2019 Post Draft Thoughts - Round 1
These are my draft notes. They should provide context for the 2019 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We’ll start with Round 1.
Arizona Cardinals - Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma. Arizona traded 3rd and 5th round picks in 2018 to move up to grab Josh Rosen 10th overall, so it was a mild surprise to see Arizona move on from him so quickly (they subsequently traded him to Miami for one of the last picks in the second round of the 2019 draft). It was a poorly kept secret since the Combine that Kliff Kingsbury was smitten with Murray to run his Air Raid offense. Kingsbury took over for Steve Wilks, who was fired after one season.
San Francisco 49ers - Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State. This pick made sense from a value standpoint, as Bosa was widely regarded as one of the two best players in this class (along with Alabama’s Quinnen Williams). Still, it was curious from a historical standpoint. In previous seasons, San Francisco had invested numerous picks along the defensive line, including DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, and Solomon Thomas. Immediately leading up to the draft, the 49ers traded a second round pick to the Chiefs for defensive end Dee Ford. The pick of Bosa essentially admits that drafting Solomon Thomas #3 overall in 2017 was a mistake, as it is suspected he’ll be moved to a reserve role.
New York Jets - Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama. Given that Williams and Bosa were generally regarded as the top two players in this draft, this selection made a ton of sense from a value standpoint. However, this was a draft where New York was down draft picks (they had given up a second rounder in the prior year’s trade up to get Sam Darnold), so there was much speculation that they would trade down. In addition, defensive line was not the team’s primary need. In 2018 it invested a third round pick in Nathan Shepherd, and it also had Leonard Williams and the recently re-signed Henry Anderson at the other defensive line spots. Steve McLendon was the starter at nose tackle until Williams was drafted. Many pundits thought that the pick at 3 would be Kentucky OLB Josh Allen, as the Jets had a screaming need off the edge; their best OLB heading into the draft was 2016 third round pick Jordan Jenkins (Who?). This pick shows that the Jets were focused on value over need, which is a smart way to draft. This pick only looks foolish if Williams flops and Allen shines.
Oakland Raiders - Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson. This was the first major surprise of the night. Most draft analysts had Ferrell in the first round, but generally nowhere earlier than the mid-teens. This was Oakland GM Mike Mayock’s first draft at the helm (and Jon Gruden’s second). Mayock, when he was with the NFL Network, was a primary draft evaluator. If he were still with the NFL Network, perhaps he would have rated Ferrell as a Top 5 pick, and that would have caused his stock to rise in the national media, which tends to be an echo chamber when it comes to mock drafts. Still, this pick gives off the stink of drafting for need (the Raiders had only 13 sacks in 2018), rather than value. Time will tell if Mayock and Gruden were right. Mayock claims that they loved Ferrell at No. 4 because he can play the run and rush the passer. He also came from a Clemson Tigers team that played in (and won) multiple national championships.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Devin White, ILB, LSU. This was an “all chalk” pick. White absolutely tore up the combine, running a 4.4 forty, and seemed like an ideal pick at ILB. The Bucs had a need after losing Kwon Alexander in free agency to the 49ers. Still, this pick didn’t quite feel right. The Bucs defense wasn’t good when it had an above average MLB like Alexander; it’s hard to embrace the idea that replacing him (with arguably a better player) will make their entire defense appreciably better. For ILBs to be worth a top ten pick, they need to be truly special. Time will tell if White is more Luke Kuechly, or A.J. Hawk. I think Josh Allen, given their transition to a 3-4 defense under Todd Bowles in 2019, would have been a much better selection given his abilities as a pass rusher.
New York Giants - Daniel Jones, QB, Duke. Whoa. Talk about a shocker. The top QBs in this class were believed to be Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, and Drew Lock. Some analysts had Daniel Jones as a potential first rounder; but most saw him as a Day 2/career backup type with the potential to develop into a low-end starter. There were SERIOUS rumblings that the Giants loved Jones, but everyone dismissed it as a smokescreen. (As an aside, this is the second year in a row that the player the Giants wanted to take was leaked; in 2018, it was Saquon Barkley. Dave Gettleman has a serious problem in his front office, as there is someone who has loose lips with the media.) Many thought if the Giants took Jones, it would be at 17, or a trade up from 17; not at 6 overall. Most analysts felt their greatest need was for a pass rusher as they transitioned to a 3-4 defense, and there were ample rushers available here. In addition, it was difficult to find positives with Jones: an abysmally-low 6.4 YPA in college, a completion percentage below 60%, and playing on losing teams. The positive for him? He was coached by David Cutcliffe, who coached the Manning brothers when they were in college. He has some of the same mannerisms on the field as Peyton, and appears to have the same laid back manner as Eli (a positive for New York). In 2018, Eli was a checkdown maven, so perhaps this pick was just to ensure continuity in an offense that played primarily at or near the line of scrimmage under Eli? If Jones turns out to be a star, it will be a massive surprise.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Josh Allen, OLB, Kentucky. Many analysts had the Jaguars taking Florida RT Jawaan Taylor here to fill their dire need at right tackle, but Jacksonville was able to take Allen here and still get Taylor in Round 2. Allen falling to the Jags - he was generally regarded as a top 5 pick heading into the draft - is a case of the rich getting richer. The Jaguars already have a stacked defense with guys like Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue, Marcell Dareus, Abry Jones, Taven Bryan, Miles Jack, Telvin Smith, Jalen Ramsey, and A.J. Bouye. This is just a case of the rich getting richer - drafting for value over need.
Detroit Lions - T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa. The conventional wisdom heading into the draft was that Hockensen could be a mini-Gronk, a do-it-all tight end who is a great blocker and has solid chops in the receiving game. Still, it’s generally unusual for tight ends without elite athletic ability to get taken in the top 10, so this was a somewhat surprising pick, even though many media analysts did have him projected to go in this range. Lions GM Bob Quinn and HC Matt Patricia, both formerly of the Patriots, may have been looking for their Gronkowski clone; but in a draft this stacked with talent on the defensive line, it may have been a mistake to take the tight end when they could have gotten someone like Irv Smith Jr. or Jace Sternberger in Round 2.
Buffalo Bills - Ed Oliver, DT, Houston. Another case of value over need. Oliver was generally seen as a top ten talent heading into the draft, but it was difficult to peg where he might land. Although Buffalo did lose DT Kyle Williams during the offseason to retirement, DT was not an immediate need because Star Lotulelei was returning as a starter and they spent a third round pick in 2018 on DT Harrison Phillips. More pressing needs were RT (Ty Nsekhe is the starter), DE (Shaq Lawson and Jerry Hughes are free agents at the end of the season), and WR (the top targets for Josh Allen are John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Zay Jones). Tight end was also a need, but they were able to fill it nicely later in the draft with Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan. Pittsburgh traded up from No. 20, giving Denver its 2019 2nd round pick and 2020 third round pick in the process. Given the depth of the talent in the 2019 class, this seemed pretty rich (especially because they had only gotten 3rd and 5th round picks for Antonio Brown, arguably the best receiver in the game, earlier in the offseason). Bush seems like a speedy player with great instincts and good leadership qualities, but the fact remains that he’s undersized at 5’11, 234 pounds. Even in the modern NFL, that’s small. For him to succeed, he’ll have to be a major outlier. As a general rule, I don’t like to trade up for outliers, and I don’t like banking on players to be outliers when I’m using first round picks. A very, very risky move for Pittsburgh - but likely one they felt they had to make. Inside linebacker has been a sore spot for their defense ever since Ryan Shazier paralyzed himself in 2017 making a tackle.
Cincinnati Bengals - Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama. Nailed it. This pick filled a huge need for Cincinnati, which had one of the worst offensive lines in the league in 2018. Alex Redmond was an embarrassment at right guard, and Bobby Hart was even worse at right tackle, being a turnstyle in pass pro leading the league with 14 false start penaltie (and then getting a 3-year, $21M contract as a result!). Williams was generally seen as a “safe” prospect who played left tackle in college but would have to transition to right tackle or guard in the pros. (For what it’s worth, he did start as a true freshman at right tackle at Alabama.) The Bengals, though, seem like they may be willing to give him a chance at LT behind Cordy Glenn. New HC Zac Taylor said after the draft that he would give him an opportunity at multiple spots so that they could get their best five linemen on the field.
Green Bay Packers - Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan. Gary was a polarizing prospect entering the draft. He was the top recruit in his high school class, but his production at Michigan was generally underwhelming. There was a concern that he was a player with more hype than substance. Going into this draft, the Packers had two first round picks (due to a trade-down with the Saints in 2018 so the Saints could select Marcus Davenport), so they were playing with house money to a certain extent. Gary was seen as a prospect with immense physical gifts, but he was more of a projection than a sure thing, and it would surprise no one if he turned out to be a “bust.”
Miami Dolphins - Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson. Miami has a poor roster overall, one of the worst in the league, and there was talk leading up to the draft that they might “tank” the 2019 season under new head coach Brian Flores to attempt to get Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa or Oregon’s Justin Herbert in the 2020 draft. With their first round pick, they drafted a solid, solid player and leader in Wilkins who came from the vaunted Clemson Tigers’ championship defensive line. Wilkins was generally seen as one of those guys with a high floor, but a low(er) ceiling than a lot of the other DT prospects taken in the first round of this draft. He’s the sort of guy seen as safe and unlikely to bust, and who will likely to help be a culture-changer in Miami.
Atlanta Falcons - Chris Lindstrom, RG, Boston College. Lindstrom was viewed by many analysts leading up to the draft as the top guard available. However, as a general matter, taking a guard in the top 20 picks is always a little rich. Atlanta had a clear need to rebuild their offensive line, so grabbing Lindstrom here was probably seen as a “safe” selection. If there can be any criticism, it’s that they had one of the worst defenses in the league in 2018 after injuries struck MLB Deion Jones and SS Keanu Neal, so depth at those positions would have been ideal. Reinforcements at pass rusher would also have been warranted.
Washington Redskins - Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State. This was the first draft in a long while that a team was able to get a first round quarterback without trading up for him. With Alex Smith’s career in jeopardy after a spiral leg fracture, and backup Colt McCoy nursing an injury of his own, the Redskins were down to Case Keenum, whom they acquired from the Broncos for a sixth round pick earlier in the offseason. Haskins should be starting for Washington sooner rather than later as they seek to rebuild their offense. He was a solid QB prospect coming out of Ohio State, albeit with mobility concerns and difficulty dealing with pressure. Going to Washington, with their solid o-line anchored by Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff, should give him ample time to throw. Many draftniks thought he would go in the top ten, so getting him here was an absolute steal for Washington.
Carolina Panthers - Brian Burns, DE/OLB, Florida State. Edge rusher has been a problem for the Panthers for quite some time, and they finally took the opportunity to address the problem. Burns was a combine freak with elite explosiveness, and it was not a surprise to see him taken in the middle of round one. However, some in the analytics community felt he was a long-shot to succeed at the next level. There is little history of players with his combination of height and weight (6’5, 249 lbs) achieving lofty sack totals in the NFL; none have ever eclipsed 40 sacks in their careers. For Burns to succeed, he will either need to add considerable weight, or be a massive outlier. In addition, a primary criticism of him is that he struggles to convert speed to power. That’s a recipe for disaster in the NFL.
New York Giants - Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson. The G-Men picked up this selection earlier in the offseason when they traded away Odell Beckham, Jr. to the Cleveland Browns. Pass rusher was a huge need here, but they opted to go in a different direction yet again. Transitioning to a 3-4, they apparently felt getting Lawrence as their nose tackle was a priority (although they already had Dalvin Tomlinson). Lawrence was seen as a consensus first round talent, but nose tackles had been dropping in the draft in recent years, so this may have been a reach.
Minnesota Vikings - Garrett Bradbury, C, N.C. State. Minnesota HAD to select an offensive lineman, so from that perspective, the Bradbury selection made sense. He absolutely tore up the combine, and was seen as a near-lock to be selected in the first round. But he is undersized, and will only thrive if they run a zone-blocking scheme.In addition, the Vikings had significant needs at offensive tackle, which is a far more important position than center. It is curious that they passed on all of the tackles in the draft to take a center. This selection should allow them to move Pat Elflein back to guard, where he is better suited, and hopefully improve two positions at once.
Tennessee Titans - Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State. Simmons was seen as a player who was a top 5 talent in the draft, whose stock was bound to fall due to a prior incident of him striking a woman (defending his mother) and tearing his ACL in his final collegiate season. Assuming he can recover from his knee injury, this is a pick that should be a steal for the Titans.
Denver Broncos - Noah Fant, TE, Iowa. After trading down with the Steelers, John Elway still picks up a sorely-needed piece for his offense. He traded a fourth-round pick earlier in the offseason for Joe Flacco, and Flacco has made a career out of targeting the tight end. This is a nice pick that should help ensure Flacco is comfortable in his inaugural season in Denver. Fant certainly has elite athleticism and speed; the concern with him is that he seems to have a case of the dropsies. He kind of reminds me of Eric Ebron - immensely talented, but can he hang onto the ball?
Green Bay Packers - Darnell Savage, S, Maryland. The Packers traded up with the Seahawks to get Savage. There was much speculation leading up to this draft who the first safety selected would be. Savage earned the honor due to being a ballhawk as a “robber” safety and being a missile targeting the ball carrier. Savage is the fifth defensive back they have taken with one of their top two picks since 2017. That’s five out of six picks spent on defensive backs. They’re clearly going to keep spending resources at the position until they get it right.
Philadelphia Eagles - Andre Dillard, LT, Washington State. The Eagles traded up with Baltimore to get this selection and jump ahead of Houston, which desperately needed offensive tackles. The Eagles select Dillard as the heir apparent to Jason Peters, so that they can keep Lane Johnson on the right side. This seemed to be a very smart move for Philadelphia, which is a team with few glaring holes on its roster.
Houston Texans - Tytus Howard, OT, Alabama State. Reaaaaaach! It was clear from this pick that Houston really wanted Dillard and didn’t have a backup plan. Most in the draft community did not have a first round grade on Howard. Time will tell if Houston was justified with this pick, but it certainly seemed like drafting for need over value.
Oakland Raiders - Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama. With Marshawn Lynch retiring, the Raiders had a clear need at running back. However, this just did not appear to be a great running back class (and it’s usually not wise to spend first round picks on running backs anyway, due to the replaceability of the position). Jacobs had numerous warts, including the fact that he was never the clear lead dog in college. It is unclear whether he can be a bellcow back in the pros, or if his upside will be capped as being the lead dog in a timeshare.
Baltimore Ravens - Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, WR, Oklahoma. Brown was seen as the most explosive wide receiver in the draft, one who can flat out fly. However, his size (166 pounds) gives rise to serious concerns. Since 1991, there have not been any NFL wide receivers under 170 pounds who eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving. For Brown to succeed, he’ll need to be an outlier - and that’s a serious risk in round 1. Plus, he’s going to a Ravens offense quarterbacked by Lamar Jackson, who at this point just isn’t capable of making NFL throws. It was a bad landing spot for Brown.
Washington Redskins - Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State. Washington trades up with Indianapolis to grab a pass rusher who showed elite speed (forty yard dash) and change of direction ability (three cone drill) at the combine. He is seen as somewhat skinny for the position, and there was a rumor, since debunked, that he suffered from a heart condition, which may have caused him to fall out of the top ten. Still, trading up for him was a smart move by Washington if he can deliver on his pass rushing potential. Sweat was one of my favorite players in this draft due to his incredible combine measurements, plus his history of production in college (10+ sacks in each of two years as a starter in the SEC).
Oakland Raiders - Johnathan Abram, SS, Mississippi State. Abram is a hard-hitting in-the-box safety who generally carried a late first round grade, but this selection completed a wholly underwhelming first-round haul for the Raiders. They drafted players at positions of need (DE, RB, SS), but it feels like they should have come away with more talented players given the strengths of this draft class. They hit needs, but it would be surprising if any of these guys are superstars.
Los Angeles Chargers - Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame. For the second year in a row, the perfect defensive player at a position of need falls into the Chargers’ laps. In 2018, it was Derwin James. In 2019, it was Jerry Tillery. Tillery is a disruptive pass-rushing presence from the interior and should complement Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram nicely. Pro Football Focus had him graded as a top ten player in this draft.
Seattle Seahawks - L.J. Collier, DE, TCU. In the weeks leading up to the draft, Seattle traded its primary pass rusher, Frank Clark, to the Chiefs, so defensive end was a huge need heading into this draft. Collier was probably a guy with more of a second round grade, but seems like a good fit to replace Clark in the Seahawks defense.
New York Giants - Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia. New York traded back into the first round with the Seahawks (who held the Chiefs pick due to the Frank Clark trade) and picked up arguably the best corner in the draft. Although this was the last of their first round picks, it was the one where they got the player with the best shot at making multiple Pro Bowls.
Atlanta Falcons - Kaleb McGary, RT, Washington. Atlanta traded with the L.A. Rams to get back into the first round and grab a right tackle to complete their offensive line overhaul. The selection of McGary seemed like somewhat of a reach, who seemed like more of a late second round guy. He had also previously had three heart surgeries, so he was somewhat of a health risk, and it was surprising to see him drafted this early.
New England Patriots - N’Keal Harry, WR, ASU. Harry was a favorite of the analytics community and was seen as a contested-catch prodigy. He will likely be relied on early given the retirement of Rob Gronkowski and New England’s general lack of pass-catchers on the outside. It was nice to see him taken in Round 1 because he was believed to possess first-round talent.