Weekly Hail Mary: Week 7
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues.
Caveat: We have arrived at the point in the season where running backs, in particular, are unbelievably scare, as most guys with a pulse are already rostered. So the deep plays listed here are of the “if you’re truly desperate” variety. These backs aren’t likely to post a top-24 week, but they should at least get a little bit of work.
The Hail Marys for Week 7:
Running Backs
Nyheim Hines, Colts (16%). Hold your nose, if you must, but Hines is seeing a decent workload as the Colts’ passing down back. Aside from Week 2, he has seen at least four targets per game, which is great volume for a running back, and he has had at least 3 catches and at least 25 yards receiving for three weeks straight. (Hey, it’s not a league-winner, but it’s better than a goose egg.) With a game against Houston on tap in Week 7, the Colts could be facing a negative game script trying to keep up with the Texans’ high-flying offense, which means Hines is likely to be on the field. Opportunity is king in fantasy.
Alexander Mattison, Vikings (22%). Mattison has 50+ rushing yards in three of his past four games, including 63 yards on 14 attempts this past Sunday. The problem is that he adds absolutely nothing through the air, making him less valuable than someone like Nyheim Hines. He’s also fairly game-script dependent. In Vikings wins, he’s averaging more than 10 carries and 55 yards per game. In losses, it’s 3 carries and 15 yards. In Week 7 the Vikings face the Lions, who have been bottom five against opposing running backs so far, so this could be a good week to fire up Mattison. Just remember that this is a floor play.
Mark Walton, Dolphins (4%). It looks like his stock is rising as Kalen Ballage’s is falling. On Sunday against Washington, Walton had six carries for 32 yards and five catches on six targets for 43 yards. All things considered, five catches and 75 yards from scrimmage isn’t a bad stat line. There’s also the potential for his opportunity to grow, considering how well he played when finally given a shot.
Speculative add: If you’ve got the bench space, it could be worthwhile to roster Jay Ajayi. He is finally healthy following last season’s ACL tear and has told teams that he is now available for workouts. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a RB-needy team sign him down the stretch, and he has proven in the past that he has bell-cow ability.
Wide Receivers
Start of the Week: Dante Pettis, 49ers (17%). A recommended play for Week 6, Pettis led all 49ers wide receivers in targets, catches, and yards. In Week 7, he has a date with a burnable Washington secondary. Fire him up with confidence.
Darius Slayton, Giants (3%). For as long as Sterling Shepard is out, Slayton will continue to get opportunities. He has averaged more than six targets per game over his past two games, and he gets the Cardinals in Week 7. Golden Tate will almost assuredly draw the coverage from Patrick Peterson, which should open up plenty of opportunities for Slayton elsewhere.
Demaryius Thomas, Jets (4%). What’s old is new again. It wasn’t that long ago that DT was a top-5 NFL wide receiver, back when he had competent quarterback play. WIth Sam Darnold finally back under center for Gang Green, Thomas had 4 grabs for 62 yards. Against Dallas. One of the top-two stingiest defenses in the NFL against opposing wide receivers. But buyer beware: he trades in that tough matchup against Dallas with an even tougher matchup against New England in Week 7.
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox, Bills (7%). The Bills are coming off a bye and get to play at home against the hapless Dolphins, who are terrible against the tight end. He’s averaging four targets per game since Week 2, which isn’t a ton, but hey, if you weren’t desperate, you wouldn’t be looking at this site. Given his size and the Bills’ generally pint-sized receivers (especially after the trade of Zay Jones), you’d expect that Josh Allen will be looking the big tight end’s way in the red zone.
Luke Willson, Seahawks (0%). Will Dissly suffered a season-ending Achilles injury on Sunday. Willson is the next man up. He’s not tremendously athletically gifted, but neither was Dissly. Dissly was seeing a huge target share, so there is at least a decent opportunity for Willson here.
Name that doesn’t qualify but might be available in your league: Hunter Henry, Chargers. Henry was dropped in a ton of leagues when he got hurt to start the season, but he’s back as of Week 6. He is available in 40% of Yahoo! leagues, so check your waiver wire. He’s certainly a better add than the other names on this list.
Bye week teams: Browns, Buccaneers, Panthers, Steelers