2024 Post-Draft Thoughts: Rounds 4-7
This is a continuation of my draft notes. These notes provide context for the 2024 NFL draft picks: who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making these picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We already covered the Day 1 and Day 2 picks. Here are my notes for the fantasy-relevant Day 3 picks. Occasionally, I have sprinkled in players at non-fantasy positions that I felt strongly about.
Round 4
Pick 4.01 (101 overall) - Carolina Panthers - Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas. Some had Sanders as the #2 tight end on the board, but I never quite understood the hype. He’s an okay athlete, I guess, but his PFF grade is mediocre (75.6) and he benefited from elite QB play in college (Quinn Ewers) while he was allowed to roam free in college as defenses focused their attention on Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. The landing spot is good, though, as there isn’t much in front of him on Carolina’s depth chart.
4.02 (102 overall) - Denver Broncos - Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon. FINALLY. Troy Franklin was one of the analytics community’s favorite prospects in the draft, and it was widely assumed that he would go in the early second round. This was quite the slide for him, but it reunites him with college quarterback Bo Nix. He also will benefit from a creative play-caller in Sean Payton, and a WR depth chart that is lacking in talent outside of Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims. In addition to putting up 81 catches and nearly 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns last year in the Pac 12, Franklin checks in with a PFF grade near 85 and a yards per route run of 3.32. The analytics say this guy can flat out ball, and it’s totally baffling why he fell to day 3 of the draft, unless teams are just scared off by his slight frame (6’2, 183 lbs.).
4.07 (107 overall) - New York Giants - Theo Johnson, TE, Penn State. Johnson posted a perfect 10.00 RAS. But I’m still skeptical. He wasn’t a dominator at Penn State, and Penn State recently has a history of putting tight ends in the NFL who are disappointments: Mike Gesicki, Zach Kuntz (went to Penn State before transfer to Old Dominion), Brenton Strange. Pat Freiermuth has probably been the best of the bunch. I’m not optimistic about Johnson, although the opportunity should be there with Darren Waller’s expected retirement.
4.10 (110 overall) - New England Patriots - Javon Baker, WR, UCF. Like Franklin, this is another guy the analytics community loved. I’m higher on Baker than I am on the Patriots’ second-rounder, Ja’Lynn Polk. Baker was originally an Alabama recruit but transferred to UCF after he got buried on the depth chart. At UCF last season, he posted over 1100 yards (with generally poor QB play), 21.9 yards per catch, and 7 touchdowns. He posted a PFF grade above 80 (typically a prerequisite to being a good NFL receiver) and had a yards per route run rate of 3.21 (anything over 3.0 is elite). It’s a good landing spot for a talented player, who only needs to beat out players like Kendrick Bourne, Juju Smith-Schuster, and KJ Osborn for snaps.
4.13 (113 overall) - Baltimore Ravens - Devontez “Tez” Walker, WR, North Carolina. A one trick pony to me. He’s a decent deep threat but I didn’t see much else in the profile. His production at Kent State was significantly better than his production at North Carolina. I’m glad to see him go to Baltimore, which ruins most decent WRs anyway.
4.14 (114 overall) - Javon Foster, LT, Mizzou. Mentioning him just because he was on my YA BOY list. Overall PFF grade of 84.8, run blocking grade of 86.5, and pass blocking grade of 80.9. The only other player in this draft class to grade at least that well in all 3 metrics was fifth overall pick Joe Alt.
4.15 (115 overall) - Cincinnati Bengals - Erick All, TE, Iowa. All was a team captain at Michigan before needing spinal surgery and transferring to Iowa for his final season. In my view, he’s the latest in a long line of very good Iowa tight ends - that is, provided his health holds up. In addition to the back surgery previously mentioned, he’s rehabbing a torn ACL.
4.20 (120 overall) - Miami Dolphins - Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee. I love Jaylen Wright. The kid runs like he’s shot out of a cannon. He goes to the team that knows how to use his speed best in Mike McDaniel’s Miami Dolphins. He’s probably the long-term Raheem Mostert replacement, and that should fit like a hand in a glove. I suspect he has more value in 2025 than 2024.
4.21 (121 overall) - Seattle Seahawks - A.J. Barner, TE, Michigan. Barner is a better blocker than pass catcher, and he’s behind Noah Fant on the depth chart. He can probably be safely ignored for fantasy.
4.23 (123 overall) - Houston Texans - Cade Stover, TE, Ohio State. Bummer of a landing spot, because I thought Stover had the chops to be a low TE1/high TE2 for fantasy purposes. For now, he’s buried behind Dalton Schultz in Houston.
4.25 (125 overall) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Bucky Irving, RB, Oregon. Irving’s horrendous showing at the combine has me completely passing. Although he posted a solid 88.1 PFF grade, he’s undersized at 5’9, 192, and his speed score was an abysmal 89.6. The NFL has not been kind to prospects with a speed score below 92, per LateRoundQB’s JJ Zachariason. He lands in a good spot as the clear backup to Rachaad White, but if you’re buying into him, you’re buying into situation, not talent. I hate buying into situation.
4.27 (127 overall) - Philadelphia Eagles - Will Shipley, RB, Clemson. Shipley is decent at a lot of things but doesn’t excel at any one thing. He strikes me as the sort of guy that real-life coaches will like a lot more than fantasy managers do.
4.28 (128 overall) - Buffalo Bills - Ray Davis, RB, Kentucky. If it wasn’t for his advanced age (24 on draft day), Ray Davis would have one of the cleanest prospect profiles in this draft class. He posted an 87.5 PFF score, a 101.1 speed score (weight-adjusted 40 time), and an 11% target share. This kid can do it all. The Bills got a good one in Davis, and he should be able to carry the load himself if James Cook goes down.
4.29 (129 overall) - San Francisco 49ers - Isaac Guerendo, RB, Louisville. Guerendo is an athletic freak and should absolutely smash if he has to carry the load in the event of a CMC injury. His 4.33 40-yard-dash at 221 lbs is absolutely insane, resulting in a 125.1 speed score. (Translated: He’s big AND fast.) The knock on him is that he’s almost 24 years old. The dude has been around for so long that he backed up Jonathan Taylor in college.
4.30 (130 overall) - Baltimore Ravens - T.J. Tampa, Iowa State. Tampa was getting some late-first-round love (mostly from Mel Kiper) as the draft approached, so it seems Baltimore got a good value with this selection.
4.31 (131 overall) - Kansas City Chiefs - Jared Wiley, TE, TCU. Mildly productive, but not a great athlete. I don’t understand the appeal.
4.32 (132 overall) - Detroit Lions - Sione Vaki, RB, Utah. He played both running back and safety at Utah. Not particularly outstanding at either. This doesn’t move the needle much for me. Strikes me as a special teams-type.
4.33 (133 overall) Kansas City Chiefs - Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State. Hicks was the #1 safety on my board, with a second round grade. He’s a redshirt sophomore with good size.
4.34 (134 overall) - New York Jets - Braelon Allen, RB, Wisconsin. The youngest running back in the class, Allen put up 3 years of solid production at Wisconsin, starting as an 18-year-old true freshman. He had 20 100-yard games in the past 2 years alone, which was best in this class. He’s a big back at 6’1, 235 pounds, but doesn’t offer much in the passing game.
4.35 (135 overall) - San Francisco 49ers - Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona. The diminutive Cowing (5’8, 168) put up a 90.3 best-season PFF grade. His career highs include 90 receptions, 1354 yards, and 13 touchdowns. He spent 4 years at UTEP before spending the last 2 at Arizona, so he’s an older prospect, but he did post back-to-back seasons in 2022-2023 of 85+ receptions. He could earn his bones as an NFL slot, but he lands on a suddenly-crowded depth chart in San Francisco.
Round 5
5.07 (142 overall) - Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Gould, WR, Oregon State. Projects best as a return man.
5.12 (147 overall) - Denver Broncos - Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame. The Broncos got some late value at the skill positions, first nabbing Troy Franklin in Round 4 and then snagging Audric Estime in Round 5. Estime’s timed speed is questionable, but his game speed was more than adequate. He is Notre Dame’s single-season rushing touchdown leader for a reason (18 TDs). He may be able to carve out a niche for the Broncos as their early-down and goal-line runner, especially with Javonte Williams entering a contract year.
5.15 (150 overall) - New Orleans Saints - Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina. It wasn’t all that long ago that Spencer Rattler was at Oklahoma and was seen as potential first-pick-in-the-draft material. Then Caleb Williams happened, and Rattler moved on to South Carolina. I’ve heard several analysts with expertise in offensive line play say that South Carolina’s line was about as bad as one can imagine, so maybe Rattler’s production was held down by the surrounding cast. It’s certainly not a bad late gamble for the Saints.
5.17 (152 overall) - Philadelphia Eagles - Ainias Smith, WR, Texas A&M. An undersized wide receiver with character concerns.
5.20 (155 overall) - Philadelphia Eagles - Jeremiah Trotter, Jr., LB, Clemson. Trotter’s father was a star with the Eagles, so it was neat for the team to bring the son into the fold as well. Trotter was a top-5 linebacker for me in this class.
5.21 (156 overall) - Cleveland Browns - Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville. A crowded depth chart, low volume passing attack, and wide receiver with a subpar profile. I’m looking elsewhere for fantasy purposes.
5.23 (158 overall) - Miami Dolphins - Mohamed Kamara, EDGE, Colorado State. Kamara was one of the more intriguing late-round pass rushers in the draft. He posted an 85.9 PFF grade and 64 pressures in 2023, including 13 sacks. His ten-yard split was below the magic number of 1.6 seconds at the combine, and he posted a broad jump in excess of ten feet (any broad jump over 10’ is a marker of explosiveness).
5.25 (160 overall) - Buffalo Bills - Edefuan Ulofoshio, LB, Washington. Another favorite from the YA BOY list.
5.30 (165 overall) - Baltimore Ravens - Rasheen Ali, RB, Marshall. This was a player I had on my board but just wasn’t really impressed with in the predraft process. 23 years old from a lesser conference and under 210 lbs. It’s a pass for me, dog.
5.31 (166 overall) - New York Giants - Tyrone Tracy, RB, Purdue. Now this landing spot intrigues me. Tracy is an older prospect, but that’s because he spent 4 years at Iowa as a wide receiver before transferring to Purdue and switching to running back. He’s certainly got pass catching ability. Plus, the depth chart ahead of him (Devin Singletary, Eric Gray) isn’t that strong, so he’s got a decent chance of being thrust into a starting role. If I’m going to draft a player based on situation, I want to do it with a late round pick like Tracy, not with an early pick.
5.32 (167 overall) - Jacksonville Jaguars - Keilan Robinson, RB, Texas. Robinson was on my board, but I did not have a draftable grade on him.
5.35 (170 overall) - New Orleans Saints - Bub Means, WR, Pitt. I wasn’t terribly impressed with Means, but New Orleans doesn’t have much to speak of in its WR room aside from Chris Olave, so he’ll have an opportunity to earn snaps. Mel Kiper, for what it’s worth, was high on him.
5.36 (171 overall) - New York Jets - Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State. Travis is tremendously inaccurate. That’s a bad trait for a quarterback. I’m not terribly interested, but I’m ok with it if you want to throw a dart at him based on Aaron Rodgers’ age and health.
5.38 (173 overall) - New York Jets - Isaiah Davis, RB, South Dakota State. Davis graded well in PFF’s metrics, but I was a lot more excited about him before he landed in New York, behind Breece Hall and Izzy Abanakanda and Braelon Allen. It’s likely going to be tough for him to climb that depth chart.
Round 6
6.05 (181 overall) - Los Angeles Chargers - Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy. The third-team All-American enters a depth chart behind Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and Joshua Kelley.
6.06 (182 overall) - Tennessee Titans - Jha’Quan Jackson, WR, Tulane. He’s a slot only player. It’s going to be hard for him to see snaps behind Kyle Philips and Treylon Burks.
6.08 (184 overall) - Miami Dolphins - Malik Washington, WR, Virginia. My love for Washington is well-documented in the YA BOYs article. This may end up being the steal of the draft. Love the fit with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle clearing out defenses for Washington to work the middle.
6.09 (185 overall) - Philadelphia Eagles - Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State. Wilson was seen as a potential 3rd/4th rounder leading into the draft, but his size (6’6) makes him such an outlier for wide receivers.
6.10 (186 overall) - Atlanta Falcons - Jase McClellan, RB, Alabama. I’ll be honest: I don’t understand the point of this pick. He’s a distant third behind Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
6.11 (187 overall) - Atlanta Falcons - Casey Washington, WR, Illinois. I did not have Washington on my board (I did have his teammate, slot WR Isaiah Williams). I’m assuming this is a special teams selection.
6.15 (191 overall) - Arizona Cardinals - Tejhuan Palmer, WR, UAB. Like Washington, I didn’t have this guy on my board.
6.16 (192 overall) - Seattle Seahawks - DJ James, CB, Auburn. I had a Day 2 grade on James, so I like the value for Seattle here.
6.17 (193 overall) - New England Patriots - Joe Milton III, QB, Tennessee. Milton has a cannon for an arm but is tremendously inaccurate. He played at both Michigan under Jim Harbaugh and Tennessee under Josh Heupel. If those QB whisperers can’t mold you, I don’t know who can. I’m wondering if maybe he’s in line for a position switch to tight end?
6.18 (194 overall) - Cincinnati Bengals - Tanner McLachlan, TE, Arizona. The dude is 25 years old, but he did set the receptions record at Arizona previously held by Rob Gronkowski. That’s got to count for something, right?
6.20 (196 overall) - Los Angeles Rams - Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson. He’s a great run-stopper. He’ll fill that nice for the Rams. He’s another late-rounder I really liked in this draft class.
6.29 (205 overall) - Houston Texans - Jawhar Jordan, RB, Louisville. I’m a Louisville hater, but I really don’t see any difference in this dude and Javian Hawkins from a few years ago.
6.32 (208 overall) - Las Vegas Raiders - Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshire. He was very productive at a lesser school and should be able to carve out a role in the NFL, but probably is well off the fantasy radar.
6.34 (210 overall) - Detroit Lions - Christian Mahogany, G, Boston College. How did this guy last until the 6th? He was one of the bright spots from the East-West Shrine game and boasted great size. Boston College almost always ran behind him in short yardage situations. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up a starter down the line.
6.37 (213 overall) - Los Angeles Rams - Jordan Whittington, WR, Texas. Not a very good player. He was on my board, but with a priority free agent grade.
6.40 (216 overall) - Dallas Cowboys - Ryan Flournoy, WR Southeast Missouri State. He’s 24.5 years old. Old players from lower level competition typically doesn’t equate to NFL success.
6.42 (218 overall) - Baltimore Ravens - Devin Leary, QB, Kentucky. Practice squad fodder.
Round 7
7.03 (223 overall) - Las Vegas Raiders - Trey Taylor, S, Air Force. Any time you can get a third-team All-American in Round 7, it’s a good get.
7.05 (225 overall) - Los Angeles Chargers - Brenden Rice, WR, USC. He’s the son of Jerry Rice, but he’s nowhere close to that level of prospect. But he’s still a decent situational deep threat.
7.11 (231 overall) - New England Patriots - Jaheim Bell, TE, Florida State. He’s more of an H-back type, but I’m intrigued by the player. He’s a good Y/RR prospect.
7.15 (235 overall) - Denver Broncos - Devaughn Vele, WR, Utah. 26 year old rookie with a 1.51 career Y/RR? Hard pass. He’s got a little bit of skill as a punt returner, so maybe that’s the role Denver envisions for him.
7.21 (241 overall) - Miami Dolphins - Tahj Washington, WR, USC. Averaged almost 20 yards per kick return and scored 8 touchdowns on 1,062 yards receiving. He had 3.06 Y/RR, which is always a key metric for me. I’d like his ability to carve out a role as a slot receiver better, but he’s competing with Malik Washington, who is a better prospect. It seems his best chance at making the roster is as the team’s kick returner.
7.25 (245 overall) - Green Bay Packers - Michael Pratt, QB, Tulane. I like the strategy here. Either take your QB in round 1 or take your developmental guy in Round 7. Anything else is likely a wasted pick. Pratt profiles as an NFL-caliber backup.
7.26 (246 overall) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Devin Culp, TE, Washington. An older prospect (24), but with a decent speed score (113.6). Unfortunately, he has a best-season PFF grade below 70.
7.33 (253 overall) - Los Angeles Chargers - Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan. I feel like this kid got the Harbaugh bump. He’s well off the fantasy radar.