts, and QBR above 81.5. Sanders only hits 1 of the 3, with 50 starts in college. His QBR was 78.2 and he is 23 years old. It certainly gives me pause. Plus, he’s not great when pressured in non-blitz situations. His PFF pressure grade is 64.4, which is a very average number. To me, it confirms the scouting reports: he holds the ball too long and takes too many sacks.
Shemar Stewart, DE, Texas A&M
Stewart is a 5-star recruit who is a true junior and will be only 21 years old this season. He looks the part at 6’5, 281 pounds. And he is an absolute athletic freak who blew up the combine: 10’11’ broad jump, 40”(!) vertical jump, and a 1.58 10-yard split in the 40-yard dash, leading to a 9.99 RAS. Here’s the problem: his production was horrendous in college. He only had 4.5 sacks. Not just last season - 4.5 is the total. He had exactly 1.5 sacks every season. If he’s so insanely talented, why doesn’t he produce? He played on some loaded defensive lines in college, with other dudes who will be Top-50 picks. He got one-on-one matchups. But his tape, according to scouts, shows a player that lacks awareness. Plus, I’m concerned that the athletic testing numbers might be a bit deceiving, as he didn’t do any of the agility drills. That may explain why he wasn’t able to finish for more sacks in college. Admittedly, there are some sack artists in the NFL who didn’t really produce in college (hello, Danielle Hunter!), but those guys are the exception rather than the rule. I’m not saying Shemar Stewart isn’t worth a gamble at some point. But I am saying that I wouldn’t make that gamble in Round 1.
Josh Simmons, LT, Ohio State
I’ve never understood the hype on this guy. He’s coming off a torn patellar tendon (which some players never recover from), and he’s not a great run blocker (68.7 PFF grade). His success rate is just 93.64% (a metric that measures how often an offensive lineman has a “clean” rep as opposed to giving up a pressure or committing a penalty). That’s a bottom-5 number for offensive tackles in this class. He may be talented, but he seems like the sort of guy that has a lot of issues to clean up. In my view, the difference between a good offensive lineman and a bad offensive lineman often comes down to consistency. And Simmons, based on the math, isn’t very consistent.
Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Film guys love Golden. He was awesome in the college football playoffs. But his overall profile fails to suggest that he is an elite prospect. This is a guy whose best season yards per route run was just 1.67. Coincidentally, that was his career number, too. I like to see guys hit at least 2.0, and he fell woefully short of that. In terms of “counting” stats, his best season numbers are 41 receptions, 625 yards, and 8 touchdowns. That’s… good? His PFF grade is 68.4, which is likely to be the lowest for any wide receiver who gets drafted this year. If you want to make a case for him, it’s that he’s a good kick returner. But being a good kick returner shouldn’t get you first round draft capital.
Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
Emmanwori is a true junior who is barely 21 years old. He absolutely looks the part: 6’3 and 220 lbs. He’s insanely fast for his size, having posted a 4.38 forty yard dash, best among all safeties at this year’s combine. He has one of the best relative athletic scores of all time for a safety. But… his PFF grades aren’t great. His grade was 79.4, which was outside the top 15 among safeties likely to be drafted. If you want to make a case for him, he’s a good tackler, as he is one of only 6 safeties in this class with 200+ tackles, and the only one who achieved that in less than 4 years of college. But when I look at this guy, I just have worries that he might be another Obi Melifonwu. Maybe that’s not fair to Emmanwori. Maybe I’m holding against him Melifonwu’s failure to pan out in the NFL, since their profiles are so similar. I dunno. I just would have liked to see better grades in college to match his athletic gifts.
Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas
Depending on who you ask, Bond is a Day 2 pick. That’s way, way too high for my tastes. In addition to rumored attitude problems, the guy just isn’t that productive. He had a best-season 17.8% target share in college. Anything below 25% is a red flag, and anything below 22% is a HUGE red flag. His career Y/RR is also just 1.83, another red flag. His yards per game over his first 3 seasons were 34.4 (you want to see at least 50 YPG), and his best season YPG was 47.7% (you want to see at least 85). Plus, his best PFF grade was 74.7. There aren’t a whole lot of guys with that type of profile who have been successful in the NFL. I’ve got a sixth round grade on Bond.