Draft Philosophy 101
Rules for Drafting. The Ten Commandments. Draft Philosophy 101. Call this article whatever you’d like, but understand that this is where we lay out the draft strategy you should employ if you want to win your league. Over the years, we have learned that this is the path that most often leads to success. And we’re here to help you succeed! So ignore these rules at your peril:
Avoid risk with your first four picks. The first four rounds are where you build the core of your team. These are the guys whom you need to produce to have a successful fantasy season. Especially in Rounds 1 and 2, you want guys that have both high ceilings and high floors. This season, that means you should zero in on guys like Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase, and fade guys like Bijan Robinson (his offense runs fewer plays per game than average and he is splitting work with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson), Cooper Kupp (age/coming off injury/uncertain QB situation), and Josh Jacobs (low floor prior to 2022).
Draft at least one running back in the first couple rounds. There’s a marked difference in the running backs who are available early and the ones who are available late. There is no position that is at more of a premium than the elite running backs. This season, 11 backs are going in the first two rounds, and you’ll need to snag at least one of them to be competitive at the position. Right now, those 11 are Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne, according to Yahoo! ADP. I suspect Rhamondre Stevenson and Aaron Jones could move into the first two rounds before its all said and done, and I suspect Travis Etienne and Breece Hall could fall outside it.
But after those dudes, the decline in talent is pretty steep. You want to have at least one solid guy you can rely on to be a consistent point-producer at the running back spot. Make sure one of these guys winds up on your team.
Draft 4 wide receivers in the first 6 rounds. We hear it every year: wide receiver is crazy deep. Except, it isn’t. It just isn’t. There are very few “elite” guys. And those guys are almost all gone by the end of Round 6. But if you load up early, you’re (a) going to have an advantage over your league-mates at that position (which is even more critical in a PPR format) and (b) you’re going to have depth when injuries and bye weeks hit. In leagues that don’t specify how many players you have to roster at each position, I do not tend to have backups at quarterback, tight end, kicker, and defense (you can always stream these positions during bye weeks); I have 2-3 backup running backs; and I reserve the vast majority of my bench for wide receivers. As we have discovered over the past several years through researching and writing the Weekly Hail Mary column, wide receiver is the most difficult position to stream. There are always useful quarterbacks and tight ends out there on the wire. And the attrition at running back due to injury means there are typically some useful players out there to fill that spot. But after the first few weeks of the season, there are rarely any useful wide receivers. And in most leagues, that’s the position where you have the most starting slots.
So basically, you are going to need a deep bench to be able to weather your bye weeks and injuries, which inevitably strike in a violent game like football. Your plan going into the draft should be to put together a well-stocked stable of wideouts, which will be anchored by the 4 guys you’re going to draft in the first 6 rounds. And then you’ll just keep hammering at the position throughout your draft. You will find some of our favorite values elsewhere in this draft kit.Wait on quarterback. Generally speaking, unless you’re in a Superflex or 2-QB league, you should never draft your quarterback before Round 5. And I’ll try to persuade you to wait even longer, if I can. By ADP, the top-drafted quarterback this preseason is Patrick Mahomes, and he’s going, on average, as the 14th pick off the board. That’s just bonkers! There is serious opportunity cost in drafting your quarterback that early, as you’re bypassing the opportunity to take valuable starting RBs or WRs there. Conversely, the 12th quarterback - i.e., the last guy deemed a fantasy starter - is multi-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, whom you can get at the very end of round 9. And if Rodgers isn’t your cup of tea, you can get Kirk Cousins. Or Geno Smith. Or Matthew Stafford. Listen, folks: you can win pretty easily with Matthew Stafford and a 2nd round talent at RB or WR; it’s a lot harder to win with Patrick Mahomes and a 9th round talent at RB or WR. Useful quarterbacks will last in your drafts; useful wide receivers will not.
This season, there are at least 12 viable starting QBs for fantasy, meaning that even if you’re the last guy in your league to take your quarterback, you’re going to wind up with one of these guys: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Aaron Rodgers. Barring injury, you can have a viable fantasy squad with any of those guys as your quarterback. I’m likely waiting to be one of the last guys in my league to take a passer, as that’s going to allow me to load up at the other positions first, where talent is more scarce. The only exception I’d make is if my top-rated QB “falls” to Round 5. Then I’d think long and hard about taking him, but I’m still not certain I would do it.
Avoid the running back “dead zone.” The “dead zone” is the area of the draft where running backs historically are unlikely to return value. This generally occurs in Rounds 3-6 (though some believe it doesn’t start until Round 4). In any event, this is the area of the draft where managers “reach” for running backs due to positional scarcity, and the players rarely deliver points commensurate with their draft slot. Conversely, the return on investment is pretty good in these rounds at wide receiver and tight end. So, really, this dead zone concept ties into Rule #3: Load up on wide receivers in the first six rounds. Generally speaking, I try to come out of the first six rounds with my Anchor RB, 4 wide receivers, and a tight end. If for some reason I took at quarterback in the first six rounds (i.e. in Round 5 or 6), I probably did it at the expense of getting a tight end. Very rarely, I will wind up with a dead zone running back, but only if it’s a particular player I’ve identified beforehand as a second round talent. Guys that fit the bill this year are Rhamondre Stevenson (going as the 2nd pick of Round 3, so pretty close to a 2nd rounder), Aaron Jones (Round 3), Dameon Pierce (Round 4), Alvin Kamara (Round 5), and Alex Mattison (Round 6). The “dead zone” guys I want nothing to do with this season are Najee Harris, Kenny Walker, J.K. Dobbins, Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, Jahmyr Gibbs, Dalvin Cook, Cam Akers, James Conner, Isiah Pacheco, and David Montgomery. And some of these guys are decent players. Dameon Pierce, for example, is an excellent RB2; it’s just that at that range of the draft I see more value in guys like Keenan Allen, Calvin Ridley, and Chris Godwin.
Instead of the dead zone guys, try to get your RB2 in Rounds 7-10. There are several useful players going in that range this year, like D’Andre Swift, Rachaad White, and Samaje Perine. You’ll be fine with those guys as your RB2. Behind them, take rookies with a chance to earn significant role - think players like Zach Charbonnet, Tank Bigsby, De’Von Achane, and Roschon Johnson - and pass-catchers who have a safe weekly floor that you can use during your bye weeks - players like Michael Carter, James Cook, Nyheim Hines, Antonio Gibson, and Kenny Gainwell. Don’t worry about what might happen if one of your top two guys gets hurt. There are running backs available all the time due to injury; just check out our Weekly Hail Mary column for advice on who to pick up that week. Running back, believe it or not, is one of the easiest positions to stream. Even mediocre talents can put up useful weeks when they’re getting fed 20 touches a game.Don’t draft injured, suspended, or unemployed players. Ok, so I’ll admit, this is more of a guideline than a hard-and-fast rule, as what I really mean is “don’t draft injured or suspended players if you’ll need to rely on them.” If you’re drafting a hurt player with one of your last picks and you immediately toss him on IR and pick someone else up, I’ve got no problem with that. What I’m trying to get you to avoid is using premium picks on players who won’t be available to you for significant chunks of the season.
There are so few games each NFL season that every single one matters. You really can’t afford to go into a season relying on players who are sure to miss games. Consider the case of Jameson Williams this year. Due to a gambling suspension, the dude is going to miss six games. That’s almost half of the regular season in fantasy. If you’re drafting him as one of your starters, is your team even going to be in contention by the time he returns? And once he does come back, is he going to be rusty? Out of shape? More susceptible to injury? It’s just not worth the risk. Generally speaking, I am not going to be drafting any injured or suspended player as a starter or key backup. I’m trying to minimize risk to maximize my chances of success. And I’m also not drafting unemployed guys in the single-digit rounds. Unless I can get them late, or it’s a best ball league, I’m not going to have any shares of Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, or Ezekiel Elliott. We don’t know if they’re even going to be on an NFL team this year, let alone acquire fantasy points. (If these guys sign after this article is published, then yes, by all means, start drafting them again.)
Try to get a difference-maker at tight end. I’m not advocating going overboard here. And I wouldn’t take any of the tight ends in the first round other than Kelce, as the opportunity cost is too high. But I’m fine with Mark Andrews in Round 3, George Kittle in Round 5, and Kyle Pitts in Round 6. You can gain a tremendous advantage on at least half of your league-mates by having one of those stellar point producers in your lineup. If I don’t get one of those guys , I’m going to be the last guy in my league to take a tight end and hope he pans out, or just stream the position. Just focus on athletic guys tied to good quarterbacks. Irv Smith or Gerald Everett, anyone?
Emphasize youth, though not necessarily rookies, at the skill positions. It’s a young man’s game. And generally speaking, the players who tend to outperform their ADP are in their first couple years in the league. By a time a guy is in year 3 or 4, we pretty much know what he is. But rookies? Second year players? There can be value in the uncertainty; they’re often priced where they are because we don’t yet know what they are. Second-year players who did not have All-Pro rookie seasons often present the best values. Last year in this column, we endorsed drafting guys like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Travis Etienne, and Devonta Smith. Those guys ended up vastly outproducing their draft positions, and propelled many managers to fantasy titles.
This year, no quarterbacks seem to fit the bill, though I’m certainly intrigued by Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder as backups. I’m not touching Kenny Pickett. He was old as a rookie and not terribly productive, and only had one productive year in college (when he had Biletnikoff award winner Jordan Addison as his primary wideout). Pickett seems more likely to be a bust than a viable NFL starter.
At wide receiver, this year I’d be looking at Christian Watson, Drake London, Jahan Dotson, and Treylon Burks (and maybe George Pickens if you still believe, but I’ve bailed on him). At running back, it would be Brian Robinson and Dameon Pierce. You’ll notice I didn’t mention Kenny Walker, and that is intentional: the price is currently too high for my liking.
It would not be a surprise to see any of these guys take the next step forward into fantasy stardom. Given their relative cost, you’re probably better off taking them at ADP than some of the veterans at their same positions going at the same range. You know what you’re getting with the vets, so there isn’t much upside to them. These younger cats may have a bit more risk to their profile, but they also have substantially more upside.
Take your kicker and defense late, but before the last round of your draft. Thankfully, by now most savvy managers have abandoned the idea of taking kickers and defenses early. However, many have taken the strategy to the opposite extreme, waiting until the final two frames of the draft to grab their kicker and defense. Think that through, folks: if everyone in your league is doing that, where is the edge to be gained? Instead, I like to start this run in the third-to-last round of the draft and grab my kicker. If you get Justin Tucker or Daniel Carlson, you’ve probably got a “leg up” (dad joke!) on your competition most weeks at that position. All you’ve really sacrificed is a long-shot RB or WR, and the guy you’ll be taking in the final round at one of those positions is probably just as much of a long shot/lotto ticket.
I say you’ll be taking your long shot RB or WR in the final round because in the second-to-last round you’ll be taking your defense. I’m definitely one who advocates streaming defenses, but nevertheless I still try to identify a defense that has a soft schedule the first few weeks of the season so that I might not have to drop that D right away after Week 1. If you’re taking your defense in the second to last round, and the rest of your league is waiting until the final frame, then again, you’re gaining an advantage. Little advantages like that add up in this game.
Scratch lottery tickets in the double digit rounds. This is basically the opposite of Rule #1. In the early rounds, you want high ceiling, high floor. In the later rounds, you want high ceiling, low floor. These latter rounds are where you do your gambling.
Essentially, this Rule is similar to Rule #8. You want to be throwing darts at high-upside young guys, or guys in uncertain situations, in round 10 and beyond. These rounds present some of the best opportunities to get significant ROI compared to ADP. If these players don’t work out, who cares? Your opportunity cost wasn’t significant, and you can just cut bait and pick up another player off the waiver wire.
So focus on young players with high upside. For example, if I’m drafting a Ravens wideout in the double digit rounds, I’m always opting for Zay Flowers over Odell Beckham. Beckham has more name recognition, but he also hasn’t played a regular season football game since 2021, and hasn’t had a 1,000-yard season since before COVID was a thing. We don’t know if Flowers will ever hit that type of a yardage total, but there’s at least the potential that he could smash it. Similarly, I’m taking Marvin Mims over Darius Slayton. We know what Slayton is in New York’s offense (a perimeter player who has a couple good games a year); we don’t yet know what Mims is. What if he’s a star? I’m taking RB Zach Charbonnet (ADP 123.6) over someone like A.J. Dillon (98.7). Dillon isn’t taking over Green Bay’s backfield unless Aaron Jones gets hurt, whereas Charbonnet could immediately become the Seahawks’ goal line and passing down back.
The takeaway: Don’t waste valuable draft capital on marginal veteran talents. There’s no upside there. Instead, scratch lottery tickets in the double-digit rounds.
We can’t guarantee that you’ll win a championship if you follow these rules. But you’re going to be pretty darn likely to make it to the fantasy playoffs. Once you’re there, anything can happen.