2020 Post Draft Thoughts - Round 1
These are my draft notes. This was one of the site’s more popular pieces last year, so we’re making it an annual tradition. These notes should provide context for the 2020 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We’ll start with Round 1.
Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow, QB, LSU. THANK GOODNESS. Everyone in Bengaldom was hoping and praying for this pick. Burrow had the most impressive season ever by a college quarterback, carving up SEC defenses en route to a national title and a Heisman trophy. Scouts say he didn’t have a single bad quarter the entire season. He threw 60 touchdowns. He averaged over 375 yards passing per game. And he completed 76% of his passes. IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE. It was a crazy year. The Miami Dolphins - who essentially tanked the 2019 season - were rumored to have done everything they could to trade up to get Burrow. The rumors that leaked right before the draft suggested they had tried to acquire the #3 pick from the Lions to make a “Godfather offer” of #3, #5, and two first round picks to the Bengals for the rights to #1 to draft Burrow. Bengals owner Mike Brown wasn’t interested. Apparently, the Dolphins efforts were moot, because Brown had a letter delivered to Burrow the day before the draft advising him that he’d be the #1 pick and welcoming him to Cincinnati. It is a good time to be a Bengals fan.
Washington Redskins - Chase Young, DE, Ohio State. This pick wasn’t much of a surprise. The general consensus was that Burrow would go #1 and Young would go #2. There was some chatter that Washington might trade down because it lacked a second round pick, but no one faults them for standing pat and taking the consensus best defensive player in the draft. Young succeeded the Bosa brothers at Ohio State, both of whom were top five NFL draft picks and found immediate NFL success, and the opinion on Young is that he is better than both of them. Washington now boasts a dominant defensive line consisting entirely of first round picks taken in the last four years: Young, DT Jonathan Allen (2017), DT Da’Ron Payne (2018), and DE Montez Sweat (2019). Building the line is probably a sound strategy for a team that has to contend with top NFL running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley in divisional games four times a year. Dallas may have the top offensive line in the NFL, but Washington may now have the top defensive line to oppose it.
Detroit Lions - Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State. Rumors swirled hours before the draft that the Lions front office was torn between two defensive players. After trading cornerback Darius Slay to the Eagles for a second round pick a few weeks ago, GM Bob Quinn felt the team’s best option was Okudah. Matt Patricia, on the other hand, felt that they needed to build in the trenches, and preferred Auburn DT Derrick Brown. As with most power struggles in the NFL, the general manager wins. Okudah was generally regarded as the top corner in the draft and was a consensus top five pick among the draftnik community. In the last several years, Ohio State has become DB U, producing stars like Marshon Lattimore, Denzel Mims, and Malik Hooker, so it’s probably safe to snag the Buckeyes’ top cover man.
New York Giants - Andrew Thomas, LT, Georgia. This was really the first wild card of the draft. Most pundits suspected that GM Dave Gettleman would select one of the top four offensive tackles (Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, Jedrick Wills, and Mekhi Becton), but there wasn’t much consensus on which one. A clue was offered earlier in the day with rumors that the Dolphins were attempting to trade up to No. 3 to select Andrew Thomas. Many prognosticators thought the Giants would lean toward Alabama’s Jedrick Wills, a natural right tackle seen as perhaps the “safest” tackle in the draft, as the Giants have a gaping hole at right tackle. However, selecting Thomas makes sense, either as a 2021 successor to the grossly overpaid Nate Solder, or an immediate 2020 replacement and flipping Solder to the right side. In any event, this was a good pick by the Giants, selecting the battle-tested Georgia product to protect Daniel Jones’ blindside and anchor their offensive line. With Thomas, LG Will Hernandez, and RG Kevin Zeitler, they have the foundations of a respectable offensive line.
Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama. Miami did a wonderful job of creating smokescreens throughout the draft process. Did they want Tua? Did they not want Tua? Did they really want Joe Burrow? Were they going to trade up for Andrew Thomas because they didn’t believe in any of the quarterbacks? Did they prefer Justin Herbert over Tua? At the end of the day, they took the best player. Tua would have been a top 3 pick but for his hip injury. For me, though, the hip injury scares me off, and I would have taken him off my draft board. Quarterbacks that have injury issues in college tend to have injury issues in the pros. This is a boom-or-bust pick for Miami. It’s the selection I think they had to make, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re hunting for a quarterback in the first round again in 4-5 years.
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon. This pick made a ton of sense on paper. The Chargers just let longtime face-of-the-franchise Philip Rivers walk in free agency, and none of us *really* believed that HC Anthony Lynn was going to go into 2020 with no competition for Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is the ideal backup/bridge quarterback. He can win you a few games here and there, but you know you’re not winning a Super Bowl with him starting for you for an entire season. I think Tua would have been a better fit for them, especially given the money they just gave to RT Bryan Bulaga in free agency (remember, since Tua is a lefty, the right tackle protects his blind side), but given what was available Herbert was a good pick. They still need to find a left tackle. They traded Russell Okung a few weeks ago, so it remains to be seen who will line up as Herbert’s blindside protector. I’m a huge Herbert fan, but one of the biggest knocks on him coming out of college is how bad he is when the play breaks down. He’s going to be under constant duress unless Los Angeles makes a bold move for a left tackle.
Carolina Panthers - Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn. This pick makes a ton of sense. Matt Rhule needs to build his own culture in Carolina, and you win by starting with the trenches. After losing Vernon Butler and Gerald McCoy in free agency, there was opportunity for snaps on Carolina’s defensive line. Brown could shine next to perennial Pro Bowler Kawann Short. I do have some concerns about Brown’s game, though. His best asset in college was his strength - but will that translate to the NFL level, where all of the athletes he’s facing are bigger and stronger? He has All Pro potential. But he certainly has some bust potential, too.
Arizona Cardinals - Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson. Give credit to GM Steve Keim for going “Best Player Available.” There were rumors Simmons could have gone as high as number three to the Lions, so getting him at 8 is a steal. Although the Cardinals arguably had greater needs at right tackle and on the defensive line, getting a versatile chess piece like Simmons to improve the defense was too good of a value to pass up. Plus, it’s not like the Cardinals’ linebacking corps has a bunch of world-beaters. This was a really good value selection that should help immediately improve the defense. Some people argued that Simmons will fail because he’s a “tweener” - a guy who is not really a linebacker and not really a safety. I don’t agree with that assessment at all. Versatility and the ability to play multiple spots doesn’t make someone a “tweener.” I see Simmons as primarily an outside linebacker who also has the ability to play nickel back or in-the-box third safety should the defensive alignment call for an adjustment. That’s a useful piece for any defensive coordinator.
Jacksonville Jaguars - CJ Henderson, CB, Florida. Boom or bust right here. Henderson was widely regarded as one of the top two corners in the draft - several evaluators even had him higher than Jeff Okudah - but there are major red flags when your primary NFL comparison is Justin Gilbert, the No. 8 overall bust by the Cleveland Browns a few years back. Like Gilbert, the primary criticism on Henderson is that he doesn’t tackle. Athletically, he’s everything you want in a corner, and he had an outstanding combine. But there are serious questions about whether his game will translate to the NFL. In terms of team need, it’s a great selection by the rebuilding Jaguars, who traded Jalen Ramsey mid-season to the Rams and traded A.J. Bouye to the Broncos during the offseason.
Cleveland Browns - Jedrick Wills, RT, Alabama. Love the player, hate the fit. Cleveland just spent big dollars to lure RT Jack Conklin from the Tennessee Titans. Selecting Wills here suggests that he’s going to be Cleveland’s left tackle - but Wills hasn’t played left tackle since high school. Every single game he played for the Crimson Tide came at right tackle. There are many scouts - including Cleveland’s, apparently - who believe that he CAN transition to the left side. But I think the best way to make guys successful in the NFL is to determine what he did well in college, and ask him to do that same thing in the NFL. Wills was a good right tackle in college. He likely would have been a good right tackle in the NFL. It remains to be seen whether he’s a good left tackle.
New York Jets - Mekhi Becton, LT, Louisville. Love this pick. Becton is a mammoth human being, and New York hasn’t had a quality blindside protector since D’Brickashaw Ferguson roamed the Meadowlands. No one is happier about this pick than Sam Darnold. He might actually get time to throw the ball. If only he had someone to throw to …
Las Vegas Raiders - Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama. It’s like Al Davis is still running the Raiders’ draft room, prioritizing speed above all else. I’m not a Henry Ruggs guy, as I see him as more John Ross/Darrius Heyward-Bey/Ashley Lelie than DeSean Jackson/Will Fuller/Santana Moss. But, to each his own. Drafting a deep threat when you have a quarterback who likes to throw short routes and checkdowns doesn’t seem to be the best use of resources, especially when the only other viable wide receiver you have (Tyrell Williams) also is primarily a deep-speed guy. It seems like Ruggs’ Alabama teammate, Jerry Jeudy, would have been a much better fit. And if they really wanted a deep threat, CeeDee Lamb is a better overall player. All in all, this was a real head-scratcher considering the other wide receivers still on the board.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (f/SF) - Tristan Wirfs, LT, Iowa. Tampa Bay gives up a fourth round pick to move up one spot to select a lineman to protect Tom Brady. One of the worst-kept secrets leading up to the draft was that the Bucs were going to do whatever they had to do to get another offensive lineman. These guys are in “win-now” mode with an aging TB12, so it was no surprise that they traded up a bit to ensure that they got the last of the “big 4” o-linemen. My personal ranking of the top 4 linemen was Wills, Thomas, Becton, Wirfs, so it really was not a shocker that Wirfs was the last of the Big 4 available despite a stellar combine.
San Francisco 49ers (f/TB) - Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina. One of my favorite players in the draft. This dude reminds me of former Jags standout John Henderson. In my view, Kinlaw is better than Derrick Brown, and is more likely to have NFL success. He was viewed by scouts as the most dominant player during Senior Bowl week. This is a fantastic get for San Francisco. They traded Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the Colts for this pick, as Buckner was due for a big extension and San Fran couldn’t afford to pay all the stars on their defensive line. So in essence, they flip Buckner for his younger, cheaper replacement, keeping the defensive line as the strength of their team with Nick Bosa, Arik Armstrong, Dee Ford, and Kinlaw. Savvy, savvy move by John Lynch.
Denver Broncos - Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama. Wow. There was chatter that the Broncos might trade up to get their preferred receiver, but instead he falls right into their laps. Jeudy reminds me a lot of Colts Hall of Fame wide receiver Marvin Harrison. Smaller build, savvy route runner, just keeps his head down and does his job. He’s a great complement to what the Broncos have on the other side in Courtland Sutton. GM John Elway has done a great job putting pieces around Drew Lock to help him succeed: Sutton, Jeudy, last year’s first round pick Noah Fant, and free agent signee Melvin Gordon. Denver could be fun to watch this year as long as the protection holds up. I’m just still not sold on left tackle Garret Bolles.
Atlanta Falcons - AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson. This felt like the point in the draft where there was a serious talent dropoff between the top prospects and the guys who could have just as easily been second round picks (with the exception of the Cowboys’ pick below). Rumors before the draft were that the Falcons wanted to trade up for Jeff Okudah or CJ Henderson, and given their ultimate selection of Terrell, I believe the rumors. The cupboard is pretty bare at corner for the Falcons, but Terrell likely projects best as a number 2 corner in the NFL. He has some decent college tape, but he got absolutely roasted by LSU’s JaMarr Chase for 3 touchdowns in the national title game. Sure, Chase was the best WR in the country - but that’s the sort of athlete he’s going to go up against when he faces intradivisional competition like Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, New Orleans’ Michael Thomas, and Carolina’s DJ Moore. To be clear, I do think Terrell will be a decent pro, but I don’t think he’ll be a number 1 corner, and he’ll struggle to contain those guys. Then again, that seems to be par for the course for the Falcons defense. GM Thomas Dimitroff and HC Dan Quinn needed a great player here to save their jobs, and I don’t think they got one. I think they hit a single.
Dallas Cowboys - CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma. For the first time in the last several years, Jerry Jones - not his son Stephen - was back at the helm for the draft. And it showed. Jerry always likes making the splash, even if the splash doesn’t necessarily improve his football team. Look, I love CeeDee Lamb. I think he’s a great player, one of the top two receivers in this draft. But what good is CeeDee Lamb on a team that already has Michael Gallup and 100-million-dollar-man Amari Cooper? To put it in perspective, only 20 receivers in the NFL had 1100 yards last year, and two of them were on the Cowboys (Gallup and Cooper). There are only so many balls to go around. And with Dallas’ needs on defense - primarily at corner and on the defensive line - could they really afford this luxury pick? I’m all for taking the best player available. But how are they going to slow down opposing offenses? I really don’t think Stephen Jones would have made this pick, and I think it could bite them in the rear in the short term. Long term, it may wind up being brilliant.
Miami Dolphins - Austin Jackson, LT, USC. Barf. If I’m a Miami fan, I’m feeling uneasy about this draft. They take a QB with serious injury concerns at #5, and an offensive tackle with bad tape, lack of strength, and technique issues at #18. Jackson is one of my least favorite players in the draft, and was a reach in Round 1, especially with Houston’s Josh Jones still on the board. I understand that Miami’s offensive line is horrid and agree that a lineman made the most sense here. But remember: Tua is a LEFT-handed quarterback, meaning the most important protection for him is the RIGHT side, not the LEFT side. They have yet to address who their right tackle is going to be. Do you really want a quarterback with injury issues getting pummeled behind a bad offensive line?
Las Vegas Raiders - Damon Arnette, CB, Ohio State. I really question whether Mike Mayock knows what he’s doing. This is far and away the worst pick of the draft. How is it a good idea to make a college team’s #2 corner your first round pick? Most scouting services had Damon Arnette pegged as a third round talent, and a late round 2 pick at best. The Raiders seem to love drafting number 2 corners from Ohio State. This feels like Gareon Conley all over again. Except Arnette isn’t as good as Conley . . . and Conley wasn’t all that good. He didn’t even make it through his rookie deal with the team. This, to me, feels like the draft that will end up costing Mike Mayock his job. He has no feel for “draft value” at all. Last year, he overdrafted Clelin Ferrell at #4 because he was “his guy” - apparently failing to understand that he could have traded back, added picks, and still gotten the same player. Then he used his second first round pick last year to snag Josh Jacobs, even though anyone with a bit of sense knows that running backs are replaceable and are a terrible investment in Round 1 when you can get other premium positions. And then he spent his final first round pick last year on a box safety who can’t cover - a dinosaur in today’s NFL. He followed that up in 2020 by drafting a wide receiver with a skill set duplicative of what he already has in Tyrell Williams, while eschewing more talented players at the same position; and then overdrafting a number 2 corner. Yuck, yuck, yuck. My suspicion is that Jon Gruden might be the one actually making the decisions here, as he has that fat 10-year contract and some serious job security. But wow. This is just bad. I feel for Raiders fans.
Jacksonville Jaguars - K’Lavon Chaisson, DE, LSU. It may not be splashy, but Jacksonville is quietly filling needs. Chaisson’s upside exceeds his production, but he was a consensus first round talent in this draft. Jacksonville’s two biggest roster holes heading into this draft were cornerback and pass rusher, and they’ve addressed both. Well done. Now, if they can only get something for disgruntled defensive end Yannick Ngakoue …
Philadelphia Eagles - Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU. This pick made me smile. Just about every draft site out there had the Eagles taking LSU’s Justin Jefferson. Personally, I had a higher grade on Reagor - he’s more versatile and can return punts/kicks - and I like this pick a lot more from a team fit perspective. The Eagles now have multiple options in their wide receiver room, including Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Reagor, and last year’s second round pick, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, who apparently played hurt throughout his rookie year. It would not surprise me to see the Eagles offense start to fly again in 2020.
Minnesota Vikings - Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU. Jefferson is a really good player, but this is a curious fit. Adam Thielen is the only viable receiving threat on this team, but he does his best work out of the slot. Jefferson was almost exclusively a slot player at LSU. Who plays for them on the outside? Thielen certainly can, but he’s less effective there. I’m surprised they didn’t opt for someone like ASU’s Brandon Aiyuk or Baylor’s Denzel Mims, who are more traditional outside receivers. No question they had a need at the position, though, after trading Stefon Diggs to the Bills.
Los Angeles Chargers (f/NE) - Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma. Los Angeles gave up second and third round picks to New England to move up and select Murray. I love the player - LOVE - but it seems like a curious pick given their prior selection of Justin Herbert. As of the end of Round 1, they had no one to protect Herbert’s blind side. They did sign Bryan Bulaga in free agency to man right tackle, but they traded left tackle Russell Okung to the Panthers several weeks prior to the draft. It will be interesting to see what they do to protect Herbert. He’s not a quarterback who fares well when the play breaks down, so protecting him is paramount. If I’m running the Chargers, I’m calling Washington to see if they’ll accept a 3rd round pick in next year’s draft for Trent Williams.
New Orleans Saints - Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan. Great player, questionable fit. New Orleans spent their second round pick last year on center Erik McCoy. So where does Ruiz play? He started 5 games for Michigan in 2017 as a right guard, but has exclusively played center since then. Right guards are usually big an nasty. Ruiz seems a bit undersized for that spot at the NFL level. Still, Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis have shown an uncanny ability to evaluate offensive line talent, so they should probably be given the benefit of the doubt here.
San Francisco 49ers (f/MIN) - Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State. San Francisco traded up from 31 to get this pick from the Vikings. Truthfully, I don’t love it. Aiyuk is a good player, but i have concerns about his relatively old breakout age. He also only has one year of really good production. In 2018, he played second fiddle to N’Keal Harry at Arizona State, and Harry has not been anything special at the NFL level. If he wasn’t better than Harry in college, what makes us think he’ll be better than Harry in the pros?
Green Bay Packers (f/MIA) - Jordan Love, QB, Utah State. Green Bay jumped up from the 30th pick to nab their quarterback of the future, swapping picks with the Dolphins. It was a puzzling trade and an even more puzzling selection. Teams picking between Miami and Green Bay clearly had no interest in a quarterback: Seattle was picking at 27 and has Russell Wilson, Baltimore was picking at 28 and has reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson, and Tennessee was picking at 29 and just resigned Ryan Tannehill to a big extension. It made no sense for Green Bay to move up. Further, the pick itself makes no sense. Former MVP and Super Bowl winning quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 37, and could easily play at least another 4-5 years (i.e., through the expiration of Love’s rookie contract). The Packers haven’t spent premium picks on offensive weapons for Rodgers in several years, and it shows. They have Davante Adams and pretty much nothing else. In this loaded receiver draft, it would have made much more sense for them to invest in another pass-catcher. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Rodgers demands a trade following this ill-advised selection (preferably a trade to New England, which has a gaping hole on the quarterback depth chart following Tom Brady’s defection to Tampa).
Seattle Seahawks - Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech. For the first time in recent memory, Seattle stands pat in Round 1. Brooks was the Red Raiders’ first All-American since Zach Thomas in 1995. I’m surprised that Seattle didn’t opt for a pass rusher, cornerback, or offensive lineman here; but then again, I should never be surprised by anything the Seahawks do. They just evaluate players differently than most other teams.
Baltimore Ravens - Patrick Queen, LB, LSU. Ugh. You could have predicted it. The Ravens know what they are, and that’s a team built on their defensive identity. They never really replaced C.J. Mosley following his defection to the Big Apple last year… until now. Queen is one of the top 3 linebackers in the class and slots in as an immediate starter for a Ravens defense that has seemingly been good since 1996. As a Bengals fan, I hate it. As a football fan, I love it. Perfect match for team and player.
Tennessee Titans - Isaiah Wilson, RT, Georgia. Tennessee makes the playoffs with a dominant offensive line and running game. Tennessee franchises RB Derrick Henry and lets RT Jack Conklin walk in free agency. Tennessee uses its first round pick to replace Conklin with the biggest offensive tackle in the draft. The running game shouldn’t skip a beat, and the Titans can resume their brand of football in 2020. Great pick.
Miami Dolphins (f/GB) - Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn. If I’m a Miami fan, I’m throwing things at the wall at this point. Igbinoghene is a good (and fast) player, but given the amount of money they have tied up in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, is corner really the priority here? What passing attack, exactly, are they worried about stopping in the AFC East? The Jarrett Stidham-led Patriots? The Bills and Josh Allen, who hasn’t had a 300-yard passing game since high school? The Jets, whose top receivers are Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman? It’s like these guys are thinking about beating Patrick Mahomes, when they can’t even beat the teams in their own crummy division. They would have been much better served drafting a defensive lineman here like Yetur Gross-Matos, AJ Epenesa, or Neville Gallimore; or boosting their offensive line; or giving themselves a playmaker at running back; or grabbing a target at wide receiver for their new quarterback. But bad organizations continue to make bad decisions.
Minnesota Vikings (f/SF) - Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU. Fills a need, I guess, but Gladney is pretty small to be an outside corner in the NFL. But, as Bengals fans often said when ZImmer was in Cincinnati: In Zim We Trust. Gladney has first-round talent on film, but I question the wisdom of taking a 5’10 corner with a first round pick. Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay, and Allen Robinson will eat this guy alive.
Kansas City Chiefs - Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU. Genuinely shocked. Not that CEH went this high - indeed, before the draft I predicted he’d be one of the first two backs taken - but that he was taken this high by Andy Reid. In all his years as a head coach, dating back to the late 90s, Reid’s teams had never taken a running back in Round 1. That said, CEH’s game is a great fit for what the Chiefs do. You have to envy the guy a little - he goes from playing on a championship team with the best quarterback in college football to playing on a championship team with the best quarterback in pro football. It’s good to be Clyde Edwards-Helaire right now.
More thoughts to follow after Rounds 2 and 3. Please leave your comments below!