2019 Post Draft Thoughts - Round 3
This is a continuation of my draft notes. These notes provide context for the 2019 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making these picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. Here are the notes for Round 3:
65. Arizona Cardinals - Zach Allen, DE, Boston College. Arizona did a nice job balancing needs on offense and defense in this draft. This was a little higher than I had Allen, but I still had him has a third round value.
66. Pittsburgh Steelers - Diontae Johnson, WR, Toledo. Can the Steelers recapture the magic? They’ve had a lengthy history of drafting guys in the middle rounds who turned out to be stars - think Hines Ward, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, and Martavis Bryant - but they’ve also had busts in the same range (hello, Markus Wheaton, Sammie Coates, and Willie Reid!). Which category does Johnson fall in?
67. San Francisco 49ers - Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor. Reach alert! Hard to see a former running back carving out a meaningful role as a wide receiver in the NFL - with all due respect to Golden Tate - and Hurd seems like more of a matchups guy than regular starter.
68. New York Jets - Jachai Polite, OLB, Florida. On paper, this is a fantastic value for the Jets. Their biggest need going into the draft was a 3-4 OLB/pass-rusher off the edge. Polite was getting first round buzz at the end of the college season, but poor combine interviews, slow combine times, and even slower Pro Day times torpedoed his stock. But he’s viewed as a very bendy athlete off the edge, and I’m always in favor of getting first round talents in Round 3.
69. Jacksonville Jaguars - Josh Oliver, TE, San Jose State. Oliver got a mild amount of hype as a top-3 tight end in this draft, but it’s difficult for a tight end from San Diego State to go much higher than Day 2. He goes to a TE-needy team and should get an opportunity to start relatively quickly.
70. Los Angeles Rams - Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis. The Rams traded up to get Henderson a year after going to the Super Bowl and riding Todd Gurley for over 1,800 yards from scrimmage and 21 combined touchdowns. But Gurley had knee troubles down the stretch and in the playoffs, so the trade-up for Henderson tells you that they have concerns about Gurley handling the workload he’s shouldered in the past. Henderson is a human highlight reel, and averaged an eye-popping 8.9 yards per carry over each of his final two seasons at Memphis. He totaled 3,000 yards rushing and 36 rushing and receiving touchdowns in that same timeframe.
71. Denver Broncos - Dre’Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State. This is right in the range of where Jones was projected to go. (It feels like Denver had a million early picks in this draft.)
72. Cincinnati Bengals - Germaine Pratt, LB, N.C. State. Cincinnati had the slowest and worst linebacking corps in the league in 2018. Pratt fills a huge need for them, but more work remains to be done in the linebacking corps even if Pratt is as good as advertised.
73. Chicago Bears - David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State. Montgomery was seen by many as the best do-it-all back in this class (yet it WAS considered a fairly weak RB class). One analyst suggested that he’s the type of back that will have a very fantasy-relevant-but-brief stretch of usefulness a few years into his career, in the mold of Rudi Johnson or Marion Barber but with better pass catching chops.
74. Buffalo Bills - Devin Singletary, RB, Florida Atlantic. Singletary is undersized, didn’t play against elite competition, and showed subpar athleticism at the combine. Getting drafted this early shows that the Bills are banking on the game tape and not the measurables. Based on his measurable traits, he would have to be an extreme outlier to be a successful bellcow back in the NFL.
75. Green Bay Packers - Jace Sternberger, TE, TAMU. Great get for Aaron Rodgers. This guy should be a meaningful fantasy asset in 2020 or 2021 catching passes for the Pack when they move on from Jimmy Graham.
76. Washington Redskins - Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State. This seems like a reach pick. McLaurin never caught more than 35 balls in a season at Ohio State, and his “breakout” season in 2018 came when he was 22 years old. Typically breakout age has a strong correlation with NFL success, and he was somewhat “old” at his breakout age. His best value seems to be on special teams, and he’ll probably make more of a mark there than as a traditional wide receiver.
77. New England Patriots - Chase Winovich, EDGE, Michigan. My absolute favorite player in the draft. This was a steal for New England. Winovich put up better numbers than Nick Bosa playing against largely the same competition, and Bosa went 75 picks earlier. Winovich should be one of those versatile players that tend to thrive in Billy Belichick’s schemes. I would not be at all surprised to see him as a ten sack guy. He also fills a huge need for New England after they lost Trey Flowers in free agency to Detroit.
78. Miami Dolphins - Michael Deiter, G, Wisconsin. I generally struggle to evaluate interior offensive linemen. But in terms of filling a need, well, Miami can use all the help it can get along the offensive line.
79. Los Angeles Rams - David Long, CB, Michigan. The guy only gave up like one completion of 10+ yards in 2018. That’s incredible production, and it bodes well for his NFL prospects.
80. Cleveland Browns - Sione Takitaki, LB, BYU. Who?
81. Detroit Lions - William Harris, S, Boston College. Detroit needed reinforcements on defense, so this pick makes a ton of sense. There were a number of safeties in this class who were bunched together in terms of value - Harris, Taylor Rapp, Juan Thornhill, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson - so in terms of value it was hardly a surprising pick.
82. Tennessee Titans - Nate Davis, G, Charlotte. Most draftniks pegged Davis as one of the top guards in this class, so this is a good selection - especially for a team that already had a strong offensive line, and is just making it stronger.
83. Pittsburgh Steelers - Justin Layne, CB, Michigan. Layne was getting some early-second-round love in the weeks leading up to the draft, so to see him available here is somewhat of a surprise. This is a nice selection for the Steelers, and probably spells the end of Artie Burns in Pittsburgh.
84. Kansas City - Khalen Saunders, DT, Western Illinois. Tremendously athletic lineman best known for doing backflips. Was one of Mel Kiper’s favorite players in the draft. He should really help KC as they transition to a 4-3 and will slot in nicely next to Chris Jones.
85. Baltimore Ravens - Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE, La. Tech. The all-time leader in sacks goes to a team who lost a LOT of sacks this offseason with the departures in free agency of Za’Darius Smith and future Hall of Famer Terrell Suggs.
86. Houston Texans - Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego State. The best thing about this guy is that his drafting caused then-Texans tight end Ryan Griffin to drunkenly punch a window in a Nashville hotel, for which he was arrested. He was subsequently released by the team.
87. New England Patriots - Damien Harris, RB, Alabama. Bill Belichick is apparently trying to construct a roster consisting only of running backs. After spending a first round pick on Sony Michel in 2018, and having James Whitehead and Rex Burkhead still under contract, Belichick felt the need to use a third round pick on a player with very average athleticism. Maybe he feels like he owes it to his buddy Nick Saban - four out of the last five years the Patriots have drafted a player from Alabama.
88. Seattle Seahawks - Cody Barton, LB, Utah. Again…who?
89. Indianapolis Colts - Bobby Okereke, LB, Stanford. Okereke was another Mel Kiper favorite who demonstrates good speed for the position. His problem is missed tackles.
90. Dallas Cowboys - Connor McGovern, G, Penn State. See above comment on the evaluation of interior offensive linemen. Still, like Tennessee, it appears that the Cowboys are focused on making sure a strength of the team stays strong.
91. Los Angeles Chargers - Trey Pipkins, T, Sioux Falls. Pipkins is a project at offensive tackle. This was a gutsy pick for a Chargers team that could seriously use a plug-and-play option at tackle.
92. New York Jets - Chuma Edoga, OT, USC. The Jets had a need at offensive tackle, but there are concerns that Edoga is too lean to hold up at tackle in the NFL. He has very long legs and a stumpy torso.
93. Baltimore Ravens - Miles Boykin, WR, Notre Dame. Boykin was somewhat of a combine warrior whose athleticism did not match his college production. Still, this might be a good landing spot for him. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is a very similar player to former ND QB Brandon Wimbush, with whom Boykin played in college. In other words, he’s accustomed to catching passes from a scrambling QB with accuracy issues.
94. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jamel Dean, CB, Auburn. This is a guy who was not projected to be selected until Day 3, marking the second time on Day 2 that Tampa Bay reached on a corner.
95. New York Giants - Oshane Ximines, EDGE, Old Dominion. The Giants went into this draft with 2018 third rounder Lorenzo Carter and former Arizona Cardinal Markus Golden as their projected starters off the edge as they transition to a 3-4 defense, so reinforcements were certainly necessary. Frankly, it is surprising they didn’t address the position before this point. Banking on the first-ever draft pick from Old Dominion to salvage your pass-rush woes is a risky strategy.
96. Buffalo Bills - Dawson Knox, TE, Ole Miss. Knox does not have a stellar college resume, but he did have a good combine. He is a bit of a projection, but should get ample opportunity in Buffalo, as former OT-turned-TE Jake Fisher was released and free agent signee Tyler Kroft is already hurt.
97. Los Angeles Rams - Bobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma. The Rams continue their recent tradition of drafting offensive tackles in the third round of the draft. There were some who thought Evans might have to kick inside to guard in the pros, but that does not appear to be LA’s plan for him.
98. Jacksonville Jaguars - Quincy Williams, S, Murray State. Quinnen Williams’ younger brother. That’s honestly all I know about the guy.
99. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Edwards, S, Kentucky. Edwards was one of the leaders on an upstart UK defense, and Tampa Bay has question marks all over the secondary. This is a guy who should be given the opportunity to compete for a starting job.
100. Carolina Panthers - Will Grier, QB, West Virginia. Viewed by many as a potential starter, this is a great landing spot for Grier. He’s a little older than your average rookie (23), but had good production in college and may get an opportunity to start sooner rather than later given Cam Newton’s shoulder woes.
101. New England Patriots - Yodny Cajuste, OT, West Virginia. Ratings for Cajuste leading up to the draft were all over the board. Billy B has a great track record when drafting offensive linemen, so he gets the benefit of the doubt here.
102. Minnesota Vikings - Alex Mattison, RB, Boise State. This is still fairly high draft capital to invest in a running back. It suggests that the Vikings felt they needed an insurance policy if Dalvin Cook never returns to form following his rookie-year knee injury. (Or, it could just be the reality that Latavius Murray left in free agency, and they had an open spot on the depth chart.)