Was Jessie Bates a Bad 2nd Round Pick?
Going into the 2018 NFL draft, the Bengals had two solid-if-unspectacular starters at safety: George Iloka and Shawn Williams. Although the depth was suspect, it certainly did not appear to be an area that screamed for reinforcements using high draft capital. Indeed, it has been rare for the Bengals under Marvin Lewis to spend premium picks on safeties.
And all of that went out the window when they drafted Jessie Bates out of Wake Forest. I'll admit, I don't know much about Bates. I've never seen him play. His NFL.com draft profile suggests that he is a poor open-field tackler, but that he has the coverage skills to play man and the ball skills to play zone. Sounds like a guy that could be productive.
Still, my gut reaction when the Bengals made this selection - with their offensive line woes and tremendously mediocre starting quarterback - was that this was a bad pick. But then I began to wonder whether I felt it was a bad pick because it didn't fill a position of need (a bad reason to condemn the pick) or if it was truly a "bad pick."
A truly bad pick is a bust, a guy who washes out of the league at the end of, or before, the expiration of his rookie contract. I don't think Jessie Bates will necessarily be that. But if the Bengals are expecting that he could turn into a All Pro or even a Pro Bowl caliber player, history suggests that they are mistaken.
In the previous 10 years, 31 safeties have been taken in the second round of the NFL draft. Any idea how many of those guys became a first or second team AP All Pro?
Three. About 10%.
And do you know how many of those guys had more than one season as an All Pro?
Zero. None. Zilch. (The three who made an All Pro were Jairus Byrd (2013), T.J. Ward (2013), and Landon Collins (2016).
Maybe it would be easier if we just looked at Pro Bowls. Surely, the list must increase considerably if we expand it to include Pro Bowlers. What with players from Super Bowl teams being ineligible and injured players sitting out, surely there must have been a ton of these guys that made a Pro Bowl.
But not really. It's essentially the same three guys - Byrd, Ward, and Collins - with one appearance by William Moore as an injury replacement. Between them, they have seven Pro Bowl nods - three for Byrd (2010/injured, 2013, and 2014), two for Ward (2014 and 2015), one for Collins (2017), and the one previously mentioned for Moore. That's not a great "hit" rate for getting stars at this position in Round 2. (If you take the sample back further than 2008, you'll find multiple Pro Bowl nods for second rounders Nick Collins and Eric Weddle, but for purpose of this exercise, we are looking at recent history.)
The fact of the matter is that over the last decade, safeties picked in Round 2 generally haven't wound up as stars. And that historical data suggests that Bates won't be either. The Bengals just need to hope that the players selected in Round 2 of the 2018 NFL draft at positions of need (i.e., offensive line) don't turn out to be stars, either.
For those that are curious, the full list of NFL safeties drafted in the second round of the Draft is as follows:
In 2008, Tyrell Johnson (Pick 12, Arkansas State, Vikings); in 2009, Louis Delmas (Pick 1, Western Michigan, Lions), Patrick Chung (Pick 2, Oregon, Patriots), Jairus Byrd (Pick 10, Oregon, Bills), Mike Mitchell (Pick 15, Ohio University, Raiders), Darcel McBath (Pick 16, Texas Tech, Broncos), William Moore (Pick 23, Missouri, Falcons), Sherrod Martin (Pick 27, Troy, Panthers); in 2010, Nate Allen (Pick 5, South Florida, Eagles), T.J. Ward (Pick 6, Oregon, Browns), Taylor Mays (Pick 17, USC, 49ers); in 2011, Aaron Williams (Pick 2, Texas, Bills), Rahim Moore (Pick 13, UCLA, Broncos), Marcus Gilchrist (Pick 18, Clemson, Chargers), Jaiquawn Jarrett (Pick 22, Temple, Eagles); in 2012, Tavon Wilson (Pick 16, Illinois, Patriots); in 2013, Jonathan Cyprien (Pick 1, Florida International, Jaguars); D.J. Swearinger (Pick 25, South Carolina, Texans); in 2014, Lamarcus Joyner Pick 9, Florida State, Rams); in 2015, Landon Collins (Pick 1, Alabama, Giants), Jaquiski Tartt (Pick 14, Samford, 49ers), Jordan Richards (Pick 32, Stanford, Patriots); in 2016, T.J. Green (Pick 26, Clemson, Colts), Sean Davis (Pick 27, Maryland, Steelers), Vonn Bell (Pick 30, Ohio State, Saints); and in 2017, Budda Baker (Pick 4, Washington, Cardinals), Marcus Maye (Pick 7, Florida, Jets), Marcus Williams (Pick 10, Utah, Saints), Justin Evans (Pick 18, Texas A&M, Buccaneers), Obi Melifonwu (Pick 24, UConn, Raiders), and Josh Jones (Pick 29, N.C. State, Packers).