John Elway is a Crummy GM

Admittedly, the title is clickbait.  John Elway, after all, has made two Super Bowls, and won one, as a General Manager.  Most executives can't say that, which means he must have done something right.  But I dare say that reaching those Super Bowls had a significant amount to do with Peyton Manning - perhaps the smartest QB ever - and winning one had everything to do with a defense consisting largely of stars signed from elsewhere: future Hall of Famer Demarcus Ware, perennial pro bowler Aqib Talib, and safety TJ Ward.  Plainly, Elway has a good eye when it comes to evaluating talent already in the NFL.  

But when it comes to evaluating college talent, Elway is really, really shoddy.  Embarrassingly shoddy.  Since taking over as GM, the only stellar player he has drafted in the first Round is Von Miller in 2011.  And we shouldn't pat him on the back too much for that, as it would have been difficult to screw that pick up.  The 2011 draft was one of the most loaded in recent memory.  Aside from the quarterbacks and DT Nick Fairley, every single player who was selected in the top 16 that year has made a Pro Bowl.  And Denver was picking second.  They had a pretty good shot of hitting no matter who they picked.  That was the draft that featured first round picks A.J. Green, Patrick Peterson, JJ Watt, Julio Jones, and Tyron Smith, among others.  Elway really couldn't go wrong. 

Aside from that draft, the best player Elway has selected in Round 1 (present year excluded) is Bradley Roby.  Decent player, but by no means elite.  His other first round picks have been mediocre or worse, including Sylvester Williams (2013), Shane Ray (2015), Paxton Lynch (2016), and Garret Bolles (2017).

He hasn't fared better in Rounds 2 and 3, either.  Aside from colossal busts like Brock Osweiler (2012), Montee Ball (2013), and Cody Latimer (2014), Elway has drafted mediocre types in the second round like Rahim Moore (2011), Ty Sambrailo (2015), and Adam Gotsis (2016).  I have not included Demarcus Walker (2017), as it is still too early to tell what he'll be.  Elway's "hits" in Round 2 consist only of Derek Wolfe (2012) and, arguably, Orlando Franklin (2011).  In other words, he hasn't made a good second round pick since 2012.

Round 3 yields similar results: Nate Irving (2011), Ronnie Hillman (2012), Kayvon Webster (2013), Michael Schofield (2014), Jeff Heuerman (2015), Justin Simmons (2016), and Carlos Henderson (2017).  I think it's fair to include Henderson here, even though he was only picked last year, since it's he's already been cut.  And who is the best of that group?  Hillman?  If so, that's weak.  If it's Hillman, that again means Elway hasn't had a "hit" since 2012.   

Rounds 1-3 are where you typically build the core of your team.  Guys selected in those rounds are expected to be starters and meaningful contributors.  Although you can always find guys in later rounds - as Elway did with Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan in Rounds 5 and 6 (2012) - it's certainly less likely. 

The bottom line is that under Elway's leadership, the guys drafted in Rounds 1-3 have rarely become anything better than average.  He really hasn't "hit" on a player in one of those rounds since 2012. 

That is why the Broncos were picking in the Top 5 this year, and it is why John Elway is a crummy GM.