2024 Potential Cap Cuts - AFC

Every year, we see “surprise” roster cuts across the NFL. But are these cuts really a surprise? Every team has an obligation to stay under the salary cap, so it really shouldn’t shock us when overpaid veterans are released to free up cap space. I take a look at the salary data on OvertheCap.com each year to make an educated guess at which highly priced veterans could be on the chopping block.

To be clear, this is not a “predictions” article. I’m not looking into my crystal ball and telling you these dudes will be cut. I’m saying that based on their salaries and production, and their teams’ respective cap situations, it wouldn’t be surprising if some of them were to be looking for a new team this off-season. This article will focus on the AFC, and our companion piece focuses on the NFC.

Before diving into it, there are a few basic concepts we should explain:

  • Cap Space: For 2023, the salary cap is projected to be roughly $255 million. Based on current contracts, each team is either over or under the projected cap. We will provide data, courtesy of OvertheCap.com (the source for all of our analysis in this article series), on how far each team is over or under the salary cap. Teams that are below the cap have money to spend on free agents and contract extensions; teams that are above the cap need to make cuts to get below it.

  • Cap Hit: This is the amount of money that the player counts towards the salary cap. It does not necessarily equate to the actual salary that a player would make in the given year. Rather, it is a combination of salary and bonuses. For many players, they get up-front signing bonuses that are spread out over the life of a contract. So for the majority of players, especially veteran players, their cap hit can be significantly larger than the actual salary they stand to earn for that season. The cap hits, when added together, give us the total figure for how much a team exceeds or falls below the salary cap.

  • Cap savings: This is the amount of money that a team would save against the cap if a player is cut. Frequently, the cap savings are a lesser amount than the cap hit. This is because of “dead money” (see below). Cap savings are typically expressed in terms of post-June 1 cuts, as cuts after that date end up saving teams the most money, as they can spread out the dead money over multiple years.

  • Dead money: This is the amount of money that a player will count against the salary cap even if he is cut. Most often this is due to signing bonuses that were prorated, for cap purposes, over the life of a player’s contract. So, for example, if Terrell Owens signs a 4-year contract with a $20M signing bonus, his team can spread out the cap hit of the bonus over the life of that deal - let’s say $5M a year - and if he’s cut in year 4, the team can have cap savings in the amount of the released player’s salary, but still have a dead money hit in the amount of $5M (the remainder of the signing bonus that was already paid, but not allocated to the cap in a prior year). That $5M dead money will count against the cap, regardless of whether the player was cut. A team can also have a dead money hit from trading a player. Furthermore, teams are not required to evenly spread the cap hit for bonuses over the life of a deal. Some teams like to front-load contracts so that the dead money hits occur early in the contract. Other teams prefer to push their dead money hits toward the back of the deal, always kicking the can down the road.

  • Guaranteed Money: This is the amount of money that a player is guaranteed to make, regardless of whether he is cut. Most NFL veterans’ contracts guarantee money for only the first two years, which is why you see so few guys getting cut in the first or second year of a contract. Owners don’t like to pay players who aren’t playing for them. But in the third year, when there’s no guaranteed money, it’s a whole lot easier to cut them, as there is not additional cash coming out of the owner’s pocket. There is no guaranteed money owed to the players discussed in this article, unless otherwise noted.

Below, we will go through each team in the AFC. We start by setting forth each team’s salary cap situation. We then list some key players who have large cap hits, their age as of September 1, how much dead money the team carries regardless of whether the player remains on the team, and how much money the team can save against the cap if the player is designated a post-June 1 cut. Also, we have included the player’s grade from Pro Football Focus, so that you can make an assessment of whether you feel the player is likely to be cut given his recent level of performance.

POTENTIAL AFC CAP CUTS

Buffalo Bills - $40M over the cap

Mitch Morse, Center (32 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3M

  2. Cap Savings: $8.5M

  3. PFF Grade: 64.1

Connor McGovern, Guard (26 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2M

  2. Cap Savings: $5.9M

  3. PFF Grade: 48.5

Jordan Poyer, Safety (33 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2M

  2. Cap Savings: $5.7M

  3. PFF Grade: 73.0

Deonte Harty, Wide Receiver (26 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $1.6M

  2. Cap Savings: $4M

  3. PFF Grade: 66.9

Stefon Diggs, Wide Receiver (30 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $8.8M

  2. Cap Savings: $19M

  3. PFF Grade: 81.1

Diggs is unlikely to be cut, but given how poorly he played down the stretch, his high cap number, and their dire cap situation, it’s at least got to be a remote possibility.

Miami Dolphins - $29M over the cap

Xavien Howard, Cornerback (31 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $7.4M

  2. Cap Savings: $18.5M

  3. PFF Grade: 55.1M

He’s as good as gone.

Emmanuel Ogbah, Defensive End (30 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2M

  2. Cap Savings: $15.7M

  3. PFF Grade: 57.2

Bye, Felicia.

Jerome Baker, Linebacker (27 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3.7M

  2. Cap Savings: $11M

  3. PFF Grade: 66.6

New England Patriots - $78M under the cap

J.C. Jackson, Cornerback (28 years old)

  1. Dead Money: None

  2. Cap Savings: $14.4M

  3. PFF Grade: 34.8

This should be an easy, easy cut.

Davon Godchaux, Defensive Tackle (29 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3.5M

  2. Cap Savings: $8.3M

  3. PFF Grade: 50.2

New York Jets - $12M under the cap

Laken Tomlinson, Guard (33 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $5.9M

  2. Cap Savings: $13M

  3. PFF Grade: 55.0

John Franklin-Myers, Defensive End (27 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2.5M

  2. Cap Savings: $13.9M

  3. PFF Grade: 70.4

C.J. Uzomah, Tight End (31 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3.2M

  2. Cap Savings: $8M

  3. PFF Grade: 66.4

Tyler Conklin, Tight End (29 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2.34M

  2. Cap Savings: $7M

  3. Guarantees: $250K

  4. PFF Grade: 65.6

Feels like one of Conklin or Uzomah is a lock to be cut. Conklin may have a better shot at sticking around because he’s younger and because he still has guarantees on his contract, however minimal.

Baltimore Ravens - $17M under the cap

Tyus Bowser, Linebacker (29 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2M

  2. Cap Savings: $5.5M

  3. PFF Grade: n/a

Morgan Moses, Offensive Tackle (33 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $1.46M

  2. Cap Savings: $5.5M

  3. PFF Grade: 77.6

Cincinnati Bengals - $51M under the cap (after tagging Tee Higgins)

B.J. Hill, Defensive Tackle (28 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3.34M

  2. Cap Savings: $7.5M

  3. PFF Grade: 67.7

Joe Mixon, Running Back (28 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2.75M

  2. Cap Savings: $5.75M

  3. PFF Grade: 71.1

Nick Scott, Safety (29 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2M

  2. Cap Savings: $2.3M

  3. PFF Grade: 41.6

I’ve never seen a starting safety play so poorly in all my years as a Bengal fan. He’s not making much, but they can’t justifiably bring him back, even as a reserve.

Cleveland Browns - $8M over the cap

Nick Chubb, Running Back (28 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $4M

  2. Cap Savings: $11.8M

  3. PFF Grade: 81.6

They’re saying they’re keeping him, but he’s coming off a serious knee injury. They’re better off cutting him and pocketing the savings to get under the cap.

Joel Bitonio, Guard (32 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3.6M

  2. Cap Savings: $8.5M

  3. PFF Grade: 68.0

It was a subpar season for Bitonio, but he’s probably safe because they don’t need to cut him, and he’s still got $2.4M in guarantees coming his way this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers - $9M over the cap

Allen Robinson, Wide Receiver (31 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $1.9M

  2. Cap Savings: $10M

  3. PFF Grade: 52.0

I don’t know that there’s ever been an easier cut in the history of cuts. The last time Robinson was a useful player was back when the world was shut down due to COVID in 2020.

Chuks Okorafor, Offensive Tackle (27 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3M

  2. Cap Savings: $8.75M

  3. PFF Grade: 60.4

Patrick Peterson, Cornerback (34 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2.9M

  2. Cap Savings: $6.85M

  3. PFF Grade: 60.5

James Daniels, Guard (26 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2.9M

  2. Cap Savings: $8.25M

  3. PFF Grade: 62.0

Larry Ogunjobi, Defensive Tackle/End (30 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3.5M

  2. Cap Savings: $9.75M

  3. PFF Grade: 59.2

Houston Texans - $67M under the cap

Robert Woods, Wide Receiver (32 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $4.75M

  2. Cap Savings: $5M

  3. PFF Grade: 61.3

Indianapolis Colts - $72M under the cap

Mo Alie-Cox, Tight End (30 years old)

  1. Dead Money: None

  2. Cap Savings: $5.92M

  3. PFF Grade: 61.4

With no dead money and a poor grade, he’s a somewhat easy cut, but there’s not a surefire replacement waiting in the wings.

Jacksonville Jaguars - $24M under the cap

Brandon Scherff, Guard (32 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $7.5M

  2. Cap Savings: $16.5M

  3. PFF Grade: 67.3

Cam Robinson, Offensive Tackle (28 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3.9M

  2. Cap Savings: $17.3M

  3. PFF Grade: 65.4

Rayshawn Jenkins, Safety (30 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3.3M

  2. Cap Savings: $9.3M

  3. PFF Grade: 60.9

Zay Jones, Wide Receiver (29 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3M

  2. Cap Savings: $7.7M

  3. PFF Grade: 61.2

Tennessee Titans - $78.5M under the cap

Amani Hooker, Safety (26 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2.5M

  2. Cap Savings: $6.8M

  3. PFF Grade: 67.5

Denver Broncos - $16.8M over the cap

Justin Simmons, Safety (30 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3.75M

  2. Cap Savings: $14.5M

  3. PFF Grade: 67.9

Tim Patrick, Wide Receiver (30 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $6M

  2. Cap Savings: $9.5M

  3. PFF Grade: n/a (injured)

D.J. Jones, Defensive Tackle (29 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3M

  2. Cap Savings: $10M

  3. PFF Grade: 56.2

Note: It is also possible that QB Russell Wilson will be cut, but this would presumably be more due to the fractured relationship between team and player than it is to cap ramifications. Cutting Wilson would not result in any cap savings to the Broncos, and he would carry a $35M dead money hit. Additionally, he still has $17M in guarantees this season. Under those parameters, a trade of Wilson for a late pick seems more likely. The acquiring team could be on the hook for the guaranteed salary, while the Broncos would absorb the cap ramifications. (At least, I think that’s how it works.)

Kansas City Chiefs - $17M under the cap

Justin Reid, Safety (27 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $3.5M

  2. Cap Savings: $10.75M

  3. PFF Grade: 58.5

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Wide Receiver (29 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $2M

  2. Cap Savings: $12M

  3. PFF Grade: 50.4

Easily replaceable at a fraction of the cost.

Las Vegas Raiders - $43M under the cap

Jimmy Garoppolo, Quarterback (32 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $4.27M

  2. Cap Savings: $24M

  3. PFF Grade: 65.0

All of Jimmy G’s guarantees voided as a result of his PED suspension.

Hunter Renfrow, Wide Receiver (28 years old)

  1. Dead Money: $1.8M

  2. Cap Savings: $11.9M

  3. PFF Grade: 48.6

Los Angeles Chargers - $26M over the cap

LA has no obvious cut candidates, but they do have several guys who count more than $32M each against the cap: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Justin Herbert. It’s hard to see any of them getting cut, but stranger things have happened, and the economic reality of the situation may force the Chargers’ hand.

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