2022 Post-Draft Thoughts: Round 1
These are my draft notes. This has been one of the site’s more popular pieces over the last few years, and has become an annual tradition. These notes should provide context for the 2022 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We’ll start with Round 1.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
Leading up to the draft, the big debate was Aidan Hutchinson vs. Travon Walker. Hutchinson was the betting favorite up until a couple days before the draft. Hutchinson had better production, but Walker has more elite traits. Traits won out. I have serious concerns about Walker given his spotty pass rush win rate. Although he has a high ceiling, I can also see him becoming “just a guy” in the NFL.
2. Detroit Lions - Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
Hutchinson, a Michigan Wolverine, is sure to play well to the Detroit faithful. He was wildly productive for the Wolverines, with 14 sacks in his final season. He also had a 6.73 3-cone drill at the combine, and anything below 6.9 typically correlates with high sack production. He’s the sort of hard-working “glass eater” that Dan Campbell has been looking for to lead his defense.
3. Houston Texans - Derek Stingley, Jr. DB, LSU
This can likely be considered the first surprise of the night. The chalk here was an offensive tackle, with an outside chance of UC’s Sauce Gardner. Stingley is certainly a surprise, although Lovie Smith did say leading up to the draft that they had to get better at stopping the pass. On my board, I had Sauce Gardner higher, and my belief is that in hindsight, the Texans will regret passing on Sauce for Stingley.
4. New York Jets - Sauce Gardner, DB, Cincinnati
Pre-draft, the conventional wisdom was that the Jets would take a defensive end, an offensive tackle like Ickey Ekwonu or Evan Neal, or Sauce Gardner. Gardner winds up being the pick, which is somewhat of a surprise. Not because of his talent - he didn’t give up a touchdown this past season and didn’t give up a reception of 20 yards or more - but because of the background of his head coach, Robert Saleh, and his General Manager, Joe Douglas. Saleh came from the 49ers, who built their defenses with strong defensive lines and did not expend significant draft capital on corners. Joe Douglas came from Philadelphia, whose longtime GM, Howie Roseman, has an aversion to spending first round picks on cornerbacks. Both Douglas and Saleh broke from their backgrounds to draft the guy whom I consider to be the best defensive player in this draft.
5. New York Giants - Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
Now this pick was a shock. Thibodeaux was considered the likely #1 overall pick when the season started, but his stock tumbled when people questioned his football passion. During the interview circuit, his personality turned off a lot of teams. Apparently none of that mattered to Big Blue. The conventional wisdom had the Giants taking an offensive tackle here, but they still had the chance to do that with their pick at #7.
6. Carolina Panthers - Ickey Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Carolina sorely needed a left tackle, and they desperately needed to hit on this pick. They’ve started a different left tackle every year since Jordan Gross retired almost a decade ago. The Panthers had only one pick in the first three rounds of this draft, despite having one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Things broke in about the best possible way for Carolina, as they came away with the nastiest run blocker in the draft. Maybe if they keep Sam Darnold upright he’ll actually have a chance this year.
7. New York Giants (from CHI) - Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
New York was expected to take one of the top offensive tackles with one of their first round picks, so this really isn’t a surprise here. Neal fills a need, has experience at several spots across the offensive line, and should slot in as their right tackle from Day 1.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Drake London, WR, USC
Love me some Drake London. Atlanta had so many needs, they could have really gone in any direction and it would have been a good pick. They probably have the most bare WR depth chart in the NFL following Russell Gage’s defection to Tampa Bay and Calvin Ridley’s suspension, so it is perfectly sensible for them to take a reliable target for whomever winds up under center for them in 2022. London was my favorite WR in the 2022 class - he had an elite breakout age (18.1) - and I feel this should be a really solid foundational piece for Atlanta for years to come. Hindsight will tell whether they should have grabbed a quarterback here. Free agent signee Marcus Mariota sits atop the depth chart, and he feels more like a placeholder than a long-term solution.
9. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) - Charles Cross, OT, Miss. St.
This was a really smart pick for Seattle. Cross is the best pure pass blocker in the class, and they had a gaping hole at left tackle. This is a savvy, long-term pick, and models what John Schneider and Pete Carroll did in Seattle when they first took over and selected LT Russell Okung.
10. New York Jets (from SEA) - Garrett Wilson, WR, OSU
This pick is questionable. The Jets had two top ten selections and didn’t spend either of them on offensive or defensive linemen in a draft noted for both. I just am not sold on Wilson. He’s too slight, and he doesn’t play as fast as his timed speed. He never led Ohio State in receiving in any of his three years there. My pick here would have been DE Jermaine Johnson or, if they insisted on a wideout, Alabama’s Jameson Williams.
11. New Orleans Saints (from WAS) - Chris Olave, WR, OSU
Wow. Just… wow. New Orleans gave up so much draft capital to make this pick: first their 2023 1st and their 2024 2nd to get 16 from Philadelphia, and then they gave that pick plus 3rd and 4th round picks to move up and get Olave. This dude better turn out to be a Hall of Famer, because otherwise these moves are going to set this franchise back for years. I like Olave a lot, but he projects as a #2 receiver with speed, but one who lacks RAC ability. Mickey Loomis is living up to his riverboat gambler reputation with these moves.
12. Detroit Lions (from MIN) - Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Detroit gave up a ton of draft capital to move up from 32 to draft Jameson Williams, who is rehabbing from a torn ACL. I love Williams - he was the #2 receiver on my board - but it’s almost always a mistake to trade up for any non-QB position. Hopefully they have a plan in place, because Williams’ skill set is wasted with Jared Goff’s popgun arm. Also… did anyone else notice he didn’t look too happy to be drafted? He should have immediate opportunity to earn snaps for Detroit as soon as he is healthy, as there isn’t much standing in front of him on the depth chart aside from Amon-Ra St. Brown, the slot receiver, and DJ Chark, who was signed to a one-year deal in free agency.
13. Philadelphia Eagles (from CLE via HOU) - Jordan Davis, DT, UGA
Philadelphia traded up for this pick, and that was really smart with Baltimore up next. Jordan Davis is the sort of huge athlete that the Ravens have historically loved to stock along their defensive line. With Fletcher Cox getting long in the tooth, it was wise for Philly to get his successor here. Howie Roseman is known for building in the trenches with his first round picks, and this year was no different.
14. Baltimore Ravens - Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Ugh. I hate this. I said some bad words at my house when this pick was made. I love - LOVE - Notre Dame, I love Kyle Hamilton, and I loathe the Ravens. It feels like they do this every year: snag one of the top prospects on defense who falls in the draft for unknown reasons. A good D just gets better with the addition of the guy who is perhaps the best player in this draft. This is such a good landing spot for him, and as a lifelong Bengals fan, it just makes me sick.
15. Houston Texans (from MIA via PHI) - Kenyon Green, OG, TAMU
Wow. I feel so bad for Houston fans. They felt it couldn’t get any worse after Bill O’Brien, and now this. They’ve really botched this draft. Green has a terrible athletic profile, and in my humble opinion is the most likely first round pick to bust. If they wanted a guard, they should have taken Zion Johnson. But wow. With two top 15 picks, they come away with a corner who has been hurt the last few years and a guard who struggles to move laterally. Brutal. There’s a reason bad teams stay bad.
16. Washington Commanders (from IND via PHI and NO) - Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Reaaaaaaaaach! I’m not impressed with this pick. At all. Washington had a need at wideout, but missed out on the run of the top receivers. Seems like they reached rather than seeking out proper value. I had Dotson with a 2nd/3rd round grade, as I’m very concerned about his diminutive size at 178 pounds. He also has the 2nd-worst 3-cone time of any 1,000 yard receiver in the past ten years. Lots of concerns about this kid. They could have traded back to the end of the round and still gotten him, and that would have still been too early for him.
17. Los Angeles Chargers - Zion Johnson, LG, Boston College
This is a tremendous pick for one of my favorite players in the draft. The Chargers have long struggled to build a competent offensive line, and after their first round selection of LT Rashawn Slater last year, this is another step in the right direction. The Chargers typically are patient in the draft and have an elite prospect fall into their laps. This year was no different, and they snagged the best guard in the draft to protect their young franchise QB. Note, though, that they still have a gaping hole at right tackle.
18. Tennessee Titans (from NO via PHI) - Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The Titans traded A.J. Brown to Philadelphia to get this pick, and they turned it into the big, physical Treylon Burks. (You’d have to think Green Bay and Kansas City were panicking with these wide receivers flying off the board.) I had Burks as my third wideout in this class, so this is great value for the Titans here. The Titans have a wide open depth chart, with the only legitimate WR of note being Robert Woods, whom they acquired via trade in the offseason and is rehabbing a torn ACL. Burks is going to have opportunity early and often. As an aside, though, it’s curious that they couldn’t work out an extension with AJ Brown. He wanted $22 million per year; they only offered $20M, which seems like a lowball offer considering Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill just got $30M per year contracts this offseason. As soon as he landed with Philly, Brown received a contract for $25M per year.
19. New Orleans Saints (from PHI) - Trevor Penning, LT, Northern Iowa
Brilliant pick for the Saints. The biggest hole on their team was at left tackle after the departure of Terron Armstead, and they got the last of the top blindside protectors. They’ve plugged their two biggest holes with their two first round picks.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers - Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
I couldn’t stop giggling at this pick. Pickett is familiar with playing at Heinz Field, sure, but his small carnie hands were responsible for 38 (!) fumbles in college. And he was second in the FBS with 3.2 seconds per dropback in 2021; he’s not going to have that same kind of time behind Pittsburgh’s swiss-cheese offensive line. As a Bengals fan, I love the Steelers taking a guy whose ceiling is likely Andy Dalton or Derek Carr. This is the sort of pick that should have the Stillers mired in mediocrity for years.
21. Kansas City Chiefs (from NE) - Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Kansas City desperately needed cornerback help, so it made sense for them to trade up with New England and get the last of the “Big 3” corners in this draft. I’m still wary of McDuffie’s stubby arms, though. It’s tough for corners with sub-30” arms to make it in the NFL.
22. Green Bay Packers (from LV) - Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
This is a good pick. It’s a low-key position of need. Although most fans probably wanted them to take a wideout, most of the top wide receivers were off the board by the time the Packers were on the clock. This is a case of sticking to your board and getting good value.
23. Buffalo Bills (from ARZ via BAL) - Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Buffalo’s biggest need was at corner, so the chalk was that they were targeting Elam or Clemson’s Andrew Booth here. This is good value at a position of need. Brandon Beane, yet again, drafts wisely.
24. Dallas Cowboys - Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
This is a bit of a reach for a project player. Smith is probably the best offensive tackle remaining, but he’s really raw. Dallas needs a starter at RT on Day 1. Only time will tell if they made the right call. They desperately needed an upgrade for their offensive line after jettisoning RT La’El Collins during the off-season. Their ill-advised Ezekiel Elliott contract is forcing them into bad decisions, as they’ve had to get rid of good players at more important positions, and then seek to fill those positions through the draft.
25. Baltimore Ravens (from BUF) - Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
Really smart pick for a really smart organization. He’s the best center in college football and probably a top-12 talent in this draft. When good players fall to Baltimore, they are always ready to pounce.
26. New York Jets (from TEN) - Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State
Brilliant pick. There were rumors pre-draft that the Jets liked him at #10, so to get him at 26 has to feel like a steal. Jermaine Johnson was the talk of Senior Bowl week, and he should carry over his stellar production to the NFL. He seems like a lunchpail sort of guy, and he’s going to bring a workmanlike attitude to that defense. That type of thing is usually contagious.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars (from TB) - Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Jacksonville trades up to get the guy who most assumed was the top linebacker in this draft class. I question trading up for a linebacker in today’s NFL, but at least they did it for the perceived top guy. Jacksonville is remaking their defense with this draft.
28. Green Bay Packers - Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
This is fair value for Wyatt, but you just have to wonder who is going to catch passes for Aaron Rodgers this season. At this point, the Packers’ brass seem to be refusing to draft pass catchers early out of spite.
29. New England Patriots (from SF via MIA and KC) - Cole Strange, iOL, Chattanooga
I had Strange as more of a second round pick, but close enough. But I don’t understand why the Pats would jettison Shaq Mason to Tampa for a 5th round pick just to turn around and draft his replacement with a 1st rounder. It’s a strange approach to team-building . . . no pun intended.
30. Kansas City Chiefs - George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
And the Bengals get sniped. According to radio color commentator Dave Lapham, Karlaftis was the top player on the Bengals’ board. He goes one pick ahead to the second-best team in the AFC, and fills a huge need for them at defensive end. This is good value at this point in the draft, especially with Frank Clark’s contract up next year.
31. Cincinnati Bengals - Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan
This is a perplexing pick. As a Bengals fan, I really don’t like it. The Bengals need the most help at outside corner. Hill is more of a safety with the ability to play nickel corner, but not on the outside. They already have Mike Hilton at nickel, and they have Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell at safety. This pick likely tells you that they’re done negotiating with Jessie Bates, and that he’ll be playing elsewhere when his contract expires after this season. Assuming good health for the top guys on the depth chart, Hill likely does not make a meaningful impact in year one. This is a long-term pick for the franchise.
32. Minnesota Vikings (from LAR via DET) - Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
Minnesota takes the player Cincinnati should have taken. Great pick, and a really solid player for the back end of their defense. Minnesota’s biggest need is at outside corner, but they pick again at 34 and will have their choice of the top remaining cornerbacks there.