How to Make the Bengals Winners Again
ARMCHAIR GM: BENGALS EDITION
Let’s have a fun little thought exercise. Say you were given power over the Bengals’ front office this offseason. What would you do to fix the team? Below are my thoughts on how I would bolster the lineup for 2020 and beyond.
Cap Space heading into the offseason: $44M
Cuts/Trades
Trade QB Andy Dalton. Trade Dalton for a late third or early fourth round draft pick to get his contract off the books and free up $17.5M in cap room. He has the highest cap number on the team. Interested teams could include the Chargers, Patriots, Raiders, Saints, Buccaneers, Bears, or Panthers. Last year the Broncos gave a fourth round pick for Joe Flacco, who is less skilled and had a more burdensome contract. For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that the pick the Bengals could get for Dalton is in the 2021 draft.
Cut RB Giovani Bernard. Bernard carries a $4.7M cap figure, and releasing him saves $3.3M and leaves behind only $1.3M in dead money. Trayveon Williams should be able to fill his pass catching role at a fraction of the cost. Bernard lost his burst and elusiveness a long time ago, and simply doesn’t justify his contract anymore - if he ever did.
Cut WR/KR Alex Erickson. Erickson is scheduled for a $1.8M cap hit, and only $170K remains on the books if he’s cut. He’s no longer the best returner on the team, and he’s certainly not in line for major offensive snaps. Get rid of him and free up snaps for more skilled, younger, and cheaper players.
Cap space after cuts/trades: $66.5M ($44M plus $17.5M when trading Dalton, $3.3M when cutting Bernard, $1.7M when cutting Erickson).
Player Signings
Do not resign CB Darqueze Dennard, TE Tyler Eifert, DE Kerry Wynn, DT Andrew Billings, or CB Tony McRae. Let them all test the market. Bring them back only if they are willing to accept veteran-minimum deals with no guaranteed money. Except McRae. That guy is terrible. For purposes of this exercise, I will assume none of them are back.
Re-sign WR A.J. Green. The franchise tag would be almost $19M, which is way too much for someone of Green’s age and recent injury history. It makes much more sense to sign him to a three-year pact with guaranteed money only in the first two years, giving him a measure of security while giving the team an out in the third year if he continues to break down. Three years and $33M sounds about right. That’s the sort of money Larry Fitzgerald is making, and he’s been more durable and productive than Green over the last several seasons. If Green won’t sign for that, then assign him the transition tag and see what happens.
Re-sign LB Nick Vigil. An appropriate contract should probably be around $10M over 3 years, for an average around $3.5M per year. Vigil isn’t great, but he isn’t the problem either, and Cincy has few viable linebackers under contract. It would be ideal to return some players who know the defense and played competent starter’s snaps.
Re-sign RG Alex Redmond. I can’t believe I’m advocating for this. I really can’t believe it. But as a backup, I can stomach Redmond, warts and all, so that the Bengals don’t have to use a draft pick on a guy at this spot. Or, if they wanted to use a pick in the later rounds, they could cut Redmond if the rookie beats him out in camp. If Cincinnati could get Redmond back for around $1M with little to no guaranteed money, it is worth it.
Re-sign DT Josh Tupou. He’s a restricted free agent and honestly I don’t know quite how all that works, but if Cincinnati can get him back for one year at around $750K, do it. He provides quality depth.
Sign MLB Cory Littleton. You’re probably paying Kwon Alexander money (4 years, $54M), not C.J. Mosley money (5 years, $85M). I’m thinking $14M per year over 4 years is probably in the range of what it would take to get it done. If you don’t get Littleton, get Joe Schobert, but he’s probably only worth half of what Littleton is. You would think Zac Taylor might be able to make a pitch to Littleton considering their Rams connection.
Sign RT Brian Bulaga. Bulaga is old, injury-prone, and the definition of average. But Cincinnati’s offensive line needs to creep back to average, and he’d be an upgrade over Bobby Hart at right tackle. Given the desperation of most NFL teams at the tackle spots, Bulaga will likely have plenty of suitors if he enters the free agent market. I suspect he would be wooed by something along the lines of 3 years, $30 million, with the first two years and $20 million fully guaranteed. This will allow the team to move on from the non-guaranteed portion of Bobby Hart’s contract in 2021.
Sign SS Tony Jefferson. I know the Bengals seem set at safety, but hear me out on this. The Bengals are obviously thin at linebacker, so it is likely they use a ton of nickel and dime packages in 2020. Plus, passing becomes more and more prevalent each year in the NFL, so it really makes sense to stock up on defensive backs rather than linebackers. Safeties are usually a better bet than corners, because safeties are generally better tacklers and can help you more in defending the run game. All that is to say, it wouldn’t hurt Cincinnati to have three quality safeties who can all play at once. Recently cut by the Ravens, Tony Jefferson is still able to play and would help increase the Bengals’ depth in the secondary, especially for those situations where Sweet Lou Anarumo goes with defensive looks that are heavy on safeties and light on linebackers. Something in the range of the two years, $10.5 million Eric Weddle got last offseason seems like it’s in the right ballpark, so let’s peg this in for $5.25 million average annual value.
Sign QB Case Keenum. Keenum made only $3.5M with Washington in 2019, so if Cincinnati could get him for a similar deal, they should pounce. He is a competent veteran that can provide quality starts in a pinch. Other names that might be willing to sign in that price range are Blake Bortles, Chase Daniel, or Chad Henne. Bortles has some obvious appeal as someone coming from a Sean McVay offense, so he should be at least mildly familiar with what Zac Taylor wants to run. We know this is going to be Joe Burrow’s show in 2020, so Cincinnati should look for someone that can push him in camp and have the ability to start in a pinch, but also who is not really a threat to Burrow’s job.
Basically, under this scenario, the money that Cincinnati would have paid to Andy Dalton is going to Cory Littleton and Case Keenum.
Sign CB Ross Cockrell for one year, $2.5M. Cockrell has a clearly-defined skill set as a slot corner. He matched his career high in tackles in 2019 but also is entering his age-29 season, so it’s probably unreasonable for him to expect a big-money deal. Other potential free agent signees for this type of money are Rashaan Melvin (30 years old), Brandon Carr (34), Jonathan Joseph (36), or Morris Claiborne (30). We’re looking for a guy who has starting experience but is on the back end of his career and can round out the bottom of the depth chart. Cockrell would be a nice fit, though, just because of his ability to play the slot.
Sign DE Ziggy Ansah for one year, $2M. C’mon, we know Mike Brown loves reclamation projects when a guy has a high draft pedigree. Ansah was a colossal bust with the Seahawks in 2019, so he’s going to have to take a lot less than the $9M he got last year if he wants to stay in the NFL. He’d be a great addition as a situational pass rusher at defensive end, with the majority of the bookend snaps getting soaked up by Carlos Dunlap, Sam Hubbard, and Carl Lawson.
Sign MLB Vontaze Burfict for one year, $1M. This signing wouldn’t make the defense any better. I just love Vontaze Burfict, and I’d rather give that money to him than Alex Erickson. Dude plays with a swagger, and I miss him.
Cap space after free agent signings: $12M (which should be sufficient to sign the rookie draft class).
IDEAL NFL DRAFT
Round 1, Pick 1: QB Joe Burrow. Don’t out-think the room. This is the guy who can turn your franchise around.
Round 2, Pick 1: Best offensive tackle on the board. I don’t care if that’s Mekhi Becton (likely gone), Houston’s Josh Jones (also likely gone, but there’s a shot), or Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson (who should be there even if Cincinnati trades down). I don’t care if it’s a guy that played left tackle in college. The Bengals need tackles, period, so that they can move on from Bobby Hart. They must nail down a long-term solution at the position. The only way I would take a non-tackle here is if there is a stud wide receiver they absolutely love, or a falling linebacker like LSU’s Patrick Queen or Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray (and even with those guys I’d want to see their combine measurables first).
Round 3, Pick 1: Best wide receiver on the board. A.J. Green is nearing the end of his career and John Ross is playing out his rookie contract. Both could be gone sooner rather than later, and Joe Burrow is going to need weapons to succeed. The Bengals must start restocking the cupboard. Guys I like in this area of the draft are KJ Hamler, the mighty mite who could help replace John Ross’s speed if they choose not to bring him back in 2021; Chase Claypool, because I’m a total Notre Dame homer and I think the guy is just special; and Michael Pittman, Jr., who could be a Houshmandzadeh-esque chain mover, and also a weapon in the red zone due to his size.
Round 4: DE Khalid Kareem. This might be a bit of a fantasy, as he’s projected as more of a third-round guy, but Kareem is a solid player who could be a nice rotational piece on the defensive line. What Ryan Glasgow is at tackle, he would be at end: nothing special, but a lunchpail-type guy who just does his job. D-line is very quietly a need with Andrew Billings, Josh Tupou, and Kerry Wynn all hitting free agency. You know that Cincinnati is likely to add at least one if not two players along the defensive line in the draft. They have had considerable good fortune drafting useful defensive linemen in Round 4 in the past (such as Domata Peko, Geno Atkins, Carl Lawson, and Ryan Glasgow). This could also be a spot where they trade down in the Round, as the first pick on Day 3 always carries a lot of trade interest. If they go that route, they could take a defensive tackle with the later fourth round pick, and use the extra selection acquired to grab another guy to compete for a reserve role at linebacker.
Rounds 5-7. Use these spots to pick up reserves at corner, running back, and safety who can also play special teams. If Cincinnati gets a compensatory pick in this range, it should be used on a linebacker who can play special teams. Compensatory selections for 2020 have not been announced as of the time of this writing.
Projected 2020 Post-Draft Depth Chart
*Salaries taken from OvertheCap.com*
QB: Joe Burrow ($6.5M), Case Keenum ($3.5M), Ryan Finley ($782K)
RB: Joe Mixon ($1.7M), Trayveon Williams ($631K), Rodney Anderson ($542K), Day 3 Draft pick
WR: A.J. Green ($11M), Tyler Boyd ($8M), John Ross ($5.5M), Auden Tate ($660K), Stanley Morgan ($585K), 3rd round rookie WR
TE: C.J. Uzomah ($5.9M), Drew Sample ($1.2M), Mason Schreck ($660K)
LT: Jonah Williams ($4M), Cordy Glenn ($9.5M)
LG: Michael Jordan ($707K)
C: Trey Hopkins ($5.6M), Billy Price ($3.2M)
RG: John Miller ($5.3M), Alex Redmond ($1M)
RT: Brian Bulaga ($10M), Bobby Hart ($6.8M), 2nd Round OT
DE: Carlos Dunlap ($11M), Sam Hubbard ($967K), Ziggy Ansah ($2.0M), Carl Lawson ($2.3M), Andrew Brown ($585K), 4th round pick Khalid Kareem
DT: Geno Atkins ($14.2M), Ryan Glasgow ($840K), Renell Wren ($756K), Josh Tupou ($750K)
LB: Cory Littleton ($14M), Nick Vigil ($3.5M), Vontaze Burfict ($1.0M), Germaine Pratt ($978K), Jordan Evans ($774K)
CB: Dre Kirkpatrick ($11.25M), William Jackson ($9.6M), B.W. Webb ($4.6M), Darius Phillips ($714K), Ross Cockrell ($2.5M), Day 3 draft pick
FS: Jessie Bates ($1.4M), Trayvon Henderson ($585K)
SS: Shawn Williams ($4.9M), Tony Jefferson ($5.25M), Day 3 draft pick
Specialists: Kevin Huber ($3M), Randy Bullock ($1.9M), Clark Harris ($1.1M)
This projected roster has 55 players, so at least two of these guys would need to be cut. Potential cuts could be Bobby Hart ($4.85M in cap savings and $2M in dead money) and B.W. Webb ($3.5M in cap savings and $1M in dead money). Cordy Glenn could also be cut and his entire $9.5M salary would come off the books, but given all the issues they had at left tackle last year, I think it makes sense to keep him around for this year as a high-cost backup, if not extend him for another season just to lower his cap hit.
And there you have it. That’s how I’d fix the team. I know that this leaves them awfully thin at tight end, but they invested substantial resources in the position last offseason by giving a relatively sizeable contract to C.J. Uzomah and by spending a second round pick on Drew Sample. Because of that, it’s hard to see them spending big or using premium draft picks on that spot this year. They’d also still be light at running back behind Joe Mixon, but running back is generally an area where you can cobble something respectable together even if something happens to your starter. And linebacker still needs some work, but the linebacker corps was so decimated by the end of 2019 that it is too difficult to revamp that entire position group in just one offseason.
So what do you think of this plan? Agree? Disagree? Leave your thoughts in the Comments!