2024 Post-Draft Thoughts: Round 1
These are my draft notes. This has been one of the site’s more popular pieces over the last few years, and has become an annual tradition. These notes should provide context for the 2024 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We’ll start with the first round.
Round 1
1.01 - Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams, QB, USC. As expected.
1.02 - Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU. Opinions were mixed on whether Daniels, Drake Maye, or J.J. McCarthy should have been the second pick. (My guy was McCarthy). Daniels is seen as Lamar Jackson 2.0. My concern with him is (a) his age and (b) his lack of production at Arizona State, where he had NFL caliber receivers in Brandon Aiyuk, Johnny Wilson, and Ricky Pearsall. If he had NFL talent, why wasn’t he good? I’m always wary of late bloomer QBs, but maybe I need to set those concerns aside in the NIL/COVID era.
1.03 - New England Patriots - Drake Maye, QB, UNC. The first three picks of the draft go as commonly mocked. Maye has all the tools to succeed in the NFL. At 21 years of age, he’s still developing, but he’s got a perfect package to mold as a franchise QB. I had him as my QB3, but the grade for me between him and JJ McCarthy was oh-so-close.
1.04 - Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison, Jr., WR, Ohio State. Harrison was my top overall prospect in this class, so I love the pick and the value getting him at #4. The number 1 WR on the Cardinals’ depth chart before this pick was Michael Wilson, so Harrison should get all the work he can handle right from the outset. The guy’s scouting report says he has no flaws other than struggling to get yards after the catch. A complete receiver prospect that is exactly what the Cardinals need, and he lands in a great spot for fantasy football purposes.
1.05 - Los Angeles Chargers - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame. It’s an outstanding pick in terms of value (#2 overall on my board), but it came as somewhat of a surprise. Alt was exclusively a LT in college, but the Bolts already have All Pro Rashawn Slater on the left side. He’s going to have to learn to play the right side. I’ve always hated using premium picks on a player who you are asking to change positions. That said, Alt is a good enough athlete to do it. I am somewhat surprised that the Chargers kept the pick - there were strong rumors they would trade down with a team looking to trade up for a quarterback - but ultimately they draft a bookend tackle to kick off the Jim Harbaugh era.
1.06 - New York Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU. There was some thought that the Giants were done with Daniel Jones and would move on to JJ McCarthy, but they make the pick to bolster their WR room, which was probably the worst in the league aside from Arizona. Good pick for a team that has seemingly lacked a playmaker on the outside since Odell Beckham left town in 2019.
1.07 - Tennessee Titans - J.C. Latham, RT, Alabama. I’m not nearly as high on Latham as most of the draft community. I was disappointed by his athleticism and he had a subpar success rate. Plus - and it pains me to be guilty of “helmet scouting” - but when is the last time an Alabama offensive tackle panned out? Film guys love Latham, analytics guys don’t. I’m an analytics guy. If I miss out on a player who “hits” but had subpar athleticism and measurables, I’m ok with that.
1.08 - Atlanta Falcons - Michael Penix, QB, Washington. Whaaaaaaaat??? The first absolute stunner of the draft. Most analysts didn’t even have a first round grade on Penix, due to his injury history, age, and accuracy issues. And the Falcons just signed Kirk Cousins to a big-money contract this off-season. It’s curious that they chose not to build up the team around Cousins, especially when they could have had their pick of pass-rushers, corners, or a wideout like Rome Odunze. And if they were intent on taking a quarterback, my opinion is that they should have taken JJ McCarthy. Time will tell if this pick was a mistake, or a stroke of genius.
1.09 - Chicago Bears - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington. Good value for the Bears. They need to continue to put weapons around Caleb Williams. Now Williams will enter his rookie season with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and D’Andre Swift.
1.10 - Minnesota Vikings - J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota. Outstanding pick for Minnesota. McCarthy is young. He’s a proven winner. He had a 48% completion percentage on 3rd and 4th down. He had a 67.6% completion percentage in college. He almost always throws past the sticks on third down. He’s going to a prime situation with a great play caller, a solid offensive line, and outstanding weapons in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson.
1.11 - New York Jets - Olu Fashanu, LT, Penn State. This was a smart pick for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. They have Tyron Smith on the left side, but he hasn’t made it through a full season in a long time. This selection ensures they’ll be able to keep the 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers upright.
1.12 - Denver Broncos - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon. Yeesh. This is a reach by a team that was desperate. Denver jettisoned Russell Wilson in the offseason, taking on a massive dead money cap hit just to get rid of him, and replace him with a 24-year-old rookie who played mostly in a horizontal offense. Desperation picks rarely work out. Sean Payton is really going to have to earn his paycheck with this one.
1.13 - Las Vegas Raiders - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia. Ummm… what? This team just used a second round pick last year on Michael Mayer. Now they’re using a first round pick on Brock Bowers? I get it that you want to take talented players, but come on. Using premium picks on tight ends two years in a row is bad process. It’s how bad teams stay bad. This is a franchise that is destined to continue to flounder.
1.14 - New Orleans Saints - Taliese Fuaga, RT, Oregon State. Ugh. Fuaga is my favorite player in this draft, and I desperately wanted him to be a Cincinnati Bengal. Great pick for Mickey Loomis and the Saints, and one that fills a position of need.
1.15 - Indianapolis Colts - Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA. You could have won a lot of money if you had bet that the first defender wouldn’t come off the board until pick 15. Latu came in with medical questions - he was medically retired by Washington due to a neck injury before transferring to UCLA - but it’s hard to deny his talent. He and Dallas Turner were generally viewed as the top two pass rushers in the draft, so this is a smart pick by Indianapolis at a position of need.
1.16 - Seattle Seahawks - Byron Murphy, DT, Texas. This pick deflated me. Murphy is the best interior pass rusher in the draft, and I was hoping and praying he’d fall to Cincinnati. Tremendous pick for Seattle. He can play both defensive tackle positions at a high level.
1.17 - Minnesota Vikings - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama. Minnesota trades up with Jacksonville to snag a falling prospect. Many thought that Turner would be the first defender taken in the draft, so this feels like a good get for Minnesota at 17. He’s an elite pass-rusher, and an elite athlete.
1.18 - Cincinnati Bengals - Amarius Mims, RT, Georgia. The Bengals strike at a position of need. Mims is probably the highest-upside tackle in this draft not named Joe Alt. It’s been a long time since the Bengals took a swing at offensive tackle, so this was a needed selection. There’s a lot of risk to Mims based on his lack of starts in college, but the limited sample size was impressive. He was one of the most impressive tackles in the class in terms of success rate, and he fits the mold of a Cincinnati tackle with his massive size.
1.19 - Los Angeles Rams - Jared Verse, DE, Florida State. He’s a tad older for a prospect (23.5), but he’s definitely a talented guy and it would be very surprising if he fails. It’s a necessary pass-rush pick for the Rams after Aaron Donald’s abrupt retirement.
1.20 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington. Fautanu is another dude that was more popular with the film guys than the analytics guys. I’m not a fan of 24-year-old rookies who are making a position change. If you want to look at the pick through rose-colored glasses, he’s a third team All-American, and analysts like Mel Kiper believe he has five-position versatility.
1.21 - Miami Dolphins - Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. I admit that it’s helmet scouting, but I just can’t help seeing Jayson Oweh 2.0: the Penn State pass rusher with great athleticism and PFF grades who lacks sack production. He definitely has the talent, but he needs to do a better job of getting home to the quarterback.
1.22 - Philadelphia Eagles - Quinyon Mitchell, DB, Toledo. Philadelphia’s greatest need was at corner, and one of the top 2 guys falls right into their lap. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, but GM Howie Roseman is both. There are concerns about Mitchell’s arm length and level of competition, but he acquitted himself well at the Senior Bowl.
1.23 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Brian Thomas, Jr., WR, LSU. Thomas was widely mocked as a first rounder after leading the NCAA with 17 receiving touchdowns and running a 4.33 forty, but he wasn’t my cup of tea. He’s a 1 year wonder who did almost all of his damage on posts and go routes. He’s fairly limited in what he can do (but so is DK Metcalf), but he has blazing speed. His “flying 20” - the last 20 yards of the 40 yard dash - was the fastest at this year’s combine at 1.78 seconds. Analytically, though, he’s a huge risk. His best PFF grade was 74.2, and his career yards per route run was below 2.0, which is a huge red flag for wide receivers (especially a wide receiver whose calling card is catching deep passes). He should have the opportunity to start right away alongside Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. But isn’t his skill set fairly duplicative of Davis?
1.24 - Detroit Lions - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama. The Lions traded up from 29 to get this pick from the Cowboys. I had Arnold as my #1 corner and a top 10 talent in this draft class, so the value is great here. Arnold is a former 5 star recruit who posted an 88.4 PFF grade in the SEC and has a 9.14 Relative Athletic Score. I’d be very surprised if Arnold wasn’t a good player at the next level.
1.25 - Green Bay Packers - Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona. I had Morgan with a late first round grade, but as a guard, not a tackle. As a general rule, I insist on having at least 33” arms to play tackle in the NFL, and Morgan came in just shy of that at 32.7”. That’s usually fatal to a prospect’s ability to play on the outside at a high level in the NFL. There are exceptions, of course, so perhaps Morgan may be one. But I just can’t help but wonder if he will have to move inside, even though he was announced by the team as a tackle when the pick was made. He also had the worst success rate of all offensive tackles in the class (a metric I developed that measures the rate at which a tackle gives up pressures and commits penalties), which made me lower on him than some of the film guys. The difference between a good offensive tackle and a bad offensive tackle is the rate at which mistakes are made.
1.26 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Graham Barton, C, Duke. This is a “we’re not gonna be flashy, we’re just gonna help our football team” sort of pick. Barton can play all across the line, but most analysts felt his best position would be at center.
1.27 - Arizona Cardinals - Darius Robinson, DT, Missouri. Interesting that the Cardinals announced Robinson as a tackle. He spent most of his college career at defensive tackle and was fairly underwhelming, but broke out as a super senior once he was moved to defensive end. Based on that, it seems that defensive end is his best position, so it is curious that the Cardinals announced him as a tackle.
1.28 - Kansas City Chiefs - Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs. The Chiefs traded up four spots with the Bills to make this selection. And wow - what a good fit. Is this Tyreek Hill 2.0? Worthy has a lot of warts as a prospect, but yeesh, that speed with Patrick Mahomes’ arm could be scary. My concern: According to research done by FantasyPoints’ Scott Barrett, his 9.2 yards per target on deep passes was the worst in the Power 5 among players likely to be drafted. In other words, Worthy, whose calling card is speed, is the worst deep threat in his own class. If Mahomes chucks it deep to him, is he gonna be able to catch it? I’m prepared to be very wrong, but Worthy had a best-season PFF grade that was below 80, and has regressed every year since his freshman year. This is a great landing spot, but I still don’t love the player. I’m prepared to be wrong, but I had a third round grade on him.
1.29 - Dallas Cowboys - Tyler Guyton, RT, Oklahoma. Hate this pick. Guyton is one of my least favorite players in this draft class. All tools, no production. His best season in college resulted in a sub-70 PFF grade, which is a recipe for disaster. Players don’t often significantly improve in PFF grade from college to the pros. Hate this pick, and believe the Cowboys will regret it.
1.30 - Baltimore Ravens - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson. Baltimore does what Baltimore does. They sit back, wait patiently, and grab a falling prospect at a position of need. Wiggins has 4.28 speed and is not yet 21 years old. Excellent pick for this point in the opening frame.
1.31 - San Francisco 49ers - Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida. This is the first pick since Penix that really shocked me. I had Pearsall solidly in the second round, and had reservations about that. He played with Jayden Daniels at Arizona State and couldn’t produce. He played with Anthony Richardson at Florida and couldn’t produce. I saw another analyst use the Moneyball quote: “If he’s a good hitter, why don’t he hit good?” He’s a 23-and-a-half year old rookie who averaged less than 2.0 yards per route run in college and never scored more than 5 touchdowns in any season - despite playing with 2 quarterbacks who were top 5 NFL draft picks. Ricky Pearsall makes me very, very uneasy. He may end up being a productive slot, but I have a lot of reservations about this player.
1.32 - Carolina Panthers - Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina. The Panthers traded one spot with the Bills to get into the first round. The Panthers’ love for Legette was one of the worst-kept secrets in the draft. Dave Canales purportedly told Legette during his visit, “If you’re there at 33 [the Panthers original pick], we’re taking you.” They had zeroed in on this guy a long time ago. Legette is a difficult evaluation based on his late breakout, but his breakout was oh-so-dominant. I had a high second round grade on Legette and really like the player, so I’m good with this pick at the end of Round 1. There’s certainly risk to his profile, but at this point in the draft, the risk is worth the reward. Plus, I love the dude’s accent!