2021 Post-Draft Thoughts: Day 3

This is a continuation of my draft notes. These notes provide context for the 2021 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making these picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. Here are the notes for some of the Day 3 picks. For these rounds, I focused on players who were highly regarded entering the draft and fell, or players who may have an opportunity to become fantasy contributors:

Round 4, Pick 2 (107 overall). New York Jets - Michael Carter, RB, UNC. Carter was viewed as the best pass-catching back in this class and was widely regarded by the draftnik community as a second round talent. This is a great landing spot, as the depth chart for the Jets consists of washed up veterans (Tevin Coleman) and unproven commodities (La’Mical Perine). Carter, who is viewed as a Giovani Bernard clone but with better twitch, has the opportunity to contribute immediately on passing downs with the potential to grow his role into something more. It’s unclear whether he can carry a full load, as he split carries at North Carolina with Javonte Williams.

Round 4, Pick 4 (109 overall). Tennessee Titans - Dez Fitzpatrick, RB, Louisville. This was a curious selection. Fitzpatrick didn’t have great production in college, but had a really good Senior Bowl game. He is probably best viewed as a WR3/4 at the NFL level. After losing Corey Davis in free agency, the Titans did nothing to address the position aside from signing Rams’ rotational wideout Josh Reynolds. It will be interesting to see whether they view Fitzpatrick as a potential challenger to Reynolds, or if they just need him to round out their depth chart. I was very surprised they did not attack this position earlier in the draft.

Round 4, Pick 7 (112 overall). Detroit Lions - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC. I am really excited about this pick. This is a great landing spot for St. Brown. He probably slipped in the draft a little bit because his testing numbers weren’t elite and he was never the leading receiver on his own team. However, he has a great pedigree (former five-star recruit) and had an early breakout age (18.9), which has a high correlation with NFL success. (Any breakout age under 19 gets my attention, and the only wide receivers in this class who met that benchmark were St. Brown, Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, and Tutu Atwell.) St. Brown walks into a great situation in Detroit, as there isn’t much talent ahead of him on the depth chart. Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams are slated to be the outside receivers, and neither of them have proven to be high-volume guys over the course of their careers. St. Brown likely projects as the starting slot receiver, and he should be peppered with targets by new Lions QB Jared Goff, who has a history of making his slot wide receiver productive (Hello, Cooper Kupp!). In fantasy, we’re always looking for bargains who are productive, and St. Brown could fit that bill. It really wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him lead the team in catches and targets in 2021, if he can stay healthy.

Round 4, Pick 14 (119 overall). Minnesota Vikings - Kene Nwangwu, RB, Iowa State. This was a bit of a reach. Nwangwu has elite return skills, but does not profile as a regular contributor outside of special teams. Those types of guys are typically drafted in Rounds 6-7, not Round 4. It’s hard to see him getting regular touches behind Dalvin Cook and Alex Mattison. But if he ends up being Devin Hester or Dante Hall, no one will care that he was drafted in Round 4 instead of Round 6.

Round 4, Pick 15 (120 overall). New England Patriots - Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma. It remains to be seen whether the Patriots will convert Stevenson to fullback or if they will have him challenge Sony Michel and Damien Harris for power-back duties. But any time New England takes a running back in the middle rounds of the draft, it’s worth taking note. They have a penchant for taking backs in Rounds 3-5 and making them productive, fantasy-relevant players. Examples include Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, James White, and Damien Harris. Stevenson is flying a bit under the radar right now, especially in dynasty leagues, but he’s worth a third round pick in the dynasty format.

Round 4, Pick 21 (126 overall). Carolina Panthers - Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State. I guess Carolina is worried about the health of Christian McCaffrey, as this pick screamed “need” over “value.” Hubbard had a great 2019 and a meh 2020. Plus, he’s a rabble-rouser and isn’t worth the trouble. This is a guy who threatened to sit out the 2020 season because a photograph surfaced online of his head coach wearing a One America News Network t-shirt. Get a grip, snowflake - people in this world are going to disagree with your opinions. This guy strikes me as entitled and as a locker room problem. Good luck, Carolina.

Round 4, Pick 24 (129 overall). Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jaelon Darden, WR, North Texas. With undersized guys from smaller schools, I need to see really elite testing numbers and an early breakout age to be interested. Darden had neither. He’s 5’8, 178 pounds, and ran just a 4.59 forty yard dash. He didn’t break out until he was 20.6 years old. I understand that he had elite production, but with that athletic profile and considering the conference he played in, I’m just not all that bullish on Darden.

Round 4, Pick 25 (130 overall). Los Angeles Rams - Robert Rochell, CB, Central Arkansas. Not a fantasy-relevant player, but just bringing him up because I think the Rams got a steal. I had Rochell evaluated as a second-round talent due to his athletic profile and measurables. The two things I like to see in corners are arm length and 40 time, and Rochell checked both boxes with 32.5” arms and a 4.39 forty yard dash. Anything arm measurement above 32 inches and any 40 time below 4.4 gets my attention.

Round 4, Pick 26 (131 overall). Baltimore Ravens - Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State. The Ravens draft well, year in and year out. This is a value selection, as they already hammered their WR “need” in Round 1 with the selection of Rashod Bateman. I viewed Wallace as a WR2 in the NFL, but he’s going to have a tough time seeing the field, at least in 2021, due to the suddenly crowded wide receiver room in Baltimore: Hollywood Brown, Rashod Bateman, Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay, Miles Boykin, and James Proche.

Round 4, Pick 28 (133 overall). New Orleans Saints - Ian Book, QB, Notre Dame. I’m a huge Notre Dame fan, and I’ve seen just about every snap Ian Book has ever played. Despite being second in most of Notre Dame’s passing records (behind only Brady Quinn), the dude is just a very average player. He has significant athletic limitations, and his mobility, which was somewhat of an asset in college, should be negated by NFL speed. If he sticks in the NFL, it will have to be as a Chase Daniel-type who holds a clipboard and is valued for his contributions in team meetings rather than his production on the field. He’s not a starting-level talent. I think he was drafted 2-3 rounds too early due to impressing at the Senior Bowl, where he was named the practice player of the week.

Round 4, Pick 30 (135 overall). Tennessee Titans - Rashad Weaver, DE, Pitt. This is a great value pick for Tennessee. Weaver had good production in college and has the size (6’4, 259) needed for the position. He also had a sub-7.0 second three cone drill, which is the drill most commonly associated with pass-rushing success.

Round 4, Pick 37 (142 overall). Green Bay Packers - Royce Newman, G/T, Ole Miss. I give GM Brian Gutekunst a lot of flak, but picks like this are how good teams are built. Newman is an extremely versatile player, having logged over 100 snaps in college at each of LG, RG, and RT. That’s a valuable depth piece for the Pack, who may be able to start for them at any of those positions and also gives them flexibility in the event of an injury to another starter.

Round 5, Pick 5 (149 overall). Cincinnati Bengals - Evan McPherson, K, Florida. A lot of commentators are giving the Bengals flak for selecting McPherson in the 5th round - especially because he was the only kicker drafted - but I give them a lot of credit for this choice. They identified their guy, and they admitted they selected him a round earlier than they thought they needed to because they wanted to make sure they got him. If he plays for them for 10-15 years, no one will fault the pick. Remember, this is the same team that took punter Kevin Huber in Round 5 over a decade ago. How many fifth round picks make it a decade in the league? There’s not a huge opportunity cost here, so if they had him evaluated as their top kicker in the class, I say it’s a good pick.

Round 5, Pick 6 (150 overall). Philadelphia Eagles - Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Memphis. This was a solid selection by Philadelphia. Many draft analysts projected Gainwell as the 4th-best back in this class behind only Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams. Although slightly undersized, he has a three-down skill set. He’s a valuable insurance plan for a team banking on production from Miles Sanders, who just can’t seem to stay healthy. Gainwell should be the latest in a (recently) long line of runners from Memphis who have made noise in the NFL, a list that includes talents like Antonio Gibson, Darrell Henderson, and Tony Pollard.

Round 5, Pick 14 (158 overall). Carolina Panthers - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa. Mentioning him here only because I had a second-round grade on him and had him as my #4 defensive tackle in this class behind only Christian Barmore, Levi Onwuzurike, and Milton Williams. He’s a 3-tech and lands in a good spot in Carolina, where he can play alongside Derrick Brown.

Round 5, Pick 35 (179 overall). Dallas Cowboys - Simi Fehoko, WR, Stanford. He’s 6’3, 222 pounds with 4.43 wheels. In a draft full of undersized guys, Fehoko offers some size, which was attractive at this point in the draft. Dallas has the luxury of bringing him along slowly since Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are all ahead of him on the depth chart, although if he flashes he may be able to take over for Gallup when Dallas inevitably lets him walk in 2022.

Round 6, Pick 3 (187 overall). Atlanta Falcons - Frank Darby, WR, Arizona State. I wasn’t a huge fan of Darby’s, but I’m mentioning him because he may get an opportunity. Rumors are swirling that the Falcons are looking to trade Julio Jones to get out from under his cap hit, so if that’s the case, there will be an opportunity in three-wide sets behind Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. Why not Darby?

Round 6, Pick 10 (194 overall). San Francisco 49ers - Eli Mitchell, RB, Louisiana-Lafayette. Yes, the Niners drafted Trey Sermon in Round 3, so you’d assume he gets first crack at lead-back duties. But this is a Kyle Shanahan-coached team. Just like his daddy, he can produce 1,000 yard rushers out of nothing. Don’t be surprised if Mitchell eventually has some big games for the 49ers.

Round 6, Pick 14 (198 overall). Los Angeles Chargers - Larry Rountree III, RB, Mizzou. I wasn’t terribly impressed with Rountree as a talent, but the Chargers are still seeking that complement alongside Austin Ekeler. Justin Jackson fizzled. Same for Joshua Kelley after an early flash. Could Rountree finally be the guy?

Round 6, Pick 24 (208 overall). Seattle Seahawks - Stone Forsythe, LT, Florida. I love this dude. Draft reports indicated he was the best pass protector in the class but couldn’t run block to save his life. If I had to pick one over the other, I’d choose the pass blocker. It’s too important in today’s NFL. I would not be at all surprised if Forsythe eventually succeeds Duane Brown as Seattle’s blindside protector.

Round 6, Pick 42 (226 overall). Kansas City - Trey Smith, OG, Tennessee. Sometimes the rich get richer. Smith is a former five-star recruit who had a good college career, but he slipped in the NFL draft due to blood clots in his lungs. Assuming he can stay healthy, this is a steal for the Chiefs, as he is a pro-bowl level talent reminiscent of former Eagles and Bengals guard Bobbie Williams. Using one of the final picks of the sixth round on this kind of talent is a wise investment.

Round 7, Pick 17 (244 overall). Miami Dolphins - Gerrid Doaks, RB, CIncinnati. Theoretically, Miami has a wide open depth chart. Doaks has to contend with the likes of Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, and Salvon Ahmed. Miami doesn’t have much invested in any of those guys, so they can just let the best guy play. Doaks has just as much of a chance to emerge as the lead runner as he does of being cut.

Round 7, Pick 29 (256 overall). Green Bay Packers - Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State. Love the player, hate the landing spot. Hill has a three-down skill set and has nearly all of the traits I like to see in running backs. My prototype running back is at least 5’11, at least 215 pounds, runs a 4.5 forty yard dash, and had a 10% target share in college. Hill falls short of all of those measurables, but just barely. He’s 5’10, 214 pounds, and runs a 4.51 forty yard dash. So we’re talking one inch shorter, one pound lighter, and one one-hundreth of a second slower than what we like to see. I’ll take it. His target share didn’t reach 10%, but he was at 7.8%, which shows enough pass-catching chops that I’m interested. It will take an injury for him to see the field - this dude isn’t overtaking the overpaid Aaron Jones - but if Jones misses any time, he’d be a valuable complement to A.J. Dillon.

Round 7, Pick 30 (257 overall). Detroit Lions - Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State. This is another guy who would need an injury to make an impact. He’s certainly not better than D’Andre Swift, but he may be better than free agent signee Jamaal Williams. Detroit is looking to Williams to be its two-down banger, but Jefferson may be better suited to that role - if he makes the team.